Asia Times

Of leaks and lies and lunatic ideologues

This story is about the imminent - early to mid-May - Ukraine conflict escalation that we have forecast over the past six months. Let me start with a story that's neither a leak sprung by the...

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... If Milley’s assessment is correct, and given that the Ukrainian position is more tenuous than was generally thought in October and November, then a successful Ukrainian southern offensive seriously threatening Crimea is unlikely. In the south, Russia is well dug in and will have considered a final-battle-of Kursk scenario: Sag in the center, then envelop the Ukrainian forces, which – at 80,000, at most – will quickly need to re-form.

There is a proviso: To give the much-ballyhooed southern offensive a chance, Ukraine and its closest allies, the US and UK, would need to take down the Kerch Bridge to cut off Russian mainland access to Crimea. Were that to involve long-range NATO artillery, a Russian red line might well be crossed.

For several reasons, Ukraine may choose instead to launch a central front offensive from the region north of Bakhmut and east of Kramatorsk in the direction of Lysychansk and Luhansk. Wagner Group head Prigozhin has warned of that and may well have the right instinct about it. Russian forces north of the Donbass salient would be cut off and would either have to flee to the homeland or surrender.

It would not be the recovery of Crimea touted by Zelensky and State’s Victoria Nuland, but it would probably keep Western support for Ukraine alive.

Unless hardnosed military advice to the White House has some effect, we are entering into the most dangerous phase not just of this war, but of any period since November 1983, when a nuclear war almost started because the Russians interpreted NATO’s too-realistic exercise Operation Able Archer as a ruse to disguise a nuclear first strike. The lunatic ideologues at the US Department of State, who demand regime change and the break-up of Russia, will see to that.

So we should end our aid to the Ukraine and watch them die and fall under Putin's spell? Is that the world you'd like to see, pal? Today Ukraine, tomorrow Kazakhstan. See where this is going, chief?

Jesus, pal. Do you have a job or is this crap what you do all day long?

The Russian government and its force is not what most of the Populations' desires. 

Your evil words is not what most of the members here are into the same desolation as you are.

What's so evil about telling the truth?

I have a feeling that this war will last long enough until Putin accidentally dies.

Did I say "end the HELP" or end helping the war to progress ? ?  

Tucker - LOL…

A couple of weeks ago, I was watching video of people fighting on the street in Washington. A group of Trump guys surrounded an Antifa kid and started pounding the living shit out of him. It was three against one, at least. Jumping a guy like that is dishonorable obviously. It’s not how white men fight. Yet suddenly I found myself rooting for the mob against the man, hoping they’d hit him harder, kill him. I really wanted them to hurt the kid. I could taste it. Then somewhere deep in my brain, an alarm went off: this isn’t good for me. I’m becoming something I don’t want to be. The Antifa creep is a human being. Much as I despise what he says and does, much as I’m sure I’d hate him personally if I knew him, I shouldn’t gloat over his suffering. I should be bothered by it. I should remember that somewhere somebody probably loves this kid, and would be crushed if he was killed. If I don’t care about those things, if I reduce people to their politics, how am I better than he is?

OSarge (AKA Finkle) (mahjong54) said:

A couple of weeks ago, I was watching video of people fighting on the street in Washington. A group of Trump guys surrounded an Antifa kid and started pounding the living shit out of him.

A link to this video, please.