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Chain stores leaving NY in record numbers   The Consumer You: Marketplace

Started Aug-11 by Showtalk; 574 views.
Showtalk
Staff

From: Showtalk

Aug-11

In reply toRe: msg 1
Showtalk
Staff

From: Showtalk

Aug-11

Looks like coronavirus combined with pre-existing situations in New York finally pushed that whole house of cards past the tipping point.

Economically, now it's all succumbing to gravity now that there is no longer enough structural integrity left to keep it all standing. Just like how the Twin Towers collapsed once the beams, supporting the load of their broken neighbors, finally buckled under the load. Then it started down, pancaking one floor onto the next, gaining destructive momentum with each progressively heavier combined floors slammed into the previously intact ones below, each one now accelerating until the whole 1,300 foot tower was reduced to a 7 story high pile of rubble.

I wonder how many buildings will stand abandoned, and how long before nature finally starts reclaiming territory that the loss of the tax base and the most productive people in mass exodus leaves insufficient resources for even basic maintenance.

While I suspect New York may not collapse to the level that Pripyat did after the entire population evacuated to escape Chernobyl, it likely will not recover for decades if at all.

A good analogy I see to what is happening is much like how a switching DC-DC converter or regulator circuit discharges a large high voltage side capacitor when the power is removed.

Essentially a switcher, if the high voltage decreases, will draw progressively more and more current to compensate and keep the output voltage (low voltage side) constant. If either the demand by the load goes up OR the supply voltage goes down, the switcher will increase its demand on the high voltage to whatever it takes to maintain the voltage and current on the low voltage side.

If the high voltage is shut off, then the filter capacitors don't follow the natural base-e logarithmic decay whose equation we had to memorize way back in introductory circuit analysis class. The voltage vs time curve and current vs time curve look almost inverted from a true linear resistive load across the decaying capacitor voltage.

So the current, or demand, on the high voltage side, goes up exponentially as the voltage decays, which, because the capacitors have a finite (and well known for the value and initial voltage) amount of stored energy available, now drops at an exponential rather than logarithmic rate over time.

So the lower it drops, the faster the remaining energy is used by the load which so far is blissfully "unaware" that the primary power source has quit.

The switching regulator hides the awful truth that the power is dying, from the load, and maintains the illusion that everything is OK (as seen by the load) right up until the filter capacitors discharge below the output voltage.

The load could be seen like the all of the tax dollar recipients, who get everything they had coming, unaware that the source is breaking down, and their constant demand actually accelerates the collapse at the supply side up until the moment that it abruptly quits.

At that point either the load voltage suddenly follows the remnants of the dying high voltage side directly, when the switcher goes to 100% duty cycle and essentially shorts the high and low voltage sides together in a final desperate attempt to keep the load going. Or, if the switcher is a buck / boost configuration, it now actually draws more current from the input than it is delivering, now at a higher voltage, to the output.

This only prolongs the inevitable by maybe milliseconds.

Another analogy could be how a super-massive star's dying moments play out. The hydrogen burning phase lasts a very long time. When it runs out of hydrogen and starts fusing helium to carbon, the reaction is far less efficient. Carbon to neon is even less efficient, and so on until you get to the final silicon to iron reaction.

While the hydrogen phase might have lasted a couple million years (stars big enough to run the entire sequence live fast and die young - it takes billions of years for a star as tiny as our sun to exhaust its hydrogen), helium might last 100k years.

The silicon to iron fusion takes less than 6 hours for a massive star. Then iron fusing to anything else is an endothermic rather than an exothermic reaction.

The iron-choked stellar core no longer can generate enough thermonuclear output to overcome the crush of gravity and stupendous pressures. It suddenly collapses, overcoming electron degeneracy pressure in an instant, and astrophysicists now believe it also overcomes neutron degeneracy pressure as well, and falls in on itself at the speed of light, reaching a density that it forms a black hole deep in the center of the dying star.

The outer layers still have layers of neon, carbon, helium, etc. and hydrogen closer to the surface. These now collapse inwards towards the newborn black hole at the center, and angular momentum keeps it all from just going down the cosmic drain. Instead it forms an incredibly dense accretion disk and a stupendously powerful jet radiating out from the poles.

This causes all of the remaining un-reacted material to be compressed well beyond what is necessary for nuclear fusion to accelerate, and gravitationally confine it for several seconds, causing it to all go off at once. In the next few minutes as it takes the gamma radiation and particles that long to propagate through even at the speed of light, the remnants of the star undergoes more fusion than it did in the previous million years. The polar jets rip open an initial escape route for the super-heated fusion products.

And it explodes. It explodes with so much luminosity it outshines the entire galaxy for several days. The incredible density of material and unprecedented neutron bombardment drives numerous endothermic nuclear reactions, synthesizing such heavy elements as gold, platinum, uranium, lead, mercury, and everything else further down the periodic table than iron. And it expels these nuclei into interstellar space in a huge blast of gas that as the supernova debris cools, eventually coalesces into dust.

Thus every element that denser than helium was forged in distant stars that exploded long long ago. As Carl Sagan said famously, we are all made of star stuff.

Maybe the death of New York will eventually produce something new. But the laws of thermodynamics indicate that New York itself is probably finished, just like that dying star headed for a final destructive blast, spewing new heavy elements into the cosmos with its dying blast.

That article seems to be from October 2nd which makes it pre-pandemic, just not sure which year it's from.

Coronavirus likely just accelerated the trend.

Showtalk
Staff

From: Showtalk

Aug-16

Which article?  The first is from August. Edited, I see the second is old and that’s unexpected. So it’s been happening a while. 

  • Edited August 16, 2020 12:29 pm  by  Showtalk

Yep, it's been years since chain stores were really sustainable with the stupendously high rent, high taxes, etc.

Then of course coronavirus hit like the second hijacked plane into the WTC.

Showtalk
Staff

From: Showtalk

Aug-17

Chain stores often have the income to pay high rents. When they don’t, they close.  Hasn't Sears been going out of business for 20 years?

Showtalk said:

Hasn't Sears been going out of business for 20 years?

They closed the Sears stores in Midland and Odessa a long time ago. Demolished the end of Music City Mall that contained it several years back and made that into parking lot.

But then I don't know anyone who has been shopping at the mall in years and years. Same thing for the Midland Park Mall.

The KMart in Odessa has been closed for at least 30 years, and the one in Midland has been closed for even longer than that. I don't even remember what is in the old storefront any more.

Rush Limbaugh started the show at 11 AM today with a monologue about the implosion of commercial and residential real estate rentals in New York, accelerated by the virus.

He said to the effect that, why would anyone in their right mind pay $5000 a month for a broom closet sized apartment during a work from home order, if they can live in a 5000 square foot home with a lawn and white picket fence in a quite community of 20,000 for the same amount and telecommute.

And why would a company pay 5 million a month for an office suite in a skyscraper that is now mostly empty if they can conduct the same business out of a building in a small town they can own outright for 5 million, and no one has to battle traffic congestion, impossible parking, or virus spreading between cubicles like wildfire.

although I'd have to check the transcript or the over the air capture to be certain of what he actually said.

kizmet1

From: kizmet1

Aug-17

Big family started chain stores have been fading away for at least 40 years. The family sold Meier & Frank to May Co. It cancelled the popular warehouse sales of leftovers, the Friday Surpises and a cafe special on Fridays. May sold out to Macy's. They closed the original 10 story store in the heart of town. It remains empty. 2 more big dept stores were closed. One became a dingy Target. The other a hotel. All that is left of downtown are the high end computer stores, the fancy hotels and the homeless everywhere. It is like a ghost town. Next, the malls.
Showtalk
Staff

From: Showtalk

Aug-17

That makes a lot of sense, so they leave and go somewhere less expensive.

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