When commenting on the result of last years Classic, and the performance of European horses on Pro-Ride in general, I have read a lot of comment on here attributing their success to stamina laden breeding and the notion that the likes of Curlin were outstayed on the surface.
In fact there is an alternative notion on the surface on this side of the pond. Namely, the idea that Pro-Ride - and synthetics in general - actually help speedy horses stay a longer distance than they normally would on their preferred surface.
This logic would go some way to explaining how Henrythenavigator and Raven's Pass - two horses who spent last summer filling out exactas in championship mile races here - were able to finish their races over 10f so well last year.
Applying this logic to this years BC becomes quite interesting because you need to handicap the 10f classic as if it were a mile or mile and one eight race, the marathon as more like a 12f contest and so on.
Using this logic it would not be hard to view Summer Bird as this years version of Curlin. A big, muscular and gross dirt horse who is one-paced and makes one big move over a distance of ground rather than a sprint to the line at the end of his races. On these grounds I can't see him being competitive in this race, even if he does handle the Pro-Ride surface (in itself an unknown). They ran the final furlong last year in under 11 seconds in the sprint to the line and are likely to do so again this year, and that is where the race will be won and lost I'd say.
Alternatively, things begin to look up for fans of Quality Road. This is a horse who has stamina questions to answer as far as going a mile and a quarter is concerned. However, handicap this as an 8-9f contest and his chances would tend to increase I'd say.
In fact an analysis of his sectionals for his Fl Derby win makes for interesting reading, as he finished out in just under 12.5 seconds having run the previous quarter in 24.6. This is an unusual spread for a dirt horse and would suggest he may be well suited by demands of running on synthetics. This view was backed up at Saratoga in the Amsterdam where his split for the final 500m (29 seconds) was very fast.
Elsewhere, and on the Keeneland polytrack we recently saw Proviso run very well in her US debut over 9f in the Juddmonte Spinster stakes. As she has got older this filly has looked more and more like a horse with a preference for 7-8f and a dangerous late kick, so it is quite telling that she was able to go so well over 9f on the surface. She rates a serious danger in the ladies Classic to my mind.
If one were applying this logic about the surface suiting horses stretching out in distance, it would also be possible to conclude that in the Marathon a horse like Father Time could easily reverse previous form (2 defeats) with a galloper like Mastery who prefers a good amount of distance to run over.
Likewise Rip Van Winkle as Europeans champion miler becomes more dangerous in the Classic, fans of Zenyatta who worry about her stretching to 10f can breath easier, and horses like Radiohead and Alfred Nobel become rather interesting at massive prices for the Juvenile.
In short, when handicapping Pro-Ride knock between a furlong and a furlong and a half off the distance and see where it gets you.
Yours in sport,
Gladiatorus