I will be taking on Rip Van Winkle in this year’s Breeders Cup Classic, notwithstanding the fact that he is obviously the highest rated and classiest horse in the field.

The reason is obvious. This is a tired horse. A horse on a downward curve.

 

For those of you who don’t know, Aidan O’Brien these days tends to start his horses off in April and May carrying plenty of condition. This means they don’t find it quite so easy to dominate the early classics……Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman both turned up for the in early May woefully underprepared and both failed to hit the board. Of course what they went on to do subsequently is testament to their conditioning….designed to ensure they would peak through the summer months and win big races then. The O’Brien record for 3yos running in October and onwards is not nearly so enticing. It is something like 5 winners in 85 odd starts. Not so great considering he usually has superstars who go off at short odds in big end of season races. Only the other week Fame and Glory demonstrated this phenomenon, running unplaced in the Champion Stakes against a group of horses he would expect to have picked off with ease earlier in the year. I was there and he was gone in his coat. He had had enough after at least 3 big efforts in the middle of his season.

 

The phenomenon extends beyond three years olds as well. In recent years he has brought over brilliant horses like Dylan Thomas and Duke of Marmalade who were obviously over the top and gave no sort of account on the big day. American racing fans will wonder what on earth all the fuss about Dylan Thomas is having seen him firstly be tailed off at Belmont late on as a 3yo and then run woefully in the BC Turf the following year.

The owners Coolmore have done this with other top horses operating for other trainers as well…..Montjeu and Hurricane Run, two brilliant horses, were both sent over when past their peak. They both flopped against fields they would have destroyed when in their primes. Kalanisi beat Montjeu. Red Rocks beat Hurricane Run. Can you believe it?

 

Rip Van Winkle has been bothered by foot problems all season. In his last run, the Queen Elizabeth Stakes over a mile, often viewed as the miling championship race of , he appeared to doggedly hold off the challenge of Zacinto, a fine horse who will take a lot of money in the Mile race on BC day. The sectionals however reveal something different altogether. Rip may have outstayed Zacinto but he was tiring badly late on. The early gallop was simply not fast enough to justify this happening.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sYobs6q5ho&feature=related

This is a tired horse. Henrythenavigator was a tiring horse at the back end of last season having sparkled much earlier in the year. He nearly pulled it off on class alone. Sadly, he ran into another horse in Raven’s Pass who was positively thriving, who was only beginning to come into his coat late that year.

So perhaps Rip has one more big run in him. Perhaps he can even run below form and still win the Classic. But I will bet something that comes into the race inferior to him but thriving, will nail him.

 

Barring a lot of luck, he simply cannot win this

 

Yours in sport,

 

Gladiatorus

Speaking of the recently run Champion Stakes, what do you make of Cecil's horse who has since been added to the list of horses for the BC Classic.

I watched him bear out in the the stretch, then separate in the final yards.  From what I read, the trainer was encouraged overall - hence the decision to ship.

Any insight into this one's readiness you would care to divulge?

 

I liked Rip Van Winkle here since before Sea The Stars chickened out.

.......Or should I post this on the "other" Rip van Winkle post you made.

I figure it is better to disagree with you than to agree, since I mentioned him first. LOL. Nice job.

JOE

Your statements at the end made this one of the lamest postings of all times.  You come out with an explosion that he CANNOT win, and then fire shot after shot of reasons why....and then in the end you say  "So perhaps Rip has one more big run in him. Perhaps he can even run below form and still win the Classic."  Way to hedge your entire bold posting and deflating the whole thing.  Are you arguing with your self?  I do believe Rip is the horse to beat, and I will try with Quality Road and Summer Bird.

Is Mastery coming to the breeders' cup? Whereever he runs I think he will be dangerous.