It is quite obvious now that front running horses have absolutely no shot going two turns on this surface. These races are nothing more than quarter horse races with an around the track warmup.  

Workouts over the the track in the morning will not give you any insight into how the horse may run in the afternoon.    The track is completely different at the end of the day than from the start.  Horses that work six furlong bullets in the morning are gasping for air at the same point going slightly faster in the afternoon 

Dirt  form has no chance on this surface.   None.  Nadda.  If you are using a dirt horse in any of the races today, just toss them.   They can't win.   Horses that are trained to win a dirt race had better be super horses to just hit the board.  The surface is simply antidirt, it's not fake dirt, it's antidirt and as much as I hate to say it, keeping Rachel Alexandra off it is the correct decision.  Of course I wanted to see her run, but based on the way the track plays and her style, she would have had to overcome an awful lot to hit the board, let alone win it.

Winning on this surface comes down to finding a horse that is going to make its move coming out of the far turn. In yesterday's Distaff, there were two horses that made that kind of move.  They finsihed first and second.  In the Juvenile fillies there were a few horses who made that move, Blind Luck, Zilva, Negligee Beautician and Biofuel.  Negligee took out Biofuel (who was most likely winning had it not happened) ending both of their chances and Zilva who had a terrible ride.  Blind Luck and Beautician both hit the board.

In today's Classic, we have four horses that fit that criteria.  Awesome Gem, Richard's Kid, Mine That Bird and Zenyatta.  They are not the best horses in the race, but this surface, all four are better than Summer Bird.

Also, turf form doesn't readily transfer to this stuff on first asking.   We may have been duped into believing it because of last year's Classic results. 

Nice analysis. I tossed D'Funnybone Saturday because of my observation from Friday. Yes, I will have Awesome Gem in my exotics due to same thinking. I have Summerbird as my fifth pick right now. He on edge of being tossed. Einstein and Twice Over looking better and better for me. Just watch how Careless Jewel struggled down the back stretch Friday. Shame I could get to her with Music Note. That surface must be like running in gum late in the afternoon.

I couldn't agree more.  That was just brutal watching Careless Jewel.  Granted, she might easily have been caught on dirt, but last?  No dirt horses for me.

Anti-dirt.  I like that.  Whereas, the fellows across the pond refer to it as an antidote.  Go figure.

There is turf.  There is dirt.  There is all-weather. 

Whatever European involvement they garnered by racing on synth. for 2 years running was at the expense of dirt.  Next year, European involvement will be nullified as they go back to dirt.

Neither fish nor fowl.

They have an indentity crisis on their hands because the underlying premise - that synthetics replace dirt is false.  They perpetrate that illusion by calling today's mile event the DIRT MILE when it & all the other dirt races are on All-Weather.

I consider it a mess & very unappealing even though I lucked into an exacta and pick 3 yesterday & ended in the black.  So, I'm not whining from financial loss, simply offering a critique of the BC.

Good luck today, depalma.   Make sure you don't bet the best horses in the synth races!  lol.

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