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This is intended for people interested in the subject of military guns and their ammunition, with emphasis on automatic weapons.

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LMAO Germany adopts an AR-15   Small Arms <20mm

Started 14/9/20 by QuintusO; 103488 views.
JPeelen

From: JPeelen

6-Mar

I could not agree more. You have hit the nail on the head.

roguetechie

From: roguetechie

6-Mar

I personally expect to start seeing more Chinese stuff show up in Russian hands at some point in the next couple years, especially in areas where Russia is way behind like night vision and IR.

IF

This happens we will actually see the Russians and Chinese both get more capable in the short to midterm. I don't even dare try to predict anything further than 3 years though

Wessels3

From: Wessels3

7-Mar

That is unless they become isolated to the point of becoming a sort of super north korea / stalinist russia, and just re-orient their society to a mass re-armament campaign, backed by chinese technology. 

The Chinese seem to be quiet/semi-neutral up to now, at least on the face of it. China is hugely trade dependent. I expect they are also surprised by the ferociousness of the West's sanctions. Might they not decide to distance themselves from Russia, to avoid the possibilitiy of also becoming targeted by the sanctions?

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

7-Mar

Wessels3 said:

Might they not decide to distance themselves from Russia, to avoid the possibilitiy of also becoming targeted by the sanctions

Absolutely possible. Frankly the geopolitical ramifications for everyone are incredible in terms of possibilities and 3rd order effects going forward. 

We could see China distance itself from Russia, both the avoid santions and to lower the temperature with the US and EU.

We could also see China turn Russia into a Client State similar to Pakistan and Iran, where China provides arms and investment in exchange for energy and resources. 

We might even see China try to heavily re-arm Russia in order to keep up the pressure on NATO and especially the US, in order to divide the US's attention and prevent the US from completing its pivot to Asia / focus entirely on Containing China. 

Wildcard, we could see a coup in Russia following an economic collapse, with a western friendly regime take power. And the US can do what it should have done in 1991 - extend a genuine olive branch to Russia and implement a Marshal Plan 2.0 / work to integrate Russia into the EU and possibly NATO. AKA permanently defeat an enemy by making them a friend, ala Germany and Japan. Then like a buddy movie, we can all team up to contain china together. 

No one knows whats going to happen. But we're in a time of profound change - history has resumed. 

All I think we can say with confidence is that we're likely to see a big bump in defense spending world wide. 

  • Edited 07 March 2022 8:44  by  gatnerd
Wessels3

From: Wessels3

7-Mar

Thanks for the comprehensive answer. 

Wessels3

From: Wessels3

7-Mar

All I think we can say with confidence is that we're likely to see a big bump in defense spending world wide. 

It seems that Western strategists feel that the two big threats are Russia and China and that the intention is that Russia would be contained by Europe, once Europe has upscaled sufficiently, while the US, aided by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, etc. would (try to) keep China in check. 

Farmplinker

From: Farmplinker

7-Mar

Chinese NV for Russian jet engines?

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

7-Mar

Wessels3 said:

It seems that Western strategists feel that the two big threats are Russia and China and that the intention is that Russia would be contained by Europe, once Europe has upscaled sufficiently, while the US, aided by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, etc. would (try to) keep China in check

Thats the vibe I've been getting as well.

The 'Abraham Accords' in the middle east was part of this goal to free up attention for China. Basically pave the way to create a security/economic allaince/bloc with Israel + Sunni Middle East where they can all work together to contain Iran and police their neighborhood, with the US providing an overall backstop in terms of political, intelligence, and military assistance. 

No doubt the US would love to see NATO (continental nato aka EU) shift into that direction. EU forces provide boots on the ground / primary combat force vis a vis Russia, while the US provides overall coordination and specialized capabilities (Surveillance, Intel, Space based assets, logistics, shared US warstocks of PGM's, Stealth strike aircraft, etc). But in terms of US boots on the ground, just serve as 'bailout' force to intervene should NATO be overwhelmed. 

However thats a ways off, and the US does not currently have a solidified bipartisan Grand Strategy the way it did during the Cold War. 

gatnerd

From: gatnerd

7-Mar

Farmplinker said:

Chinese NV for Russian jet engines

Thats possible. I was thinking a more basic 'fur for muskets' arrangement would be done though if China decides to try and re-arm Russia as a decoy proxyforce.

XYZ quantity of Oil or Nat Gas for XYZ quantity of weapons (Drones, PGM's, etc). 

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