Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 367
    MEMBERS
  • 20089
    MESSAGES
  • 0
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Belmont Stks DogsUp Delta Details   Triple Crown

Started 5/21/18 by DogsUpBigE; 7728 views.
In reply toRe: msg 24
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

5/23/18

And in case nobody has heard, My Boy Jack is not running in the Belmont Stakes.  He's going to turf in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby in July. 

"The Wynn Las Vegas' latest 
Belmont Stakes odds listed My Boy Jack as an 8-1 co-third choice."  

Really?   8-1 co-3rd choice?   sheesh.  Thank god for parimutuel betting, wished he had stayed in and taken a lot of $$

 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

5/23/18

Was just sayin' Santana was riding against all those big money riders and he got ITM more than they did on Preakness Day.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

5/23/18

I read that defection coming and it really is a disappointment and as they say: Not in a good way.

He would have been way over bet and as I mentioned above here had little chances of success with the predictable fractions on a dry track.  

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

5/23/18

Yeah, seriously. At this point, I just hope we get a close to full field. We might need to turn to the Turn-Tos for value in the Belmont.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

5/24/18

Enticed is a horse I didn't like for the Derby. I commented at the time that he doesn't seem to like being in close quarters. I saw that in a couple of his losses. However, in a small field, on a track with those sweeping turns, he could be very effective. He is probably the biggest of the horses that ran in the Derby, even taller than Justify. Some of the biggest blowout wins were accomplished by large horses like Secretariat, Risen Star, Easy Goer, and Point Given to name a few off the top of my head.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

5/24/18

I doubt Enticed can win but I do think he's live for a piece of the action unless, of course, what I thought at the end of The Wood comes to pass & the distance will be his undoing.  I'm leaning towards using him at this stage.

I made a mistake when Tonalist won by short-changing him out of the Peter Pan & I don't want to do that again with Blended Citizen.  I'm leaving him in the mix even though my visual impression was that he didn't look like he wanted 3 more furlongs when he won the PP.

Smarty's breakdown has influenced me to keep him in at this stage.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

5/24/18

Well since I have not done the immense amount of pedigree work done by others on this forum, I tend to look more closely at the individual horses, attempting to predict their potential performance, based mostly(not entirely) on their past performances. On the breeding side of things, I look at the fact that his dam, It's Tricky, was Grade 1 placed at 10f, her sire, Mineshaft, won at 10f, and his sire, AP Indy, won at 12f. Enticed's sire, Medaglia D'Oro, was second in the Belmont. That's enough for me to take him seriously, even for the win should Justify tank.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/24/18

SameSteve G said:

Smarty's breakdown has influenced me to keep him in at this stage.

I know you know this is cmp data that's  helpful for some to use and not 

a stand alone data.

I was concerned with the stamina number 12 or better for the winner or the top 4 finishers

touted on here and my concern is using the right number and the most important part

is how many from the group that Qualify for this angle.

i'm not done with all of them , if we have 10 entrants and 9 qualify for the angle it doesn't mean 

that much to pick the right 4. That stamina number is only part of the cmp angles

and i know many cmp angles for the Belmont and i'll add some tidbits that could help.

I know what you are thinking, are the contenders that look positive getting the same feed as Justify or audible

and you can't cap drugs.because of that all angles performance or pedigree that say who the top 4 

should be, doesn't mean its a level playing field.

you will never know what you don't know.. lol , give Giacomo my love

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

5/24/18

smartyslew said:

you will never know what you don't know

Ain't that the truth.  Like we've been saying for a long time, you can't handicap the special marinara, so the only way to play is to play as though everything is on the square.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

5/25/18

Looks like an audible was called on Audible. Todd actually has a longer relationship with Winstar than Baffert. It is what it is. And surprising! No speculations! 

The only players saying I can come up with (hmmm sounds like speculation~ee~ onknee) is: When there's a lot of money on the table, strange things happen. "

So Doggie-boy will continue now not to Overanalyze and stay Street Smart.

Said  in  Chrome Belmont Stakes ~ even money go to window, not ...not.

YouTube vid of Justy arriving to his digs apres Preky.... Robusto!

Bob debating one work or two.

TOP