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Sturgis Motorcycle Rally linked as SuperSpreader Event   The Healthy You: Health and Fitness Polls

Started Sep-11 by $1,661.87 in cats (ROCKETMAN_S); 485 views.

As I said a few weeks ago when news broke that this event was happening as scheduled, "coming soon - bargains on motorcycles from estate sales around the country". Just thoroughly wipe it down first.


... Using anonymized cellphone data from the rally, researchers from the University of Colorado Denver, Bentley University, University of California San Diego and San Diego State University found the bikers, who were filmed and photographed in crowded bars, restaurants and outdoor venues mostly without face masks, allowed for many of the “worst-case scenarios” for “superspreading.”

The event “was prolonged, included individuals packed closely together, involved a large out-of-town population, and had low compliance with recommended infection countermeasures such as the use of masks,” the researchers wrote.


From: Showtalk


Yes, you did! So it wasn’t the rally but their behavior outside the rally.  The bars will get them every time.

And in the bars, it's precisely because it's an airborne transmitted virus. If it were water / food / drink borne, the alcohol content of the drinks tends to kill all sorts of communicable pathogens. But in a bar, there seems to be much more super-spread capacity than in a typical restaurant, except for the small "cozy" places.

Speaking of bars:


... Home for me, is misery, and here I'm wasting time
Cause a row of fools on a row of stools is not what's on my mind.
But then you see her leaving me. It's not what I perfer.
So, it's either here just drinking beer or at home remembering her. ...

Pop a top, again.
I think I'll have another round.
Set em' up my friend.
Then I'll be gone and you can let some other fool sit down.
Pop a top, again.


From: Showtalk


Yes, drunk, crowded together in a small space. But for people to be infected, someone needs to have it.

Showtalk said:

But for people to be infected, someone needs to have it.

<cough> <hack> and all it takes is one.

Except unlike, say, an outbreak of chlamydia and gonorrhea right after Spring Break and then prom night, where the assorted incels and femcels that weren't invited to the "rest of the party" are essentially immune from it even if they were right in the midst of the super-spreaders.

Covid-19 can be caught from anyone, drunk or sober, clothed or otherwise, if they exhale droplets and you happen to inhale a few of them passing through their cloud. The row of fools on the row of stools can spread it all up and down the line in a few minutes.

And with that large of a gathering, all it probably took was one asymptomatic super-spreader passing it around.


From: Showtalk


They have to be in close proximity for around 30 minutes. Which is why a bar is not a safe place to be.

Although, it's not like 29 minutes, 59 seconds and you aren't gonna get infected, and at 30 minutes, 1 second you get infected. It's an average of a lot of statistics flavored by more anecdotal than rigorous scientific measurements.

The real risk is more like a radioactive decay curve. Essentially, if you have enough people and a way to measure infection probability as a function of time in close proximity, you have maybe an average time of 30 minutes to get infected (the figure I have seen is closer to 15 minutes).

But that also means some people might not get infected if they sat around for 2 hours. Some get infected in close proximity of only 20 seconds. It's kind of like putting one foot in a bucket of ice water and another foot in scalding hot water, and on average, it's a comfortable temperature.

But the closer one is to others, the risk of infection goes up exponentially, because there are more virus laden particles that can travel between people close together than between those far apart.

It's kind of like, if you're spray painting something, the closer others get to you, the more overspray is going to settle on their clothes. It tapers off with distance and it increases accumulation with passing time.


From: Showtalk


They said longer exposure is required because it’s the amount of contagion breathed in as much as that it’s there at all. That is why packaging isn’t a carrier, because the amount on a package would be minuscule.  If I understand it right, there are receptors in the nasal passages and elsewhere that the virus bonds to.  A certain amount is needed to get the virus.

The viral load one picks up is what determines, partially, the speed at which the infection progresses, and to some extent how severe the case is. Even one single viral particle can in theory cause infection, but in practice it takes a few hundred to a few thousand to progress to a full blown case of most viral infections.

It depends on what level of pre-existing sensitivity one's immune system already has, as well.

So if you get a big load suddenly, exposure of milliseconds will make you sick. If the virus quantity is small and accumulates very slowly, you might not get a severe infection, or might become an asymptomatic super-spreader.

But one school seemed to think that making all the kids change desks every 14 minutes, in a malicious compliance with state directives, will magically contain the spread.

Changing seats rapidly just spreads around any actual hot spots. Visualize a very potent dye, like some kind of stuff they used to put in fire alarm handles so if you pull the alarm, you get the stuff on your hand. If you then open doors, touch a faucet, try to wipe a hand on your pants, you leave highly visible fluorescent trail that will lead investigators right up to you, because you leave traces on everything you touch, contaminating everything.

Virus tends to behave in a similar manner except it's sprayed airborne by whoever is infected. So imagine that you exhale spray paint that settles on everything you stand in front of, speak to, or just breathe on.

And the virus, once it gets into a cell, reproduces quite copiously.

Spy dye doesn't reproduce, so eventually the very potent contamination density drops off with each subsequent thing the marked person touches, but it is still potent enough that a few million molecules can be detected.


From: Showtalk


Changing desks doesn’t make sense.