Lame Duck Baseball Association

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20-team modified APBA basic game mail league founded in 1981

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Rookie Draft XL   Rookie Draft

Started Mar-14 by bruinskip; 61 views.

From: bruinskip


The attached spreadsheet includes the consensus results of 18 APBA league rookie drafts, and an analysis of last weekend’s LDBA draft results in comparison to the consensus of the other 17 leagues.

The first tab includes results of the 18 drafts with a consensus order of players who were eligible for the LDBA rookie draft.  The competition for top spot on the consensus list emerged as a three-way race with a photo finish, but the LDBA opted for a different direction, with Braves pitcher Mike Soroka going #1 overall. 

The top three spots on the consensus list were separated by less than four-tenths of a draft slot.  LDBA #3 pick Pete Alonso (2.50 ADP) was the consensus #1 selection among APBA leagues by the slimmest of margins over #2 Fernando Tatis, Jr. (2.61 ADP), and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (2.89 ADP).

Reflecting the extraordinary depth of talent at the top of this year’s draft, no fewer than five different players went #1 overall:  Tatis (6 leagues), Alonso (5), Guerrero (4), Soroka (2), Paddack (1).  Yordan Alvarez (#4 consensus) falling all the way to #20 ranks among the most stunning outcomes in LDBA draft history, perhaps providing context for Shohei Ohtani’s surprising slip to #11 in last year’s draft.  It would appear DH-types are not held in high regard in the LDBA.

The second tab compares the consensus order of the other 17 leagues to the LDBA XL draft results and assigns weighted value to each selection whereby higher picks have incrementally more weight than lower picks.

The third tab ranks LDBA draft picks by slot divergence from the 17-league consensus list.  Top five picks in ADP advantage were Yimi Garcia (#137 LDBA/#81 consensus), Tyler Beede (#144/#97), Harold Castro (#150/#104), Griffin Canning (#80/#35), and Jacob Stallings (#106/#65).  Last year’s top 5 ADP value list included Willie Calhoun and Lucas Giolito. 

Players picked substantially above slot according to consensus included Corbin Burnes (#54 LDBA, #128 consensus), Colten Brewer (#116/#169), Dylan Moore (#107/#159), DJ Stewart (#147/#199), and Scott Barlow (#84/#135t).  Austin Allen (#115 consensus) and Jose Trevino (#119) were a couple of potential value picks that went undrafted.

Tab four ranks each LDBA pick for weighted value in comparison to the 17-team consensus list.  Value = Difference between LDBA and Consensus draft slots x 100/Consensus rank.  This allows us to weight the picks to give progressively more value to draft slots earlier in the draft.

Top weighted value picks were Alvarez (#20 LDBA/#4 consensus), Pete Alonso (#3/#1), Canning (#80/#35), Bryan Reynolds (#23/#12), and Merrill Kelly (#72/#38).  Lowest value picks were Soroka (#1 LDBA/#7 consensus), Brandon Woodruff (#7/#17), Burnes (#54/#128), Kyle Tucker (#13/#26), and Austin Riley (#16/#31).

The final tab groups draft picks by LDBA team and ranks team performance in relation to the 17-team consensus list.  Thanks to Alvarez, Bangor gleaned the most total value from its draft picks according to consensus, followed by Cleveland and Lebanon.  Midlothian converted a bushel of rancid lemons into a Country Time franchise, parlaying three picks in the bottom rounds into the fifth most ADP value.  Bangor was tops in value per pick, with the Ironmen ranking second and the Buckeyes third.

At the other end of the scale, the consensus list was not enthusiastic about the drafts of San Diego, Portland, and Vancouver.  Checking in with the most picks (14), Cascade performed closest to par in relation to ADP with some outlier picks in both directions offsetting.  

This assessment of how well each team was able to maximize the value of picks held on draft day, either through good fortune or shrewd drafting, does not provide an analysis of the overall quality of any team’s draft.  But it’s interesting to see how the player evaluations of LDBA managers compare with others in the APBA community.

Minnesota bypassed the boppers to pick pitcher Mike Soroka #1 overall in the LDBA XL Rookie Draft

  • Edited March 15, 2020 1:13 am  by  bruinskip