Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 360
    MEMBERS
  • 19933
    MESSAGES
  • 2
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

belmont stakes contenders updated conduit   Triple Crown

Started 5/22/18 by smartyslew; 5080 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/28/18

i was on unbridled in the tc series and the Classic, i liked him a lot and i didn't know squat
about Fappiano.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/18

for those interested there are only 2 contenders so far on the probs

that have a cmp conduit that has won the belmont

thats from 14 probs or maybe's that i'm looking at

--

Justify 1h-noontime 1954 high gun CS classification

bandua  8c cherokee rose   1962 jaipur  BS classification
-

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/5/18

What conduit classifications are best for the BEL?

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/8/18

Interesting thing I noticed about the mare's profile (cmp) for Gronkowski and Restoring Hope, and to some extent, Hofburg as well is that they separate into 2 different paths.   What is difficult to figure out is, comparing it to their dosage profile (sire) which side cancels out what, and which they will actually use in a race.....and if that depends on the distance or not.  

I knew Free Drop Billy could get the distance with his 17 classic points from his sire, then people would see those "4's in his B&I and say "he's not fast enough", but he's got PLENTY of speed from his mare's side as shown in the CMP profile.  He just hasn't been called on much to use it.  So maybe it only kicks in at certain distances?

This is why just looking at sire side or just dam side doesn't work........it's the combination that makes it possible for horse to do what it does.


 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

i didn't do the cmp stamina number again this year. 

some would add that number to the horses cd number and divide by 2 or use the number of that total.

i have in the past and i know you have seen it before add the cmp index number and the cd together for distance.

and divide by 2 . average below 1.00 was good. today with these numbers maybe a little higher.

toss the highest number for the win.

the stamina formula number had a average of .79 for derby winners.

i can't remember the belmont number .

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

using the dosage points or looking for classicity for 0-0 stamina pts is different.

use the cd and cmp index number together it is better than the cmp and dosage together 

i found out the hard way with research.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

free drop billy BS   cmp 10-4-0-10-5 speed 14 stamina 15 index 1.20

his b is a 10 and his p is 5 with that 14/15 looks like balance the formula for the index is real high because of his B
that alone is a high index for the belmont winner. Check the BICSP for the break down.

restoring hope B  cmp 10-5-0-6-5  speed 15 stamina 11 index 1.56

1.56 index i think would be a new record both of these with the 0  in the middle (C) are mostly sprinters

justify B is higher than his p but hes a front runner and has carried his speed 10f

and is the only one in the field with a winning cmp conduit for the belmont. 

had to stop , i  erased justify by accident and couldn't remember it. J

ustify      cmp       10-3-4-6-7 speed 13   stamina 13   index 1.13,  triads 17-13-17   ( that is positive) very balanced

Msg 991.41 deleted
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/9/18

i think i said  1.56 index i think would be a new record both of these with the 0  in the middle (C) are mostly sprinter

i thought i sent you the bc sprint data back in the day when we were doing the bc races and that was long time ago.

you said as I don't see how that, plus his DI = 1.74 CD = 0.42  indicates a sprinter?  i never said anything like that,

did you get the email i sent you about free drop billy.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/9/18

yes, i got it, I deleted my post here so never mind.  And thank you.   :)

I need to learn more about reading profiles.  

TOP