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From: Ishmael112Jan-23 10:47 AM 
To: All  (1 of 65) 
 14754.1 

The good news is that over all Covid rates are falling.  

The bad news is that that they are still high and the northeast has very high rates.  New York, for example, is one of the highest in the nation.  But compared to many states the New York vaccination rate is high.  69% of New Yorkers have 2 doses of Covid vaccine; I cannot find data for the booster shot.  It is reasonable to suggest that the rate is even higher in the New York metropolitan area.  Yet New York is the major entry point for people coming to the US and there is not any vaccine for the Omicron variant so the New York statistic is not surprising.  

But if we look at the change in the number of hospitalizations for Covid in New York the news is different.  Over the last week that number is -7.2%.  That's right.  7.2% fewer people were hospitalized than the week before.  And in the northeast in general the number of hospitalizations is not increasing.  

Where the news really gets bad is in the south and west.  In Texas which has a large population the number of hospitalizations is up 12.2%, almost 20% more than New York.  Montana has a small population, about the smallest in the country so in absolute numbers it does not make a big impact.  But the health care system is small too.  In Montana the number of hospitalizations is up 49.1%.

Covid hospitalization hot spots across the U.S., in five charts (nbcnews.com)

 

  • Edited February 2, 2022 6:07 pm  by  Ishmael112
 
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From: YoungGandalf DelphiPlus Member IconJan-23 11:02 AM 
To: Ishmael112  (2 of 65) 
 14754.2 in reply to 14754.1 

You are too optimistic. Worldwide covid is on the rise, and in the US it is not clear whether we are past the peak. Anomalies like holidays delay people getting tested, regional lack of tests prevents diagnosis. The US is the first major, effectively unvaccinated country (when 99% vax is needed a vaccination rate in the 60% range is not much different from no vaccination as far as stopping the spread is concerned. So far, about 20% of Americans have been confirmed as having been infected) that has a reasonable reporting system being hit by this highly infective variant.

It is possible that we are half way through as far as the new infections are concerned, but the data do not conclusively bear that out. Then comes the hospitalization peak, and then the death peak.

As of 1/21 see the attached snapshots.

  • Edited January 23, 2022 11:04 am  by  YoungGandalf
 

 
From: Ishmael112Jan-23 8:30 PM 
To: YoungGandalf DelphiPlus Member Icon  (3 of 65) 
 14754.3 in reply to 14754.2 

I don't see what my personal qualities or anyone's personal qualities have to do with contagious disease.  

The graphs you offer show the total number of omicron cases and how they have skyrocketed.  And even at that the graphs omit many cases which are so mild they are never reported.  

What the graphs do not show is that that most cases of omicron are mild.  However, with so many cases a lot of people wind up in the hospital and death rates are still significant.  This is especially true where large numbers of people remain unvaccinated but I'm sure you are well aware of that.  

 

 

 
From: but you may call me (FLIPPERWALDT) DelphiPlus Member IconJan-24 6:10 AM 
To: Ishmael112  (4 of 65) 
 14754.4 in reply to 14754.3 

You are probably a week or ten days behind us in the UK. Alas we can't start partying yet because there is a new variant on the block, it's BA.2, a new variant of Omicron which is outcompeting the original strain, BA.1. It hasn't reared its head in the UK or the US yet, but in Denmark it's already taking over. Cases are still increasing there. This is a good site to look at for lineages in different countries.

Also although cases peaked in the UK there is already a definite point of inflection i.e. they're not falling as fast as they were. This might be because restrictions have been lifted even further and kids are back at school.

We're seeing quite a few re-infections too, in fact a friend of ours got Delta in October (after two jabs) and has just caught Omicron (well it's probably Omicron, 99% of our cases are).

We've still got at least a month of pandemic left, the question then is "what does endemic look like?". 

  

 

 
From: YoungGandalf DelphiPlus Member IconJan-24 8:47 AM 
To: Ishmael112  (5 of 65) 
 14754.5 in reply to 14754.3 

I am saying that you interpreted the data wrong because your thinking was too optimistic.

 

 
From: Ishmael112Jan-24 11:23 AM 
To: but you may call me (FLIPPERWALDT) DelphiPlus Member Icon  (6 of 65) 
 14754.6 in reply to 14754.4 

It does look like we in the US have reached our peak and over all cases will decline. 

However, catching up with the UK is different.  I think that will take a very long time and may never really happen because of the large number of US people who obstinately refuse vaccination.  

 

 
From: Ishmael112Jan-24 11:29 AM 
To: YoungGandalf DelphiPlus Member Icon  (7 of 65) 
 14754.7 in reply to 14754.5 

I'm not interpreting the data.  I'm presenting the data for people to interpret on their own.  

However, in 9th grade algebra I learned not to simply stop with looking at numbers.  The numbers must refer to specific things.  And if you don't understand what is referred to you can't understand the numbers.  

Omicron stays in the respiratory system.  That makes is a different kind of covid than variants which lodge in the lungs.  That needs to be recognized when interpreting the skyrocketing omicron statistics.  

 

 
From: YoungGandalf DelphiPlus Member IconJan-24 11:46 AM 
To: Ishmael112  (8 of 65) 
 14754.8 in reply to 14754.6 

Fauci said this morning that it is very likely that by the middle of February the peak will be behind us. https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/omicron-surge-direction-states-past-peak-dr-fauci-82425776

He did talk about it in a region by region manner. It is anybody's guess what that means for the country overall. The populous states are all still coming, so I still reckon that your interpretation is too optimistic.

  • Edited January 24, 2022 12:04 pm  by  YoungGandalf
 

 
From: but you may call me (FLIPPERWALDT) DelphiPlus Member IconJan-24 1:41 PM 
To: Ishmael112  (9 of 65) 
 14754.9 in reply to 14754.6 

Well the number of cases in the UK has probably stopped declining overall. What seems to be happening is that it's spreading faster in the under 18s but still declining elsewhere. I am sure that it will go up again but probably resume its decline after a couple of weeks. Let's hope so. 

 

 
From: Ishmael112Jan-24 4:15 PM 
To: YoungGandalf DelphiPlus Member Icon  (10 of 65) 
 14754.10 in reply to 14754.8 

You are welcome to your opinion about me.  But my true opinion is that you need to focus on your own area and your own situation rather than on the northeast or even on the country as a whole.  

Anthony Fauci seems to be trying to address the whole country while being very aware of the differences from region to region.  

 

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