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Meet the Milers   Handicapping

Started 5/28/18 by Plus2lbs; 11010 views.
Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

8/4/18

Mucho to like..

  • Edited August 10, 2018 1:33 am  by  Plus2lbs
Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

8/11/18

Here we go..

A few runners mentioned along the way that impressed so far in theses mile contests step into the big time today.  Shipping around the country and at the $pa for GR 1's.

Can't overlook Oscar Performance in the Arlington Million,  in the Beverly D we have the Chad Brown French import Thais, and in the Fourstardave at $aratoga we have Made You Look, from Chad Brown, who I think is really coming into his own. Also, we have fan favourite Heart to Heart, who will try to take them gate to wire but will have some competition on the front end by another from these threads Voodoo Song from Linda Rice, gate to wire winner of the Forbidden Apple Stks last out.

All in all, I am glad I started this thread, as it gives me an "eye" for the horse and I feel that bit more confidant when I make my pick.

Fourstardave..I can't see a wire job in this race so tossing Heart to Heart and Voodoo Song.  Made You Look is interesting, but Castellano getting off and going to the #2 Delta Prince, makes me go hmmmm..

Think it's comes down to the 2/4/7, but giving the edge to the #7 Yoshida to take it on the line.

Turf course really throwing up some mudpies..

Took a flyer with #3 Divisidero..

  • Edited August 11, 2018 7:20 pm  by  Plus2lbs
Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

8/15/18

Sar R8 AOC 1 Mile F+M Turf..

Nice feature..let's take a look.

Yes..yes..these are the type of races that get my juices flowing.

Exceptional field..up n comers..shippers..international flavor 

Stong connections..layoffs..solid workouts..tightly matched..

Lone speed who can't seem to close the deal..a few Daisy cutters coming flying late..can they get there..and which one can..hmmm.

$$$ to be made if on the right horse.

  • Edited August 16, 2018 10:42 am  by  Plus2lbs
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

8/16/18

I agree, an interesting race.  I have to try to beat Brown.  :)

I am leaning pretty hard into the filly drawn outside for Clement, Sister Sunday.  She got into a world of trouble last out at Gulf but still came running late.  Cutting back.  Should be able to tuck in from outside & hopefully find room this time.  Leparooo gets off the schneid.  

6/1 m/line looks about right to me but I won't accept less & would love more.

Good luck, Plus.  :)

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

8/16/18

Me thinks you could get more..my feeling is around 10/1. Worth a flyer at that number. Ran on in last and was gaining at the end..winner got first jump, cut the corner and was gone. Leparoo jumps back on, not sure if that is an upgrade but he did win on the filly.  In the mix..

Leparoo off the schnied in R4..

  • Edited August 16, 2018 3:00 pm  by  Plus2lbs
Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

8/16/18

Chad (Turf Stakes) Brown has two entered here, #1 Data Dependent and #7 Altea.

#1 Data Dependant..G3 placed as 2yo, beaten fav next out in a G3 first start as 3yo.

Been racing at this level downstate with no success..enters off a steady stream of works.

More Than Ready filly has had multiple tries at this surface/ distance.

Castellano knows the filly and should be primed for a best effort. 

Don't believe her best gets it done.

#7 Altea..m/l fav at 5/2..lukewarm, if you ask me..will more than likely go to evens or less.

Wide sweeping move in last, G3, going 1 1/16, could not sustain after hitting the front..has had chances, but to me, she hasn't ran to expectations.

#4 Emmy Performance...Amerman Racing homebed is half, to the unfortunate Oscar Performance and  one of my fav's, Oscar Nominated.

Cuts back from last and with the blazing closing speed in the family, should be flying late..m/l of 8/1 seems generous to me..feel 5/1 or less at post time. Could have a major say in the outcome.

#9 Cool Beans..great name. Placed 1st thru disqualification..cool beans..but has never won a race.  Always runs her race..should get a run for your money at close to m/l of 9/2. Cut back in distance might help her hold on..depends if other jocks are up for it..I think she gets swamped in the final 1/16th

Playing the Grand Slam here R5 into the feature R8..need to come in top 3 the first 3 races and hit the last.

Interesting bet.

Starts here with #1 Thatcher St...can Leparoo go for two?  

Hope so..top 3 will do. That's the Leparoo I knew..

Anyway,  back to the feature .

Looks like turf course has really dried out..early speed seems to be holding on.

#2 Hail..Mott trained..first time turf..half to another fav of mine Close Hatches..

FF oozes class..running long on dirt, on class alone..me thinks will like the surface/ distance switch..by Tapit, who has been known to get some pretty good turf milers..m/l of 15/1 suggests no hope here..I disagree.

#3 Katie Cruel.. Graham Motion trained filly.  Competitive at lower level in Ireland over soft going. 1st time lasix and gets Jose Ortiz up..fast works down at Fair Hill.

Motion not having a good meet but this one seems well meant..ground could be her undoing..I'll watch one.

#6 Quivery..long layoff..trainer not a household name but Johnny V hops up and that's always a plus ...strong works..big drop in class..1st time lasix and gets in light..8/1 m/l seems generous..dangerous.

#8 Subtle Step..Shug is on fire this meet..don't think this horse can compete here.  Keenland grad and maiden winner..coming off layoff..could be a setup for next out back at keenland..beat me says I.

Will watch the tote board for help..

Well here's my take..

Money coming on the #3..

I think gonna be hot, contested pace..hope to see the Tapit flying late.

#2 Hail

Getting sick of these walk the dog turf races in NY..

Come on man..lone speed and no one wants to pressure on a slow pace..

Faak me.

  • Edited August 16, 2018 5:25 pm  by  Plus2lbs
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

8/16/18

Brrrr.  Cool Beans.  Like you said, unchallenged lone speed.

No excuses whatsoever for Sister Sunday.  So flat in the drive had the ants ducking.

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

9/15/18

Let's pick up where we left off,

Woodbine Mile..

Back with #8 Divisidero 11/1..

Ran to the odds..

Congrats to the winner, fine comeback.

  • Edited September 16, 2018 12:27 pm  by  Plus2lbs
Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

10/6/18

Shadwell Mile

Full, competitive field..who will jump up and take this prestigious GR.1.

Many in here I have spoken of this year..a few winners, more also rans. Nice to see them coming together to see who is the best of the best ...who's turn is it today?

One I have liked early is my choice to get the prize..Next Shares.

ML 15/1..I think is going to float up in this field of better known runners..Ran against m/l favourite Heart To Heart out West and had a bit of bother in the lane, still ran with aplomb and came up short. After a minor freshening, came back and won impressive 3rd of the layoff and looks to my eyes to be full of confidence heading into this race. The step up in class is justified.

New jockey Tyler Gaffalione knows how to get to the wire first and I have faith in his abilities for sure.

Although this is probably the toughest mile contest in N.A. this year, me thinks, and quite a few could win, I wouldnt be surprised if Next Shares jumps up and comes flying late the get the honors.

Good luck to those playing.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

10/6/18

Mr. Misunderstood was borderline at 12/1 for me (post 12 is tough) but now that he's drifted up to 19-1, I will bet him across the board.  He has found the winner's circle 10 out of 14 on the turf.  Plus for consistency, plus for running style & I forgive the flat effort at KD in his last.  Might be a good tightener, though.  

You're #1 has drifted, as you predicted, up to 24/1.  I hope one of us hits.  

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