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Fla Derby   Triple Crown

Started 3/21/21 by Plus2lbs; 3658 views.
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

3/25/21

And to All. IMO

"E" Gads! YES..Noted you are not putting attention to the numbas.

The numbers (from different races) show only who was early but in perhaps in many cases did not continue on to Win. Or hit the board. And..Early Es Don't account for bad break out of gate, bumping/blocked, carried out/in or just runners style of intentionally lagging behind as a closer style.

And there is no, say, track variant to make a comparative number. How fast the track. Speed is a timed factor.

The ultimate winner Greatest Honor held along (with measured jockey positioning and timing) the rail and made his right hand turn to the outside, then finished out as he is a closer to convincingly win. This 3 second maneuver can only be a negative number outcome in the calculation.

In my post last week. My pick of Hot Rod Charlie noted he 'lost' 3 critical seconds in his last race going into Louie Derb. And would relish the near Derby distance 

As for Greatest Honour, recent posts here noted the pros and cons of jockey and horse race riding compatibility.

Jose Ortiz and Greatest Honour are connected like Legos.

  • Edited March 25, 2021 11:04 pm  by  DogsUp
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/25/21

DogsUp said:

"E" Gads! YES..Noted you are not putting attention to the numbas.

are you kidding I have all their races right here in front of me.

I posted this exercise because so many on here talk a lot about bris

designated racing types and used the last race as an example

Every thing else you said is obvious cappin.

Like you are the only one  that uses the type of tool box you talk about.

Pedigreestar

From: Pedigreestar

3/26/21

I have shortlisted as under winnner should emerge

1) Quantum Leap

2) Southern Passage

3) Sigiloso

4) Greatest Honour

5) Colloborate

6) Speilberg.

My Personal choice is Colloborate and Quantum Leap or Sigiloso for upset.

Ravi Gowande

Pedigreestar

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/26/21

Hi Ravi!   Always good to see you and your very interesting picks. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/26/21

princeofdoc said...

Yes, both are talented colts, and will be trying hard, certainly.....but for both, 1st time Lasix, as well as distance, and up in weights.....I think Collaborative will try to steal it, with S&S not far behind.  If they get out with soft fractions, could certainly last, but I like Known Agenda and GH to run them down.

The bomb could be Jirafales....I'll be playing him in the exotics, though I question no published works since his last.  Wondering why Romans is running Southern Passage back so quickly, there are other opportunities for a prep....

Castellano is taking Spielberg, he's a tough one to figure.....if the race was at Los Al, I'd give him a shot!

I was wavering between Collaborate and Known Agenda for the win..... decided to go with KA, I am not ready to put $$ on Collaborate with only 2 maidens under his belt, if he is an improving up-and-coming and can get 2 turns he will prove it on Sat and make the gate.  I mean, the odds won't be THAT great on him.  

Bombs for any kind of exotics might be Southern Passage or Quantum Leap. 

Honor doesn't have to win this, and there would be no shame in not doing so. 

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

3/26/21

To be honest, I never really understood the comment "doesn't have to win" in the Derby preps.....sure, he'll still qualify if he doesn't win, but why would he not run his best?  The only thing I could imagine would be not taking any chances weaving through traffic and pushing him to win, but if he gets a clear path, he certainly could still win.

I don't think he has been pushed in his previous two, so I think he is capable of much more...

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

3/26/21

Hi Ravi,

Are these your selections in order per pedigree analysis?  Quantum Leap being the best bred?

Pedigreestar

From: Pedigreestar

3/26/21

No they are not best pedigree to least. As per the numbers given in equibase logically from top to bottom as per Pedigreestar Analysis Best Pedigree can be for Sigiloso. But I have observed many times Pedigree is not active for certain period of time hence horse is not performing.   

Pedigreestar

From: Pedigreestar

3/26/21

If Sigiloso comes in the  money within first 4  and within 4 lenths to the winner then pedigree may be active and should be watched for future will improve for sure.

In reply toRe: msg 12
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/26/21

Because of Meds I  haven't bet to many races the last couple years and I haven't
Bet most of these preps, didn't bet last week not betting the preps this weekend
so don't confuse me with somebody on here that are Cappin These races,and compare it to me. If I do
start cappin I'll let you know and I have a toolbox full of tools that most on here use.
Here is a tidbit for the Florida Derby, I noticed First timers with no Lasix are low percentage
plays for the Prep winners, doesn't mean they can't win, odds are low.
5 entrants firsters might help for the win.  45% of field 
-----------------------------
Florida Derby First timers with out Lasix:
-----------------------------------------
Quantum Leap Last 2 L, L, Only win on Lasix, brk Mdn. in last
-
Southern Passage last 3 ,L L L, only Win 4 back ,no Lasix, slop, no wins 21,
-
Known Agenda last Lb, won by 11, Pletcher desperate only med race of 5, red Flag
6 entrants race written for ToD, imo
--
Soup And Sandwich 2 for 2, L, L, Sprint Number 8 pts higher than Route
field of 3 in last, field of 6 in 1st
--
Collaborate 2 races 1-1-0-0, Brk Mdn Last ..L, L
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