Politics and Political Issues -  Overview: The 2018 Congressional Vote (393 views) Notify me whenever anyone posts in this discussion.Subscribe
 
From: Glen (GEAATL) DelphiPlus Member Icon Posted by hostDec-27 11:36 AM 
To: All  (1 of 44) 
 137781.1 

While we will likely have separate threads on key races, this thread looks at the overall House and Senate race.

Going into the election, the Senate makeup, counting the two independents as allied with Democrats (Bernie Sanders and Angus King), the Senate will be 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats.

The House is Republicans 239. Democrats 193. Vacancies 3 ( Murphy (R), PA resignation effective on 10/21/2017.  Conyers (D), MI resignation effective 12/05/2017.  Franks (R), AZ resignation effective 12/08/2017 ).  There may be a few more resignations.

 

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From: Glen (GEAATL) DelphiPlus Member Icon Posted by hostDec-27 11:39 AM 
To: Jeri (azpaints)  (2 of 44) 
 137781.2 in reply to 137781.1 

The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood

A new CNN survey released this week showed Democrats leading Republicans by an astounding 56 percent to 38 percent on the generic congressional ballot. That’s an 18 percentage point lead among registered voters — a record-breaking result. No other survey taken in November or December in the year before a midterm has found the majority party in the House down by that much since at least the 1938 cycle ... And while the CNN poll is a bit of an outlier, the Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot aggregate is up to about 12 points, 49.6 percent to 37.4 percent. That average, like the CNN poll, also shows Republicans in worse shape right now than any other majority party at this point in the midterm cycle since at least the 1938 election...Democrats are probably favorites to win the House. Their current advantage is larger than the lead Republicans had at this point in the 1994 cycle, the lead Democrats held at this point in the 2006 cycle or the lead Republicans had at this point in the 2010 cycle. Those were all years when the minority party won control of the House. And a 12 percentage point Democratic advantage in the national House vote come next November would likely be more than enough for the House to flip again.  Democrats need to win the national House vote by 5.5 to 8 points to win the House...There are 58 Republicans in seats with a partisan lean of +12 points Republican or less. This includes representatives like House Speaker Paul Ryan and Dave Brat (who took out Eric Cantor in 2014). There are an astronomical 103 seats that have a partisan lean of +18 Republican or less. This expanded list includes the highest-ranking woman in the House, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and the longest-serving House member, Don Young.

 

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From: Glen (GEAATL) DelphiPlus Member Icon Posted by hostDec-27 11:41 AM 
To: All  (3 of 44) 
 137781.3 in reply to 137781.1 

Buoyed by Alabama win, Democrats eye Tennessee Senate race

ABC News-Dec 25, 2017

Democrats eager to take control of the Senate next year are turning to the state of Tennessee, where a popular Democratic former governor is running for the seat being vacated by the retirement of Republican Sen. Bob Corker.  Neither of Tennessee's two top GOP candidates, Rep. Marsha Blackburn and former Rep. Stephen Fincher, has the kind of personal baggage Republican Roy Moore had in the Alabama race won by a Democrat. But both have wholeheartedly embraced President Donald Trump at what Democrats hope is exactly the wrong time.  "Tennessee is clearly in play," said Paul Maslin, a pollster who worked for the campaign of Doug Jones,

 

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From: Glen (GEAATL) DelphiPlus Member Icon Posted by hostDec-27 11:44 AM 
To: WhiteMare (WhiteMare2) DelphiPlus Member Icon  (4 of 44) 
 137781.4 in reply to 137781.1 

Here's one more reason for Republicans to be very nervous about ...

Business Insider

Thirteen months ago, most political observers would have told you the 2018 Senate map was so unfavorable to Democrats that they would be almost sure to lose seats. Democrats will defend Senate seats in 10 states won by Trump, including five where he won by more than 10 points.  The Democratic incumbents typically described as most endangered are Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Joe Donnelly in Indiana — states Trump won by 19 points. (He won Alabama by 28 points.) Democrats will also have to defend unfavorable terrain in North Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia — but in these states, Democratic incumbents are thought to be more protected because they have built political profiles that closely resonate with their red-state voters...Democrats need to pick up only two seats to gain a Senate majority. And they have two strong opportunities — an election in Nevada, which Clinton carried, and an open-seat race in Arizona, where Republicans are likely to have a nasty primary and may end up with a problematic nominee. If Democrats pick up those two seats and defend all their existing ones — and if they win a special election to retain Sen. Al Franken's seat in Minnesota (if, if, if) — they will end up with 51 Senate seats. That's a lot of things that would have to break the right way. But this is not like flipping a coin seven times and hoping it always comes up heads. Election outcomes in a given year are heavily correlated — if Republicans have a bad night in West Virginia, they're likely to have a bad night in Arizona and Missouri at the same time.  Democrats also have outside chances to pick up Senate seats in Tennessee and Texas, though Republicans are heavy favorites in both races.  And though it's not pleasant to discuss the possibility, there may be a special election for a Senate seat vacated by Arizona's John McCain in 2018. When a state holds two Senate elections at the same time, they almost always go both to the same party. The last time a state rendered a split verdict in a double Senate election was in 1966 in South Carolina

 

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From: Glen (GEAATL) DelphiPlus Member Icon Posted by hostDec-27 11:49 AM 
To: All  (5 of 44) 
 137781.5 in reply to 137781.1 

Republicans warn Trump of 2018 bloodbath

A few weeks before Alabama's special Senate election, President Donald Trump’s handpicked Republican National Committee leader, Ronna Romney McDaniel, delivered a two-page memo to White House chief of staff John Kelly outlining the party’s collapse with female voters. The warning, several people close to the chairwoman said, reflected deepening anxiety that a full-throated Trump endorsement of accused child molester Roy Moore in the special election — which the president was edging closer to at the time — would further damage the party’s standing with women. McDaniel’s memo, which detailed the president's poor approval numbers among women nationally and in several states, would go unheeded, as Trump eventually went all-in for the ultimately unsuccessful Republican candidate. The backstage talks provide a window into how those closest to Trump are bracing for a possible bloodbath in the 2018 midterms, which could obliterate the Republican congressional majorities and paralyze the president’s legislative agenda. The potential for a Democratic wave has grown after Republican losses this fall in Virginia, New Jersey and Alabama, and as the president’s approval ratings have plummeted to the 30s. In recent weeks, some of the president’s advisers have taken it upon themselves to warn him directly about the fast-deteriorating political environment.

 

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From: Glen (GEAATL) DelphiPlus Member Icon Posted by hostDec-29 3:17 AM 
To: All  (6 of 44) 
 137781.6 in reply to 137781.1 

If the GOP thought 2017 was bad, here's why 2018 is shaping up to be so much worse

...A few predictions for the Republican Party in 2018:

The same challenges that plagued the GOP in 2017 will overrun them in 2018.

The civil war within the Republican Party that paved the way for Roy Moore to dominate the latter half of 2017’s news headlines will finally burst into full public view.

The Robert Mueller-led investigation that Trump's lawyers foolishly predicted would close by the end of this year will in fact continue well into the new year.

President Donald Trump will begin 2018 the way we he began 2017, with a triumphant address to a joint session of Congress. He’ll bask in the glow of successfully passing “historic” tax reform. He will then spend the better part of the year attacking members of his own party and the party leadership.

A wave of retirements will sweep through the party as the increasing inevitability of a Democratic midterm wave sinks in.

Those who opt to fight for re-election will be confronted with the uncomfortable choice of staying tied to Trump and the Republican base or creating distance from him and incurring their wrath.

 

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From: Alfi (THIALFI) DelphiPlus Member IconDec-29 3:01 PM 
To: Glen (GEAATL) DelphiPlus Member Icon  (7 of 44) 
 137781.7 in reply to 137781.6 

Election predictions 10 months out are ridiculous, yet they continue from all of punditry, regardless of political persuasion.

It's all about the ratings.

"In order for something to become clean, something else must become dirty." -- Imbesi's Law
There is frequently more to be learned from the unexpected questions of a child than the discourses of men.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/j/john_locke.html
There is frequently more to be learned from the unexpected questions of a child than the discourses of men.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/j/john_locke.html
 

 
From: Glen (GEAATL) DelphiPlus Member Icon Posted by hostDec-30 12:14 AM 
To: Alfi (THIALFI) DelphiPlus Member Icon  (8 of 44) 
 137781.8 in reply to 137781.7 

Predictions and polls 10 months out significantly affect potential candidate's fundraising and even decisions as to whether to run, as evidenced by the record numbers of House retirements this year.

 

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From: Glen (GEAATL) DelphiPlus Member Icon Posted by hostJan-1 3:07 AM 
To: All  (9 of 44) 
 137781.9 in reply to 137781.1 

Trump looks to US midterm elections in year - end tweets

(AFP) US President Donald Trump has tweeted right to the end of the year, boasting of his accomplishments in his turbulent first year in office and throwing down the gauntlet for the US midterm elections. "Why would smart voters want to put Democrats in Congress in 2018 Election when their policies will totally kill the great wealth created during the months since the Election," he said."People are much better off now not to mention ISIS, VA, Judges, Strong Border, 2nd A, Tax Cuts & more?""2nd A" appears to refer to the constitutional right, under the Second Amendment, to keep and bear arms, though it was unclear what action, if any, Trump has taken in that regard..."If the Dems (Crooked Hillary) got elected, your stocks would be down 50% from values on Election Day. Now they have a great future - and just beginning!"

 

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From: Glen (GEAATL) DelphiPlus Member Icon Posted by hostJan-1 3:16 AM 
To: All  (10 of 44) 
 137781.10 in reply to 137781.1 

Trump confronts 2018's harsh political reality

Axios
Over the past few weeks — especially since Roy Moore's defeat — sources close to Trump say he's finally recognizing a harsh reality: If Republicans lose the House in 2018, it will pose an existential threat to his presidency, with endless investigations, legislative obstruction and a likely move toward impeachment."Oh, he gets it," a source who's recently spoke to Trump told me. Some of Trump's trusted advisers are stressing the crisis-level stakes of the 2018 midterms. Many believe that the White House's political shop, run by Bill Stepien, has proven useless. And they say the Trump-endorsed outside support group, America First, is equally ineffectual. One top administration official described it to me as "not necessarily inept, but certainly inert..." Senior White House adviser Kellyanne Conway said she thinks the GOP can keep the Congress in Republican hands, but that a to-be-determined liability is if more and more House Republicans retire. She noted that most presidents — including Clinton and Obama — face midterm massacres but then win re-elections.

 

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