stancrist said:

...quite interesting is the prediction @ 8:10 "So, one of two things is going to happen here.  Either the Russians are going to read the map and engage in the most humiliating withdrawal in Russian history.  Or they're going to stand pat and suffer one of the most humiliating military defeats in Russian history."

Zeihan seems to be changing his tune.  Now he says Russia will never quit trying to conquer Ukraine.

Not only that, he thinks the war is just beginning and at some point Russia will inevitably attack NATO.

YouTube

Peter Zeihan - The Ukraine War Is Just Getting Started

Click this link for the fixed audio version - https://youtu.be/v5x9PMlhvxA Perhaps the scariest takeaway from the Ukraine War is that it's just beginning. To...

stancrist said:

Zeihan seems to be changing his tune.  Now he says Russia will never quit trying to conquer Ukraine. Not only that, he thinks the war is just beginning and at some point Russia will inevitably attack NATO

I think Zeihan is broadly accurate in many of his predictions, but I don't think he's infallible. (see my earlier zeihan china critique)

I do think the war is far from over, and we're likely to see much more fighting. Really I don't see it ending unless Ukraine is able to smash Russias invasion supply chains with ATACMS or similar. 

However I think his notion that Russia is going to be rolling into Poland and Romania under a tac nuke umbrella is absurd.

gatnerd said:

However I think his notion that Russia is going to be rolling into Poland and Romania under a tac nuke umbrella is absurd.

I am mostly finding Zeihan absurd TBH. But I am having a feeling that Russia may refuse to admit defeat, even if they are getting thrown back into the borders of 2014.

graylion said:

I am mostly finding Zeihan absurd TBH

His plausabilty varies widely depending on the subject. 

His discussion 3 days earlier on the limits of solar power for example is perfectly cogent and believable (and sadly overlooked by the news.)

YouTube

Peter Zeihan - The Solar Power Problem(s)

For solar power to make sense, there's one non-negotiable component...and yes, it's that bright, shiny thing in the sky - the sun. But just because your plan...

These are generally the subjects I follow him for. 

I think trying to predict the near future vs general trends is much trickier. And whether ideologically or marketingly, he tends to veer toward the extremes when discussing geopolitics. 

That's what I've seen with zeihan too...

He appears to have some noticeable blind spots, one that seem to line up with the blind spots of western leadership wrt our likely opponents.

gatnerd said:

I think Zeihan is broadly accurate in many of his predictions, but I don't think he's infallible.

Certainly.  I didn't mean to give the impression that I was criticizing him for the apparent change.  I just thought it was interesting.

One theme that has not changed (in the videos I've seen) is the premise that Russians want to gain control of all the access points.

I wonder if that is merely his opinion, or if Russian leaders are actually so paranoid that they're willing to start wars over the issue?

If the Russians truly are that irrational and psychotic, it may be that the only way to stop their aggressive acts is to end their nation.

roguetechie said:

He appears to have some noticeable blind spots, one that seem to line up with the blind spots of western leadership wrt our likely opponents.

What "blind spots" are you referring to?

gatnerd said:

I do think the war is far from over, and we're likely to see much more fighting.

Two weeks ago Zeihan thought the war could end with the expected Russian spring offensive.  (4:50-5:05)

YouTube

The 2nd Holodomor: A Pending Genocide

In the 1930s, the Soviet Union attempted to crush the Ukrainians in a genocide known to history as the Holodomor. And now Russia is gearing up for round 2. F...

Not any more irrational than seizing Puerto Rico, and still keeping it, because the Euros might send a surface group to shoot up the East Coast.

Though if we said Puerto Rico is independent, the Puerto Ricans wouldn't like it, whereas the Romanians don't want to be Russians.

The extreme and most unlikely scenarios, produce the most clicks, though. "China will muddle through, but not be as important to the world economy as it's been the last few decades" doesn't attract a lot of viewers. "China unstoppable" or "China is doomed" does.