Ginger (TGANNON) said...
Same thing the polls said 4 years ago.
It's not, actually.
In 2016 there were far more undecideds, which broke heavily for Trump on Election Day.
In 2016, Trump was within the margin of error in the battleground states that he ended up winning, and there was measurable movement in the polls his direction that no one reported on.
In 2020, there are very few undecideds. In 2020 he is behind in nearly all if the battleground states he needs to win by a much more significant margin...well outside the margin of error. The movement in EVERY poll, both nationally and state by state is towards Biden.
Trump's one strength is in the enthusiasm of his base to vote for him. But he NEEDS those swing voters and undecideds in addition to his loyal base...and there just AREN'T enough of them this time to help him make up the deficit in the polls.
Mathematically, he would not only have to sweep ALL of the battleground states, but he would also have to win at least ONE state that currently leans towards Biden in order to win the Electoral College.
That scenario is extremely unlikely, and getting less likely every day.
There's still time left, but this is the reality on the ground. And even Trump's own internal polling shows this.
Can he win? Technically, anything is possible. Practically, it is extremely doubtful.
Can he pull the inside straight twice in a row?
I wouldn't bet on it.