Hammer Dog (jaime59)

4GEA (Golf Equipment Aficionados)

Hosted by Hammer Dog (jaime59)

This is the successor forum to the original Golf Equipment Aficionados forum or 4GEA

  • 170
    MEMBERS
  • 12638
    MESSAGES
  • 0
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Groups Trump Will Improve With In 2020   Futility Folder:Politics

Started Oct-17 by Charlie6D; 921 views.
Charlie6D

From: Charlie6D

Oct-17

All the election prognosticators are making their prognostications now on how the election will turn out in a few weeks.  Their attention is mostly focused on the "swing" states which makes sense.  No need to worry about who is going to win CA or TN because both of those states are locked up by the same party that won them in 2016.  My attention is more closely focused on individual groups within the swing states and how I think each group might change this time versus how they voted in 2016.

Here is how I see some of the group voting pattern changes versus 2016:

Blacks-  Trump is definitely going to carry a larger percentage of the Black vote this time.  Record jobs numbers and prosperity prior to the WuFlu will help Trump a lot among this group.

Hispanics-  Again, Trump will gain among Hispanics who are actually much more religious and conservative than some people give them credit for.  Most of them came to this country to WORK, and Trump is all about work and the economy.

Retirees-  Probably about the same as last time, or perhaps a slight increase for Trump.  They know that Trump isn't going to push Granny off the cliff in her wheelchair, so no reason to not support him again if you supported him in 2016.  

New (Young) Voters- No doubt that the Dems will get the majority of the votes from the new kids who can vote this year... but what's new?  The Dems ALWAYS get the majority of the new first-time voters.  However, I doubt that the Dems will get a larger number of votes from this group this year because I think that many of them are not sufficiently motivated to vote for an old white guy (Biden) for president. Many won't vote at all.  They'd rather play video games.

Suburban Housewives- Ah, so this is the group that the Dems are counting on for their margin of victory.  Presumably this group is totally pissed off at Trump for being a sexist and a crude ogre who is going to overturn Roe v Wade and do all kinds of horrible things against women.  Really?  That's the same thing the pundits said last time when Hillary was running, and it didn't happen even though Trump won and the R's had control of both the House and the Senate for his first 2 years.  In addition, these women like money and nice things and this means they need a strong economy to continue to have their nice things.  Sooo, they will hold their nose and vote for Trump again.  Yes, they hate Trump and would love to see him die a horrible death, but they love their lifestyle more and Sleepy Joe just doesn't inspire confidence in them.  So, bottom line, Trump does at least as well with these ladies as he did in 2016... maybe even a skosh better.

Blue Collar Workers-  We don't even need to discuss this one.  Trump by a landslide!

So, all you Libtards, get ready for 4 more years of Mr Amazing!  :)

Charlie----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Those women will vote with their emotions. Trump remains way under water with women. They basically want to divorce Trump, much like men wanted to divorce Hillary in 2016. Biden comes across to them as a comfortable pair of shoes that won’t create constant drama. I call this Trump Drama Fatigue, TDF for short. I hope I’m wrong, but TDF could be the deciding factor to give Biden the victory.
MikeJA

From: MikeJA

Oct-17

I keep reading that Trump is losing the senior Florida vote, primarily because of the way he handled the virus crisis.  A majority of those in the Villages are allegedly pissed of at him.

But I never hear what it is that he should have done differently.  So I don't know if this is all liberal media bullsh*t, or he actually has lost some senior support.

  • Edited October 17, 2020 6:56 pm  by  MikeJA
In reply toRe: msg 3
Desantis did a good job with managing senior homes, etc. Seniors in NY and NJ are the ones that should be pissed off. If they aren’t dead from Covid.
Boomslang (DaveP8)

From: Boomslang (DaveP8)

Oct-17

Biden the sniffer?  LOL  Trump underwater with suburban women sounds like a porn movie possibility.

 

Dave P

That is well thought out Charlie! I pray that you are correct. 

I'm very worried. 

What about the Wellfare-Dependant group? That group will be 100% for Biden

In reply toRe: msg 3
Charlie6D

From: Charlie6D

Oct-17

MikeJA said...

 

I keep reading that Trump is losing the senior Florida vote, primarily because of the way he handled the virus crisis.  A majority of those in the Villages are allegedly pissed of at him.

But I never hear what it is that he should have done differently.  So I don't know if this is all liberal media bullsh*t, or he actually has lost some senior support.

 

Nah, he hasn't lost The Villages or any substantial number of Florida seniors.  Shit, from the rednecks in the north to the Hispanics in the South, Trump is WAAAAY more popular here than Biden.  They have boat parades here with thousands of boats for Trump.  Likewise, they have golf cart parades for Trump with many thousands of golf carts cheering wildly for Trump.  The only way Biden comes even close to winning here is if the Dems can steal the election.

Charlie-------------------------------------------------------------------

Charlie6D

From: Charlie6D

Oct-17

One Shot Wonder (TShot1) said...

 

That is well thought out Charlie! I pray that you are correct. 

I'm very worried. 

What about the Wellfare-Dependant group? That group will be 100% for Biden

 

No, not 100% for Biden.  While Biden will likely get the majority of welfare recipients, he won't get them all by a long shot.  It's somewhat surprising to many people to learn that a very large number of welfare recipients actually want to work.  This is evidenced by the very low unemployment number (about 3%) that we had just before the WuFlu was unleashed upon us. 

I think that most of those who lost their jobs are very eager to get back to work.  There's just something uplifting about earning your pay and being a breadwinner for the family as opposed to being a dependent and depending upon the government to feed and clothe you and your kids.  You walk a little taller and stand a little straighter when you earn it instead of bowing and scraping for a handout, and your kids can sense this too. 

Charlie------------------------------------------------------

Trump is about 20 points under water with women. Even if it’s really only 10 points, it’s hard to overcome.
Charlie6D

From: Charlie6D

Oct-17

yotsubishi (ToraMori) said...

Trump is about 20 points under water with women. Even if it’s really only 10 points, it’s hard to overcome.

I'm sure that if ONLY women were allowed to vote for President, then Trump wouldn't win, but fortunately, men get to vote too.

So, rather than trying to figure out actual numbers of votes that Trump might get from each group, I just try to analyze whether Trump is likely to have gained or lost votes with any particular group.  After all, it's pretty much the same people voting this time who voted 4 years ago.  While I understand that many women can't stand him, I don't think that Trump will do worse with women this time than he did last time when he was running against Hillary.

I can tell you this for sure, there are many women who are STRONG supporters of Trump.  My wife is on Facebook with a lot of her female friends who are also "mature" senior women, and there's not a one of them who would piss on Biden if he was on fire.  In fact, from some of the things she tells me, a lot of her friends are very rabid Trump supporters.  It's just that they don't let others know this until they have confirmed that who they are communicating with feels the same way.

This leads me to believe that a lot of women, when asked who they will vote for, will be coy about who they actually support.  They're not likely to tell the truth if asked by some stranger calling them on the phone taking a survey.  Some would tell who they really support, but many would not tell.  That's why I put little faith in most polls.  And some men are reluctant to tell strangers who they will support.  This may be because of job security concerns, or perhaps because of social (peer pressure) concerns in some cases.  Minorities in particular might be reluctant to tell a pollster who they will vote for.  After all, everyone is entitled to a SECRET ballot and just because some yahoo calls you on the phone or stops you on the street and asks who you're going to vote for, you're not obligated to answer.  Nor are you obligated to tell the truth even if you do answer.

You've spent too much time holed up in your apartment with your toilet paper stash to get a real feel for how people are going to vote.  You can't believe the pollsters because the people who provided them their data may well be lying... and I'm sure that many ARE lying. 

 

Charlie-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOP