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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 50390 views.
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

4/16/21

Oh I did see that but it didn’t explain why you would key him in second or third lol. 

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

4/16/21

What I like:  he’s in his sire’s first crop.  What I don’t like:  he’s ND-RAN-RAN-T2.  The RAN-RAN in the middle bothers me.  He’s and E/P type and runs pretty evenly, which is good, but I’m leaning toward a couple of the underneath horses being late runners this year and there are plenty of pressers I like more running late than him.

But I don’t really have anything against him, just curious.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

4/16/21

For reasons mentioned S-hood will not be keyed naked Rock Hard Ten exclusively

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/17/21

Thank you, and that is a logical point. 

I watched Pletcher horses work today.  Dynamic One was definitely faster than Bourbonic.  
Sainthood and Known Agenda worked together and looked about the same to me. 
I am not good at discerning works, but just like to see they are getting over the track okay. 

Tomorrow,  (Sat) Essential Quality, Mandaloun and Soup and Sandwich work early morn.   

These guys who bring their horses to Churchill early are the smart ones IMHO.  In case anyone needs that list here it is:
Obesos (first one to arrive at CDX in late march)
EQ, Soup, Helium, Sainthood, Dynamic One, Bourbonic, Known Agenda, Super Stock, Concert Tour April 6-April 14. 

As for "faces" Dynamic One and Sainthood are both kinda *adorable* looking to me! 
 

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

4/17/21

LMAO.  Adorable!  I like it 

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

4/17/21

I am looking outside the primary candidates, to identify a win candidate that not many will be considering. O Besos and Sainthood are the two I've identified so far. Midnight Bourbon is not as much of a long shot, but not a favorite either. What do I see in him:

1) By Tiznow, out of a Malibu Moon mare. While his dam is out of a Yes It's True mare, she also has one of my favorite TC contenders, Arts and Letters, a bit further back as well. 10f breeding in my opinion

2) Of the so-called Big Three that campaigned at the FG, he was the most consistent. He was never spectacular, but as race conditions, including distance changed, He brought his game. In fact, the 9.5f La. Derby was arguably his best effort. He challenged a much more Derby-like pace, than was run in previous two preps.

3. He has run best off a two month layoff. He will get 1.5 month layoff this time, and may move forward this time as well.

4. There are no world beaters in this race. He will be in any superfecta I construct.

5. He was four wide in the Iroquois at CD as a two year old, never more than two or so lengths off a fast pace(:45.60 at the half, 1:10 at 6f). Yet he finished 3.5 lengths clear of the third place finisher, Super Stock(Who I also like), while losing to closer, Sittin On Go. The latter has never found similar form after that career best effort. We know CD is a quirky track that not all horses like.

6. Matched Jackie's Warrior for the best of 15 times in his most recent CD work at 5f.

7. Has followed the traditional 3 prep schedule for the Derby, following a significant juvenile campaign. Good foundation!

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

4/17/21

Concert Tour out. Says owner and maybe Preak in. 

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

4/17/21

YouTube Mine That Bird Derby. And what (which is super hard to visually follow MTB at the turn and then into and up the rail. Even the track race caller can't see it. Even when colt is ..out front.

Then watch Sainthood. The winner gets bumped by another runner causing winner to bump into Sainthood BTW.

Hoofnote and anecdotal. The chart does not have claim of foul or inquiry.

But the extended longer Youtube J Ruby video at the very end has announcer saying results are unchanged.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

4/17/21

Well there were 12 horses in the Steaks Stakes and at the rate we’re going we might not have many more than that in the derby.  He does have La Troienne and Pocahontas where I like to see them in his pedigree but I have this nagging feeling that Pletcher was dodging the ones at the Fairgrounds and looking for a softer spot for him in Florence.  He ran him in a maiden at Gulfstream then 5 weeks later a maiden at the Fairgrounds then 6 weeks later in the Jeff Ruby.  The Louisiana Derby was only a week earlier.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

4/17/21

Just look at it as these trainers have owners that want to go to the Derby. And they place the horses in races where it can best be accomplished.

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