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belmont stakes contenders updated conduit   Triple Crown

Started 5/22/18 by smartyslew; 5193 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/8/18

Interesting thing I noticed about the mare's profile (cmp) for Gronkowski and Restoring Hope, and to some extent, Hofburg as well is that they separate into 2 different paths.   What is difficult to figure out is, comparing it to their dosage profile (sire) which side cancels out what, and which they will actually use in a race.....and if that depends on the distance or not.  

I knew Free Drop Billy could get the distance with his 17 classic points from his sire, then people would see those "4's in his B&I and say "he's not fast enough", but he's got PLENTY of speed from his mare's side as shown in the CMP profile.  He just hasn't been called on much to use it.  So maybe it only kicks in at certain distances?

This is why just looking at sire side or just dam side doesn't work........it's the combination that makes it possible for horse to do what it does.


 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

i didn't do the cmp stamina number again this year. 

some would add that number to the horses cd number and divide by 2 or use the number of that total.

i have in the past and i know you have seen it before add the cmp index number and the cd together for distance.

and divide by 2 . average below 1.00 was good. today with these numbers maybe a little higher.

toss the highest number for the win.

the stamina formula number had a average of .79 for derby winners.

i can't remember the belmont number .

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

using the dosage points or looking for classicity for 0-0 stamina pts is different.

use the cd and cmp index number together it is better than the cmp and dosage together 

i found out the hard way with research.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

free drop billy BS   cmp 10-4-0-10-5 speed 14 stamina 15 index 1.20

his b is a 10 and his p is 5 with that 14/15 looks like balance the formula for the index is real high because of his B
that alone is a high index for the belmont winner. Check the BICSP for the break down.

restoring hope B  cmp 10-5-0-6-5  speed 15 stamina 11 index 1.56

1.56 index i think would be a new record both of these with the 0  in the middle (C) are mostly sprinters

justify B is higher than his p but hes a front runner and has carried his speed 10f

and is the only one in the field with a winning cmp conduit for the belmont. 

had to stop , i  erased justify by accident and couldn't remember it. J

ustify      cmp       10-3-4-6-7 speed 13   stamina 13   index 1.13,  triads 17-13-17   ( that is positive) very balanced

Msg 991.41 deleted
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/9/18

i think i said  1.56 index i think would be a new record both of these with the 0  in the middle (C) are mostly sprinter

i thought i sent you the bc sprint data back in the day when we were doing the bc races and that was long time ago.

you said as I don't see how that, plus his DI = 1.74 CD = 0.42  indicates a sprinter?  i never said anything like that,

did you get the email i sent you about free drop billy.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/9/18

yes, i got it, I deleted my post here so never mind.  And thank you.   :)

I need to learn more about reading profiles.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/9/18

luv you to!!!
Good luck today

In reply toRe: msg 1
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/9/18

added the cmp furlong distance for each horse
from Bill Lathrops formula
--
Justify      cmp       10-3-4-6-7 speed 13   stamina 13   index 1.13,  triads 17-13-17   ( that is positive)
1h noontime  conduit winner yes  furlong distance 11.5 

hofburg  IS  cmp      12-4-1-5-10 speed 16  stamina15  index   1.12 triads 17-10-16  (high in the wings B & P) balance  2d dazzling no=derby winners yes,  furlong 11.5
----

bravazo C  cmp     6-3-4-6-6  speed 9  stamina  12  index .86  triads  13-13-16
A 10 no   furlong  12.6
_-

tenfold I   cmp   7-5-2-5-6  speed 12 stamina 11  index 1.11  triads 14-12-13
3n no , family yes furlong 11.6
_

Blended citizen BC  cmp  8-6-3-7-7 speed 14 stamina 14  index 1.04  triads 17-16-17 ( balance & positive) 9e no, family yes   furlong  11.83
-

vino rosso  C cmp 5-2-5-7-6  speed 7  stamina 13 index .71 triads 12-14-18
-2f  no  furlong 13.4

free drop billy BS   cmp 10-4-0-10-5 speed 14 stamina 15 index 1.20  triads 14-14-15
4m no family yes  furlong 11.3
-

gronkowski  P   cmp 7-3--0-3-11  speed 10 stamina 14 index  .68  triads 10-6-14
9f  no, family yes  furlong 13.66
-
restoring hope B  cmp 10-5-0-6-5  speed 15 stamina 11 index 1.56 triads 15-11--11
11 no family yes  furlong 10.27
-
noble indy  cmp 9-3-4-4-6 speed 12 stamina  10 index 1.25 triads 16-11-14
1L no, family yes  furlong 11.04
--
In reply toRe: msg 45
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/16/18

message 45 I added the cmp furlong distancefor each horse from the cmp guru's formula
gronkowski and vino rosso had the 2 furthest distances. (top 4 , 11.5 furlongs or better)

gronkowski  P   cmp 7-3--0-3-11  speed 10 stamina 14 index  .68  triads 10-6-14
9f  no, family yes  furlong 13.66  2nd place
--
vino rosso  C cmp 5-2-5-7-6  speed 7  stamina 13 index .71 triads 12-14-18
-2f  no  furlong 13.4  4th place
--
Justify      cmp       10-3-4-6-7 speed 13   stamina 13   index 1.13,  triads 17-13-17   ( that is positive)
1h noontime  conduit winner yes  furlong distance 11.5   WINNER
____
hofburg  IS  cmp      12-4-1-5-10 speed 16  stamina15  index   1.12 triads 17-10-16  (high in the wings B & P) balance  2d dazzling no=derby winners yes,  furlong 11.5   3RD
----
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