Had to laugh reading this article.  Is this report on the morning works for Breeders Cup horses or was the writer on drugs on a weekday morning at Suffolk Downs?

Where's the dapples?  Don't any of these horses have glistening coats and dapples?  Where is Steve Haskins when you need to get pumped up?

http://drf.com/news/article/108712.html

Can't believe it but Haskin is actually writing sans "dapples"!

From reading this he's going to be all over Rip Van Winkle as he's pretty much saying that he could have beaten Sea The Stars

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/53246/rip-could-have-eclipsed-stars

Rip Van Winkle might have beaten Sea The Stars in the Coral Eclipse had he not either shied or more likely been hit by Kinane's whip.  It gave the illusion that Sea The Stars had somehow "accelerated" away from Rip Van Winkle and turned back the challenge.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7Ur9CVtQOA

You can see shy away at the 3:45 mark in the video.

Don't sell this horse short, he's deserving of respect and unlike Zenyatta, he is a play at 3-1 in this race.

I was there that day depalma13 and my money was on Rip but on relection I have to say they could have run that race 5 more times and Rip still wouldn't have got past Sea The Stars.

I should firstly clear up, Haskin is wrong because it was Jimmy Fortune who rode Rip in the Eclipse (Murtagh was suspended). Fortune along with Fallon would be the strongest jockey in a drive finish here. When he put the horse into a drive to get past, the horse did appear to duck in towards STS, as a horse who is shirking the issue would tend to (remember Antonius Pius - the biggest shirker of them all - in the BC Mile a few years back?).

At this point the racing press here had a field day with RVW. They were happy to acknowledge STS as a great horse but the whole hype that had grown around Rip was seriously called into question. He had been designated as the special one from his 2yo days even though the best he had achieved was 7th in the end of season championship race and they had multiple Gr1 winners in the same yard. He had flattered to deceive in both the Guineas and Derby. seemingly with excuses both times (not fully fit and then produced too late). And now it appeared that the great white hope of Coolmore's simply didn't have it in him to go through with his effort when victory was there for the taking.

What followed put things into sharper perspective. Next time in the Sussex stakes Rip produced an awesome front-running end to end gallop to break the hearts of the opposition. He was so up for it he was actually racing his own rabbit from an early stage. He ran all the way to the line really hard like a very willing horse.

And next time again he looked in desperate trouble as Zacinto came up to him full of running but again he put everything on the line to grimly run to the line. For a horse who had spent much of his career with excuses being made for losing time and again it suddenly became apparent that he was a very hardy sort with a great attitude and will to win.
Elsewhere, Sea The Stars contnued to sweep all before him while continually looking like a horse who would never win by far, idling badly in front and never doing more than was necessary.

So I would strongly conclude that in that Eclipse what you were seeing was Rip Van Winkle basically running as fast as he possibly could physically - when a horse is doing that he is liable to deviate from a true line - and it not being enough as STS found more when it was required. The clock backed up this. The time put up was remarkable for a 10f race at Sandown. The formlines backed this up too...Conduit miles behind.....Twice Over and Jukebox Jury smashed out of sight. I for one am highly convinced that this was the finest performance of STS's career. People can bang on about his Arc or his Irish Champion performances but this was the only time in his career that he was seriously pushed by another horse and it is to his immense credit that he was able to pick up again to repel Rip.

Anyway sorry if I've rambled a bit here or repeated old points but in essence I would strongly argue that STS accelerating away was not an illusion at all. I'd strongly suggest that RVW was at absolute full pelt at the end there, and it was still not good enough! I don't feel that a smack across the face altered things either, not knowing the attitude of Rips as we do now.

If Rip runs 10f in a similar manner he is simply not going to be beaten here because there is no other horse in the Classic capable of going remotely that fast on the clock. Whether he can do this....on a different surface, going the other way round, drawn wide and at the end of the season with more foot problems...is effectively what we are all handicapping here imho. And I think you are perfectly right in saying that at 3/1 (or bigger, as seems eminently possible) he is a play. He has been between 6/4 and 2/1 here the past month, which I feel much more accurately reflects his chance.

Yours in sport,

Gladiatorus

Incidentally, broad comparisons of the time STS put up for in that Eclipse (with Rip just behind) suggest the comparable Beyer would be of the order 125.
I appreciate that it is very hard to apply Beyers to European races and quite highly subjective but that is what the speed guys here reckon, and even allowing for reasonable margin or error, it says what it needs to say.

Yours in sport,

Gladiatorus (who will be running a 130 Beyer in the mile!!)