autogun said:

I have read that both Japan and Italy favour wheeled AFVs because they have very long coastlines to defend, and the ability to self-deploy at high speed is valuable.

This is exactly the reason BUT you have missed one very important factor.

The ability to self deploy because of the well developed road network.

Both Japan and Italy do use heavy tracked MBTs as well. The wheeled AFVs are intended as a fist rapid response. They are not the main force or effort.

EmericD said:

During the French intervention in Mali, it was not unusual for the VBCI to cover 500 km in 10-12 hours (convoy escort, patrols), I don't think that a tracked vehicle could do that on its own.

The VBCI certainly is fast but 500 km in 10 hours... that sound very fishy to me. An average speed of 50 km/h? Under combat conditions? In a third world country? An average speed of 50 km/h is allmost impossible to achieve even for civillian vehicles in central Europe unless they are travelling on a motorway/autobahn.
So unless we talk about long range movements on very good roads unopposed I would really like a source.

You are right tough that most tracked vehicles could not have dones this on their own because they do not even carry enough fuel.
But I am very certain that a modern tracked vehicle developed for souting and long range movement that can achieve this is possible.

EmericD said:

he noise difference between rubber tracked vehicles and wheeled vehicles of the same weight class is still impressive, and you still hear a tracked vehicle several hundred of meters before a wheeled vehicle.

The tracks are not really the problem. Unless we are talking about road movement. The rattling sounds of tracks is typical for movement on roads and hard surfaces. On soft ground its not there. This means on most dirt roads you allready do not hear it.
The problem is noises made by the suspension. For example the squaking noise of torson bars and the engine and exaust. But this is really dependent on terrain and speed. There are lots of wheeled vehicles that are conciderably louder than tracked ones.
For example dirt bikes.

P.S.:
Mali is more or less the ideal theatre for wheeled AFVs. As is most of Africa and other low infrastucture regions. One reason is the terrain and lack of infrastructure the other equally (if not more) important reason is the fact that it is very unlikly to run into competent combined arms opposition that uses heavy AFVs. In Mali a VBCI or a Jaguar is king. Its the toughest, meanest AFV around... in UA for example not so much.

graylion said:

all good points. I am just trying to imagine a Jaguar scouting in UA in mud season

This is exactly the problem.
In this case the wheeled vehicles have to stay on some form of fortified road that prevents them from sinking in and getting stuck.

While its still possible to use them they are very limited to where they go. Which makes it easy to predict their movement and use this.

EmericD said:

I really expect that we will never have a "real world" answer to this question.

Not with the Jaguar but the AMX10RC. Just wait two or three month.

Besides the war in UA allready has shown that wheeled vehicles are very limited if the road situation changes.
There is a reason why UA is asking for tracked AFVs and why such make up the vast majosity of the delivered ones.

schnuersi said:

The VBCI certainly is fast but 500 km in 10 hours... that sound very fishy to me. An average speed of 50 km/h? Under combat conditions? In a third world country? An average speed of 50 km/h is allmost impossible to achieve even for civillian vehicles in central Europe unless they are travelling on a motorway/autobahn. So unless we talk about long range movements on very good roads unopposed I would really like a source. You are right tough that most tracked vehicles could not have dones this on their own because they do not even carry enough fuel. But I am very certain that a modern tracked vehicle developed for scouting and long range movement that can achieve this is possible.

It was done by the 1st RIMA, running from Gao to Tessalit in order to support the Special Operation Forces that were air dropped to take the Tessalit airport, and they arrived in proper time.

The road from Gao to Tessalit is not exactly a highway by western standards, and the area around Gao (or Tessalit, and in between) was not very safe.

But I agree that it was a specific action, in a specific context. The war between Ukraine and Russia is much more static now, wheeled vehicles were at their best during the first hours / days of the war, not now.

schnuersi said:

Not with the Jaguar but the AMX10RC. Just wait two or three month.

So, with a Ukrainian crew, not a French one.

Jaguar involvement would mean that France is co-belligerant, that's not really what I want for my children.

I also consider that a, let say, "M1 Abrams with a Saudi Arabian crew", is not really the same tank (and capability) than a M1 Abrams with a US crew.

I don't think that the 10RC is ideal for Ukraine, but at least it's a rugged design with useful artillery.

EmericD said:

So, with a Ukrainian crew, not a French one.

Yup, Probably a bunch of veteran Ukrainian tankers who have been in the war for a year. The comparison to Saudi Abrams doesn't work IMO

graylion said:

Yup, Probably a bunch of veteran Ukrainian tankers who have been in the war for a year. The comparison to Saudi Abrams doesn't work IMO

I mean that you have to carefully know the limitations of one vehicle to use it properly. If you take a "bunch of veteran Ukrainian tankers" that were raised and feeded with T-72s, and give them an AMX 10RC, that's not going to work well for them.

schnuersi said:

This is exactly the problem. In this case the wheeled vehicles have to stay on some form of fortified road that prevents them from sinking in and getting stuck. While its still possible to use them they are very limited to where they go. Which makes it easy to predict their movement and use this.

Yes. the question is whether one would want to design a dedicated tracked scout vehicle

EmericD said:

. If you take a "bunch of veteran Ukrainian tankers" that were raised and feeded with T-72s, and give them an AMX 10RC, that's not going to work well for them.

Well, the Ukrainians have proven time and again that they aren't idiots.