This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
Latest 8:36 PM by smartyslew
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Max should skip the Belmont, 2 weeks away.
No matter who the high weight races against as you know look to see how the 118 pounders do
in there next few races and the quality of the field.In Maxfields last race ;3 or 4 ran some good races
after that and are compeitive.
This time of year in this new structure usually about 20 have carried 126 pounds ,not so this year.
I haven't looked at the Belmonts structure this year, are they assigned 126 pounds?
also the other 2 that ran good today could run competive carrying more weight, its not there fault they were assigned 118 pounds.
I haven't done research this year to come up for this years model.
one opinion i have is it could be very competive and look out for the out of staters ,they are like all 3 years olds, more mature June thru September and the elite should be very good and some late bloomers
will be running in the preakness this year.
Although Belmont Stakes has dropped 3 furlongs and 1/2 million off the scheduled $1.5 mil...seems as a Jewel race the weight carried should go at the prescribed 126.
A quick look at the races left( see official Derby site),for points and some substantial $, owners and crew will need equation of lost total stable income revenues due to pandemic; how much they could potentially win (in exclusive 3 yr old races/ never to be run in again) and then yes add the Sugar Plum Delta...at what cost to get enough Derby points for a gate and be able to humn the song all summer:"See You in September."
The point schedule has a number of 30 pointers where a few can get knocked out.
And as mentioned Monmouth Park runs a July 18th 9 furlongs with scholarship to Breeders Cup. I think there's even money they would offer appearance fee to connections vs having it in August where the likes of an already made man American Pharoah shows up for all due respect.
This is also a good year, due to the Crown flop dates, to not face colts one will face in the Derby.
OK..folks...I think over the years..everybody in the world texts and tweets and a gazillion news sources. Claims of foul fake news..we should be past the red board notices.
So today was the 2nd time I bet this year and called the key Delta in Dubai biggie.
The elongated horizontal pics going into Wynn include dead nuts Rock Hard Ten 3 favorites. And card was pretty generous..
As usual..wish I could make a side bet..when going into the last leg of a horizontals and then my horse Wins. But, as sure as manure on the back stretch...bada boom. Claim of foul, jockey objection, Stew Inquiry, lady on bus trip says the teller gave her an incorrect ticket, gate video shows winner pushed the gate open with his nose before the bell and won by a nose.
LMAO now. But in the Winn stretch, as I had already watched my make my day colt Winfield run every play in the book to get into striking position and then go by. I take a hugh draft on my maduro and say What the hell did I just see. Jose Ortiz just waved his left hand with white glove in the face of the colt he's running down. Sure glad Kent D didn't do that. He would have told the stews on the inquiry phone, "I was just waving by-by"
Reminds Dogs of a Parx race where jockey loses whip and an adjacent jockey let's the other jockey borrow his whip. Now that's ticket construction.
Good eye, he did do that.I couldn't tell if there was contac.
If there was the slightest touch perhaps a new call line would be jockey savage.
Can't do that. Only in cases of real or eminent safety.
Such as a jockey falling from runner out of gate and touches both horses to his side but doesn't or does finish race. No foul call. Happened at Spa.
One other smaller horse i really liked was War Pass who missed the '08 derby.
Never did find out War Pass's demise.
smartyslew said...That doesn't count. you had to have the Super with the 11 in it, cmon
Yeah, I was somewhat disappointed I didn't go deeper and add my longshots into a superfecta.
It still wouldn't have paid that great.
I have also learned to stay loyal to horses and trainers even if it looks bad for a while. If you believe in them, then you wait it out. I didn't used to do that. I made good money off 2 horses in last 2 months which gave me bankroll for summer: Dunph (it was only a matter of time for him and I kept at it with him, he was actually on one of my Derby lists for a while) and Hashtag Winner (Williamson is one of my longshot trainers at OP). As a matter of fact if you played back just OP trainers/jocks/horses on Friday at CD, you would have had like 5 exactas and several winners and they paid well. Look it up at Brisnet, race by race. Very lucrative day.
Sat didn't offer that opportunity so I was unable to take advantage of that angle.
I really like playing the non stakes type races.......the odds are better. Big stakes races are exciting and meaningful to watch, if you want to make $$ play the maiden races and the not-so-famous races where there's a false favorite or 2 and you can do very well.
DogsUp said...Although Belmont Stakes has dropped 3 furlongs and 1/2 million off the scheduled $1.5 mil...seems as a Jewel race the weight carried should go at the prescribed 126.
Shortening the race benefits the quarterhorse trainers (er, I mean the TB trainers) like Bob Baffert, speedsters running at shorter distances.
Shortening races in the US is always met with glee and the Belmont and about 3-4 other races the entire year all across the US is the only classic distance stuff left anymore. Start shortening those and we all know who benefits.
I won't be tuning in. I think I"m pretty much done til BC and/or 2021 with US racing for rest of this season. Maybe play a few of the bush tracks out of boredom. Belmont at 9F is of absolutely no interest to me.
Hi Winter. And to all.I probably should have posted this note in my Conundrum thread.
The fallout of the epidemic will have repercussions on racing as it does the economy at large. Reduced purses (much based on track casino revenues, and the short fall of their closing during the epidemic. Further revenues will be diminished due to high unemployment and a substantial time for recovery.
The industry is going negative in that it rode the wave of full employment. Now, like Churchill, for example, they have to curtail their hotel expansion. And the track casinos compete with reservation casinos on every corner. And all that don't have tracks.
New blood owners at the beginner level will take its toll. Bug boys will have to have a trust fund or wealthy family to ride in a high cost of living area. Stable sizes/trainer and back stretch workers I guess will see consolidated necessity. The outcome of last year's Derby (after a consecutive string of Derbt fav winners and now the topsy turvy Triple 'Round dampened the keystones of annual one + new shooter players.
I'm interested to see how Saratoga fares. Last year Monmouth Park had to cancel races on big day due to heat.
I see a trend that like you, I played early Dec 2019. Twice this year.
And have an on line account that could take merely seconds to do.
I'm not a or we all at large are doomed but I see this zero sum game, unlike other sports and athletes taking a bad step on the far turn.
Things have settled in my personal life and Saratoga/Lake George and Monmouth/Jersey shore are in car striking distance. So I will provide stimulus to the game and locale economies.