As far as I'm concerned this years Classic is going to be a one horse race. Rip Van Winkle is so obviously superior to everything else set to run that it's not even funny.
In any other year the level he has run up to on several ocassions would be worthy of World Champion status. It would give him a favorites chance even in last years race which featured champions such as Curlin, Henrythenavigator, Duke of Marmalade, Casino Drive. And Raven's Pass too. Yet this years field looks vastly inferior.
I could point to several of his races but we will pick out the Eclipse from July, over the Classic distance of 10f:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7Ur9CVtQOAI
Forget what you hear about the Epsom Derby or The Arc or whatever, this was the strongest race run in Europe this season. It was also the best performance of Sea The Stars career as far as I am concerned, as he was actually pushed to repel something for once.
Now, from a time perspective this was brilliant....it was the fastest a horse has run 10f at Sandown in well over a decade....the fastest by over a second...which equates to....5 lengths or so by standard measure I believe?
From a form perspective.....We all know what STS continued to do at the highest level thereafter.......Rip himself went on to win the Sussex Stakes with a monster performance next time out......Conduit, smashed by 5 1/2 lengths here......is a BC winner who would go on to easily win the King George on his next start.....the Premier all age race in Britain..... and further behind you have subsequent Gr1 winners Jukebox Jury and Twice Over, both beaten out of sight.
If you want me to add perspective to this performance, well, drop Henrythenavigator and Raven's Pass into this same race and on form and numbers....you would see them somewhere around a length, perhaps 2 lngths in front of Conduit in third, 2-3 lengths behind STS and comfortably behind RVW.
So, to put it bluntly, if Rip runs to this level at Santa Anita, albeit on a new surface and going left handed instead of right......you are likely to see the SA track record smashed to pieces and also that rarity.....a wide margin victory on an artificial surface.
In fact, I happen to think that on 4 of his 5 starts this season, RVW has run faster than any horse heading for the Classic has done ever in it's life.
Barring accident or injury, he simply cannot lose this.
Yours in sport,
Gladiatorus