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Coffee Shop Talk (Read-Only Folder) - The real Percentage

From:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	07/05/2006 02:24
to:	ALL	1 of 20

103790.1

The media calculations is based upon the total number of valid votes to caculate the winning margins, but then is that the complete picture. I have made my calculation and looking at my results, there is and average of about 6% absentees, with the largest number of absentees at Joo Chiat, which is double at 12%.

Then there are the spolit votes, which was also not taken into consideration into the calcualtion of winning percentage by the media. What I am calculating is not the percentage of votes for the opposition but the real percentage of votes against the government.

By not turning up for the polls and by spoiling the vote, the message by these people can be that they are not happy with either party and as such not voting in protest, which could then be a signal of protesting against the ruling party.

If these absentees and spolit votes can be won by the opposition, they could then have a better losing margin, with them merely losing Aljunied by 1.5%. So, could they have won Aljunied this time if they have worked even harder? Could they have persuaded the protest votes and a little more of the votes that went to the winning party, they may have been the winning party themselves.

From my calculations, LHL only won AMK by 60.42% against what the media calcualted at 66%.

Here are my results, source of the numbers are taken off the ST and CNA.

AMK
Total number of eligible voters: 159872 (100%)
Valid votes recieved: 146059 (91.36%)
Spolit Votes: 2979 (1.86%)
Missing: 108434 (6.78%)
Won: 96591 (60.42%)
Lost: 49468 (30.94%)

Aljunied
Total number of eligible voters: 145141 (100%)
Valid votes recieved: 133395 (91.91%)
Spolit Votes: 2381 (1.64%)
Missing: 9365 (6.45%)
Won: 74810 (51.54)
Lost: 58585 (40.36)

EC GRC
Total number of eligible voters: 116653 (100%)
Valid votes recieved: 104757 (89.80%)
Spolit Votes: 2223 (1.91%)
Missing: 9673 (8.29%)
Won: 66890 (57.34%)
Lost: 37867 (32.46%)

Joo Chiat SMC
Total number of eligible voters: 21858 (100%)
Valid votes recieved: 18799 (86.00%)
Spolit Votes: 390 (1.78%)
Missing: 2669 (12.21%)
Won: 12222 (55.92%)
Lost: 6577 (30.09%)

CCK SMC
Total number of eligible voters: 24975 (100%)
Valid votes recieved: 23441 (93.86%)
Spolit Votes: 501 (2.01%)
Missing: 1033 (4.14%)
Won: 14151 (56.66%)
Lost: 9290 (37.20%)

My humble opinion.

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From:	HotRod1688	07/05/2006 02:30
to:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	2 of 20

103790.2 in reply to 103790.1

Very revealing data indeed ! When I see Aljunied's real %age, I feel even more 'pek chek'

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From:	applei	07/05/2006 02:32
to:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	3 of 20

103790.3 in reply to 103790.1

yes the poll statistics is lop-sided.

comparing to how much population gets to poll, walkovers without the chance to polling, etc...

there'll be even more "astonishing" numbers to tell much more about the dot...

missing votes (MIAs)... cant be bothered to even give their mandate...

is dr cheung still working as chief statistician?

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From:	wert7	07/05/2006 02:35
to:	HotRod1688	4 of 20

103790.4 in reply to 103790.2

I don't think this is a fair reflection. One vote loset to is not equal to one vote gained by APs. Actually,it's one of the thing that APs had yet to effectivly worked out : how to persuade those disatisfied with PAP to vote for them. There is a significant number which isn't happy at all with PAP but had no interest in voting for APs either.

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From:	ahpuiahsan	07/05/2006 02:37
to:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	5 of 20

103790.5 in reply to 103790.1

dont forget to add in the oversea voters whose votes are to be counted on 10 May (as quoted by CNA)

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From:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	07/05/2006 02:38
to:	wert7	6 of 20

103790.6 in reply to 103790.4

That is exactly what I am saying, I vote lost does not mean a vote gain to the Opposition.

But that one vote lost is one vote lost to the winning party.

Therefore, their winning margin is not as reflected by the media. It is actually less then what is reported. 66.6% winning margin, if taking in the complete picture, I would hazard a guess of 60%.

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From:	abit2	07/05/2006 02:42
to:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	7 of 20

103790.7 in reply to 103790.6

Is it coincidental that most GRC has 10% less voters than the eligible voters?

Thsi is really strange. Where did 10,000 over voters disappear to?

5 GRCs= 50,000 voters missing in action.. Where did they go?

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From:	HotRod1688	07/05/2006 02:43
to:	wert7	8 of 20

103790.8 in reply to 103790.4

hmmm true. Still if take out the 'Missing votes', only 55.1% supported the PAP. Thats only 11 people out of 20.

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From:	matthew8888	07/05/2006 02:43
to:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	9 of 20

103790.9 in reply to 103790.1

The other thing is, if you exclude Bukit Panjang SMC and Sembawang GRC contested by SDP, then the PAP's winning margin is 63.8%, below the 66.6%.

The SDP was destroyed by the PAP and the PAP Media, so their low percentage dragged down the overall opposition margin.

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From:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	07/05/2006 02:47
to:	abit2	10 of 20

103790.10 in reply to 103790.7

I really don't know where the absentees were during this important national event.

I personally has postponed all business trips during this period of election, from nomination to polling day, so that I could participate in this and do what I am entitled to as a Singapore citizen. I always feel that voting is an entitlement and not a privilege. We have thr giht to choose who we want to represent us in Parliament.

Well, travelling next week and back to the humdrum of things next week.

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From:	abit2	07/05/2006 02:55
to:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	11 of 20

103790.11 in reply to 103790.10

I think this point needs to be highlighted. 10% missing voters in each GRC.. that is strange.

Most people will stay or postpone any trips just to vote.

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From:	i_am_belle	07/05/2006 02:55
to:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	12 of 20

103790.12 in reply to 103790.10

I really don't know where the absentees were during this important national event.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

... probably eating char kway teow ...

i was born here, educated here & lived here all my life, so i know what heartland singaporeans are like - i bet some of them don't even know its polling day ...

if they fail to vote, their name will be deleted from the register of electors, & they'll have to write in to have their names reinstated ...

these ppl can't even compose a simple memo to save their lives, u think they will write letter to elections dept ?

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From:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	07/05/2006 02:57
to:	ahpuiahsan	13 of 20

103790.13 in reply to 103790.5

The numbers in the overseas voters category is insignificant. 500+ against 1.3 million....

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From:	PeasantJUDGE	07/05/2006 03:07
to:	abit2	14 of 20

103790.14 in reply to 103790.11

Did whole precincts of oppo-majority voters fail to turn up to vote?

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From:	Pignose Wagon (LordAlfa)	07/05/2006 03:41
to:	ALL	15 of 20

103790.15 in reply to 103790.14

"The biggest liar is statistics" - LKY.

Can't remember when he said it on TV but I remembered it well in the 80s.

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From:	VPKBomman	07/05/2006 04:19
to:	ahpuiahsan	16 of 20

103790.16 in reply to 103790.5

The overseas votes number less than 570 out of a plausible 100,000.

I know of many people overseas who were not informed or ill-informed about the voting process. The 570 who voted were mostly goverment employees and their dependents who work in offshoots like the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Economic Development Board, etc.

These voters will not a make a difference. They have only a weeks' window to register themselves to vote from overseas which in itself is ludicrious. But kudos to the incumbents for making it look as if that there were 100,000 who voted.

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From:	More Indians shd be eaten by Animals (B4Midnite)	07/05/2006 10:12
to:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	17 of 20

103790.17 in reply to 103790.1

Is it possible to put your results up on barchart or X-Y chart ahead of the 140th?

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From:	JJ_Batchelor	07/05/2006 10:19
to:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	18 of 20

103790.18 in reply to 103790.1

i WOULd have to agree with you. I like to thanks u for the effort.

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From:	SUREBET500	07/05/2006 10:34
to:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	19 of 20

103790.19 in reply to 103790.1

>>So, could they have won Aljunied this time if they have worked even harder? Could they have persuaded the protest votes and a little more of the votes that went to the winning party, they may have been the winning party themselves.

Given that the mass media did not give any meaningful coverage for the OPP, I think if u poll > 40%, u can safely say that u have actually won if there was a fair fight. So Aljunid shld be considered a WP win. Geroge Yeo shld go kill himself for not able to win Aljunid if the mass media did not help him.

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From:	2ndclasspple	07/05/2006 11:50
to:	Lau_Hee_Low (WilliamSo)	20 of 20

103790.20 in reply to 103790.1

since only half the wards are contested and scum pappies get 66.6%...that means only 33.3% ( 66.6x50) of the electorate supports the pappies... hardly a strong mandate... if it is a fully contested and one-to-one fight and not grc, pappies will sure lost 60% of the seats....

PAP go eat shit.

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