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Future pools   Triple Crown

Started 1/24/21 by smartyslew; 3802 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Feb-20

DogsUp said...

Essential Quality is Derby Doggie Delta today and will run Oaklawn Saturday. Was canceled  last week.

And it's a whole Saturday since then, and still closed.  :)   And most everyone in my neighborhood still can't drive out of their driveway.  Today it will start to thaw out 
We got the most snow in Arkansas, from what I can see  That's 18-22 where plows and sanders are not common and many people do not even own a snow shovel.  :) 

thankfully they have the whole first part of the week to tend to the track, I bet it is a real mess. 
 

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Feb-20

That is a lot of snow in short fall anywhere.

Upstate NY gets a bit of Great Lake Ontario effect.

Snow here has been flaky light. Easy shovel. Plow guy does driveway. 

!I was glad! We had snow last night. Happy it snowed so I didn't want to go out.

Hoofnote: I smoke cigars in my house and get artist paint on my jeans, floor and walls. Stayed home no OTB.

So.... I didn't go to simulcast and bet a substantial $ on Knicks Go.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Feb-20

He was forced to run on the rail by Charlatan worst part of the track today.

Gosden told his jock to stay in the middle of the track and Eagen gave him a great ride.

Lauren Stich's pick and I liked for my exacta with Knicks Go who I'm biased  with

Because of Paynter. Still can't believe he lived to breed.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Feb-20

Fine observation. You know I'm into the anecdotal information of a race.

This was a $20 mil-yon purse. Winner. TEN. LARGE. Jockey a mil at 10%. Agent 25%. And that agent represents Johnny Vee and Rosario. AND Agent stood close to making much more for just putting it together  

Short story Johnny Vee gets literally taken off a plane for Covid clearances and Rosario has foresight to update his credentials to make flight by a photo nose.

Antennas (Dogs) up this gave me consternation to not bet Knicks Go. Why didn't the agent forecast and check, war game the Covid + Airline needs. And JV couldn't rebook for resolve. BTW.

They weren't going to a neighbor's BBQ. A walk over..

I just felt they were not more than ready. Smith got out- jocked where it counted.

(d)

  • Edited February 21, 2021 5:11 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 31
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-3

4 Into Mischief, 3 Tapits in pool 4

021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Official Field - Pool Four
# Name Pool 1
Final Odds
Pool 2
Final Odds
Pool 3
Final Odds
Pool 4
M/L Odds
Pool 4
Final Odds
  1 Caddo River 27-1 13-1 15-1 15-1
  2 Candy Man Rocket - - 35-1 30-1
  3 Collaborate - - - 30-1
  4 Concert Tour - 16-1 17-1 20-1
  5 Dream Shake - - 28-1 30-1
  6 Essential Quality 8-1 8-1 8-1 7-2
  7 Freedom Fighter - - 52-1 30-1
  8 Greatest Honour - 40-1 9-1 6-1
  9 Highly Motivated 18-1 24-1 37-1 20-1
10 Hot Rod Charlie 34-1 40-1 35-1 30-1
11 Hush of a Storm - - - 50-1
12 Keepmeinmind 19-1 19-1 25-1 30-1
13 Life Is Good 5-1 7-1 7-1 4-1
14 Mandaloun - 42-1 16-1 15-1
15 Medina Spirit - 24-1 25-1 30-1
16 Midnight Bourbon 59-1 26-1 41-1 30-1
17 Prevalence - - 14-1 20-1
18 Proxy - - - 20-1
19 Risk Taking - - 25-1 30-1
20 Roman Centurian - - 41-1 50-1
21 Rombauer - - - 50-1
22 Spielberg - 47-1 - 20-1
23 The Great One - - 38-1 50-1
24 Mutuel field (all other 3-year-olds) 6-5 9-5 3-1 10-1

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Mar-4

Damn.. The Great One + Collaborate are already on the radar. Connections will wak the best of 2 proportionately in this pool. 

Math now: IF one bet $20 EQ at 7-2 win = $50.  Versus May Derby bet $1 Exacta wheel..EQ all @ $1 exactly only has to come back $90 for same @$1. With chances for more

In reply toRe: msg 34
TexSquared

From: TexSquared

Mar-4

Always worth a look, compare the Derby future pools with the Euro bookmakers:

Kentucky Derby Betting Odds

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-6

Greatest Honour is the most Popular bet at 12-1 over there

Prevalence at 16 -1  is 5th most popular, and I haven't looked at him yet
so much more to learn. Thanks Tex.

top 5 popular bets:  83 percent have bet on these top 5 listed. 17 % all others

Greatest Honour (12/1) Life Is Good (10/1) Essential Quality (8/1) Concert Tour (12/1) Prevalence (16/1)

Greatest Honour  43.75 % of the bets,

In reply toRe: msg 36
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-8

IMO top Pedigrees : Essential Quality, Greatest Honour, Life Is Good

Prevalence, Proxy P/N(Tapit), Concert Tour , X= top Contenders,

N/P Midnight Bourbon, P/N Proxy, 21 others all P/P in Pool
4 Into Mischief, 3 Tapits Sires in pool 4. look em up,  

021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Official Field - Pool Four
# Name Pool 1
Final Odds
Pool 2
Final Odds
Pool 3
Final Odds
Pool 4
M/L Odds
Pool 4
Final Odds
  1 Caddo River  21a     8f 96 27-1 13-1 15-1 15-1 E 8      16-1
  2 Candy Man Rocket  A4  14 13c - 35-1 30-1     E/P 8    71-1
  3 Collaborate L  20b    8.5f 93 - - - 30-1 /        EP 4    29-1         
  4 Concert Tour  b  3c   7f  97 - 16-1 17-1 20-1 X   N           EP 6     17-1             
  5 Dream Shake  Lb  3h.  8 13c 6.5f 90  - 28-1 30-1 S4       71-1 
  6 Essential Quality b 1x 8, 9 13c, 8.5f 98    8-1 8-1 8-1 7-2 X    N      EP 4   5-1     
  7 Freedom Fighter  b  1n   7f 96 - - 52-1 30-1 E6      84-1
  8 Greatest Honour  8f   12f, 8.5 97 - 40-1 9-1 6-1 X      N     S 0       6-1      
  9 Highly Motivated  7a  6.5f 102 18-1 24-1 37-1 20-1 X        N      P6     36-1       
10 Hot Rod Charlie  b 11 d.  8.5f 93 34-1 40-1 35-1 30-1
...[Message truncated]
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DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Mar-8

The pool Today pretty much shakes out to what now appears the likely top 3; maybe 4. With what we know.  And fits my ticket construction if the race was today. 

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