Coalition of the Confused

Hosted by Jenifer (Zarknorph)

Confused malcontents swilling Chardonnay while awaiting the Zombie Apocalypse.

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Brazil   America - all of it

Started 8/22/19 by Jenifer (Zarknorph); 6140 views.
Jenifer (Zarknorph)
Host

From: Jenifer (Zarknorph)

8/22/19

Satellite data captured on August 13 shows fires in the Amazon creating a dome of smoke over South America.

In reply toRe: msg 1
Jenifer (Zarknorph)
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From: Jenifer (Zarknorph)

8/22/19

What a dick!


In reply toRe: msg 2
Jenifer (Zarknorph)
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From: Jenifer (Zarknorph)

8/22/19

BerrySteph

From: BerrySteph

8/22/19

Swathes of Brazil, including some of its biggest cities, have been covered in thick smoke as wildfires continue to ravage the world's largest tropical rainforest.

I think 2019 is the date on which the threatened positive feed-backs kick in and the world races to some kind of new equilibrium at least 5degC higher than present and maybe 15degC higher.

5degC rise will see billions of people die - 15degC will see a world population of less than a billion left and the internet may stop.

Whether many British people will starve to death between now and 2050 is questionable but the big cull of the world will be in full flow by then.

Jenifer (Zarknorph)
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From: Jenifer (Zarknorph)

8/24/19

The third world nations will die off first.

The question is, will the first world care?

I doubt it, as it will free up resources and cut back about a billion mouths to feed.

The first world will only care when it starts to directly effect their day to day lives.

In reply toRe: msg 5
Jenifer (Zarknorph)
Host

From: Jenifer (Zarknorph)

8/24/19

In reply toRe: msg 6
Jenifer (Zarknorph)
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From: Jenifer (Zarknorph)

8/24/19

In reply toRe: msg 7
Jenifer (Zarknorph)
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From: Jenifer (Zarknorph)

8/24/19

BerrySteph

From: BerrySteph

8/24/19

Jenifer (Zarknorph) said:

The first world will only care when it starts to directly effect their day to day lives.

Good point.

Except we have a habit of blaming minorities or "the war" for these kind of shortages. We'll just carry on killing more Muslims, over and above the 60 or 600 million we kill with Phase I of Holocaust II.

In reply toRe: msg 9
ElDotardo

From: ElDotardo

8/24/19

Amazon Fire History Since 2003

We are told that Amazon fires are at record levels right now. This is a blatant lie. The only “record” is that Amazonian fires have DECREASED over the “record”.

This is what we are being told.

Fig 1: Screen Shot of Google Search (search term: Amazon Fires at Record)

This (is) what the data actually looks like, to August 22. Yes, its updated daily.

Fig 2: Amazon Fire Totals via MODIS (2019 is highlighted)

This comes from a wonderful site, https://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html#elbeni

It uses NASA MODIS data, from the Terra and Aqua satellites, and is updated daily. By going to the website, you can look at individual regions in the Amazon, or as I have done, look at the totals for the Amazon. This site also has global data, but I am only looking at the Amazon region here.

The Interactive Graphs are very informative. Hovering the cursor over the graph will show the data at that point.

You can highlight individual years, by clicking on a year in the legend at the bottom of the graph. That year remains bright, while the rest are dimmed. Using Eyeball Mark 1 Trend Indicator (EBM1TI), 2019 is slightly high, but not at record levels. Not even close.

One thing I saw by looking at each year, was a rough pattern – one or two bad years, one or two years at much lower levels, then a bad year. This pattern is there until 2010. 2010 was the last “bad year”. Levels since 2010 have been 1/2 or less of the “bad years”. The old pattern has been broken.

Not only does this site calculate number of fires, it also calculates carbon emissions (in Tg) from the fires. Note that the site issues a caveat about estimated later data, hence its grayed out.

This emissions chart from the website shows what I was talking about, in alternating bad/good years. But as I said, only until 2010. It is obvious there is a reducing trend in emissions, again using EBM1TI.

Again, by hovering the cursor over the bar chart, you can look at data points. Clicking on a legend at the bottom will highlight that series.

Is it significant? Dunno. I need to download and trend the data. I can say definitively, that there is no increasing trend, and 2019 is a LOONNGG way from record territory.

 

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