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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 49253 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-24

Do you have that stat for Known Agenda ?

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-24

Oldbettowin said...

I think it was mostly the track.  Medina Spirit didn’t really run any better than he was capable of but there were plenty of others including Essential Quality that were capable of a lot more.

I agree and besides, judging a ride or even a run by a horse, in a true "chaos race" like the KY Derby, where we know "the best horse doesn't always win" because all sorts of things happen, just seems to be a race where I would hesitate to draw any true "conclusions" about anything.    If EQ was in a field of 10, w/Saez riding, then I might have a 2nd look. 

Max Sec in 2019 was able to avoid most all of it, other than the horses pressing the pace,  because he got out in front and stayed there.  I think he did start drifting and you can see the exact point in the race when he got "noticeably tired".  (understandably)..... and then he righted and persevered......Country House was getting his 2nd wind coming around that last turn as he had a lot of stamina and ....but for Max, it could have been any race at that point with a field of 5 or 20.   He was fast.  

Watching that race many times since it happened, it makes me feel melancholy in too many respects.  Watching them run over that horrible sloppy track, etc. Every year I want to hide my eyes, its all so dangerous w/that many horses and riders on the track.  That particular year was incredibly dangerous with the bumping, drifting, heel clipping, on a muddy track.   

I always felt bad for Max Sec because you could see that he tried very hard.  I don't fault the horse.    

God only knows what Servis had him on though, now that we know the whole story about him.  :(   

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-24

It was the painful right call.

The Derby, especially muddy, no inquiry or claim of foul unless a jockey takes a chain saw, electric cow prod or taser gun out of his boot.

I would have had that Tri in that Max also interfered with Johnny Vee  mount placing fifth, moved to fourth, needed a move to third.

It was an aggregious train wreck and as the video shows the Stewards took 22 minutes. Do the right thing.

This new drug test draconian embroilment that the Stews are dragged into is perhaps even more a night mare in progress than the 1st DQ adjudication by the 3 judges...Official. and Final.

  • Edited May 24, 2021 4:58 pm  by  DogsUp
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-24

So he had to take probably close to 3 1/2 more strides to get to the same finish line.  I wonder how many lengths that would translate to?  No idea.  I looked elsewhere for my derby horse because his odds were too low for the misgivings I had on him...the Bluegrass didn’t really have much pace even though it finished in decent time.   I was looking for Highly Motivated to press and be in position in the derby but they never backed up.  Then the third place horse from the Bluegrass took the Preakness after an honest pace on an honest track so EQ probably should have won the derby in retrospect.  

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

May-24

Known Agenda ran 6630 ft in 2:02.38 in the Derby. He ran 13 ft less than Medina Spirit and 81 less than Essential Quality.

  • Edited May 24, 2021 8:29 pm  by  cubs.fan
cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

May-24

A length is about 8 ft, so Essential Quality ran about 8.5 lengths/1.7 seconds farther than the winner. 

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-25

Okay so Medina ran appx. 6,600’ (?—just to keep it simple) in 2:01.02, or 54.54 feet per second on average.  EQ ran appx. 6,668’ in 2:01.22, or 55.01 feet per second.  So EQ was actually traveling 0.47 feet per second faster.  If both ran exactly 6,600 feet, EQ would have gotten there 1.04 seconds before Medina, or about 5 lengths.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-25

cubs.fan said...

Known Agenda ran 6630 ft in 2:02.38 in the Derby. He ran 13 ft less than Medina Spirit and 81 less than Essential Quality.

KA isn't a derby horse.  He's a grinder, one-paced stamina horse.  That does not work in the Derby.  To my mind the Ky Derby requires speed, both from the gate and being to stay just behind the 1st tier pacesetters, you gotta be close up.   The problem with KA is that I've never gotten to see him run a longer distance.   It was the same reason people didn't see Country House......in his OP races, he was always "on his way"......he just ran out of track.  Nobody saw Mine that Bird and yet he kept going.....and going......and going that day he won the Derby.    So, its always perplexing how to play these horses, because we often do not get to see them "do their thing" in the prep races (I actually dislike most of the prep races until they get to 1-1/8) and the derby and preakness are fast n' furious.      

The interesting thing about The Belmont is that there are no rules about what kind of running style works, because if you look over last 20 years every type of running style has won this. 

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

May-25

Known Agenda looks very similar to Vino Rosso at this point in his career. He has the pedigree for the Belmont and runs the turn well (ran the fastest 4th Quarter in his final prep of all Derby entrants). However, he also did not run at an even, grinding tempo in the Florida Derby. He had the second highest variance in his quarters ran in his final prep, whereas Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, and Midnight Bourbon had the lowest in theirs.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

May-25

They’re batting .007 with 1 out of 147.

Yet they remain neither shaken nor stirred! :-) 

  • Edited May 25, 2021 10:29 am  by  RAESFAN
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