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Coronavirus Pandemic in France   Futility Folder:Politics

Started Oct-24 by Charlie6D; 189 views.
Charlie6D

From: Charlie6D

Oct-24

While reading the newspaper this morning, I read a short article about the resurgence of Covid cases in France which is one of the hardest hit countries in Europe and in the world.  Here are some of the stats from that article.

To date, France has about 1 MILLION confirmed cases of CV although they admit that the true number is much higher for several reasons such as lack of available tests, non-symptomatic infections, etc.

So far, France has experienced about 34,000 deaths attributed to CV out of a total population of 67 MILLION people.

To date, this means that with 34k deaths out of 67 million population = 34,000/67,000,000 = 0.0005 of the population have died from CV.  If we put that into percentage form, it means that 0.05% of the population has died from CV so far.

In other words, a random person in France has about a 99.95% chance of NOT dying from CV so far.

OK, but the pandemic isn't over yet.  They will undoubtedly have additional deaths.  Let's suppose that in the next year or so that the total number of deaths from CV doubles, which I think is very unlikely due to better treatments and possible vaccines in the near future. 

So even if the number of deaths doubles, that means that they would have 0.001 of the population dying from CV.  In percentage terms, that is 0.1%.  Stated another way, even if the number of deaths in France doubles, a random person would still have a 99.9% chance of NOT dying from CV.  And if a person happened to be a healthy person under the age of say 60 (instead of a random person), their chances of NOT dying from CV would be orders of magnitude greater than 99.9% ........  perhaps as great as 99.995% (estimated) chance of NOT dying from CV.  If you're a "numbers" person, you have to like these odds.

Here is a link to the same story that I found online.  https://www.ocregister.com/2020/10/23/france-hits-1m-coronavirus-cases-as-outbreak-spikes/ 

Charlie----------------------------------------------------

  • Edited October 24, 2020 8:50 am  by  Charlie6D
AFH2020

From: AFH2020

Oct-24

Yup. And another way to look at those numbers is that mortality rate from Covid in France is about 3% which is pretty much on a par with US which is currently around 2.6%. Numbers don't tell the whole story though. Those are just just the deaths where Covid was the primary cause. They're still trying to figure out how to count excess mortality - for example patients who died from heart failure precipitated by Covid where Covid wasn't the primary cause but patient might not have died otherwise. Also doesn't factor in the long term morbidity that has been reported in survivors.

That said, agree the odds are clearly favorable. 

Like Trump said during the debate, you've got to learn to live with it. Especially since the virus has a very low mortality and ICU rate outside of the elderly or otherwise health compromised. This is not like a bad storm that you can wait out until it is over. Unfortunately the US went down the slippery slope of widespread lockdowns which caused more harm than good, both for overall health and the economy. We went from "let's roll" to "let's roll up in a ball" in about 20 years.

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