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Fla Derby   Triple Crown

Started 3/21/21 by Plus2lbs; 3637 views.
ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Mar-24

Greatest Honor has a spot locked up in the derby. Unless he's going for the Florida trifecta (H. Bull, FOY and Fla Derby) i'm thinking he'll run well enough for a paid workout. 

Not sold on Spielberg here. Liking Known Agenda, Papatu, Nova Rags and GH for the super/box.

I like Known Agenda for the win.

Thoughts?

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Mar-24

Collaborate and Soup and Sandwich are a couple of late blooming Derby hopefuls. Both look to have talent, and will be prepared to run big as this is their only shot to get in the big race. Collaborate will be bet down, while Soup and Sandwich will probably be a good price. I might take a chance on him to hit the board.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Mar-24

Yes, both are talented colts, and will be trying hard, certainly.....but for both, 1st time Lasix, as well as distance, and up in weights.....I think Collaborative will try to steal it, with S&S not far behind.  If they get out with soft fractions, could certainly last, but I like Known Agenda and GH to run them down.

The bomb could be Jirafales....I'll be playing him in the exotics, though I question no published works since his last.  Wondering why Romans is running Southern Passage back so quickly, there are other opportunities for a prep....

Castellano is taking Spielberg, he's a tough one to figure.....if the race was at Los Al, I'd give him a shot!

In reply toRe: msg 8
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Mar-25

FL Derby was always my most favorite prep race. 
This year, I have no idea who these horses are. 

Maybe I need to study up, but sometimes I am grateful for a "just watch" race, so I don't feel pressured to cap it.   

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Mar-25

You should feel pressure, Winter.....we depend upon your insights!

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

Mar-25

Would like to see racehorse times...

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-25

Here is some tidbits from bris: Florida Derby
this is to show that the designated style for a horse doesn't mean he will run that way'
from the last race each came out of. some were graded, msw, stks etc.
 

its hard to tell Greatest Honour coming out of a graded stks race early number would be 
the 3rd best from this group running early in the last race. I preferred not to put all the PP's
on here. But its the adjustment bris uses for these numbers last race coming from all kinds of races.

Early pace last race: slow for the group

1-Nova Rags p7 1st: 90 2nd, 9-Collaborate EP4 2nd 87-1st,7-Greatest Honour  S 0 3rd 85-1st 3-Jirafales S 0 4th 84-5th

Late Pace last:

8-Soup and Sandwiches EP 6) 1st 106-1st, 7-Greatest Honour  S 0 2nd 105-1st. 4-Southern Passage S 0 3rd 100-2nd, Quantum Leap EP 5 (4th98-1st.
, 11-Papetu P3, 4th 98-3rd.

Here is a race that type of horse style like E8,P7,S O, EP 4,etc shows why I seldom pay any attention
to them. Its like this a lot. early pace p7 type 1st, late pace type E P 6, 1st.'

NO E style in the Florida Derby race, where's the speed.  9 and 8???? with the 7 running 3rd ???

1-p7,2-EP 5, 3-s o,4-S 0, 5-P4, 6 -S1,7 -S 0, 8-EP 6,9-EP 4, 10-P2, 11-P3 (11 entrants)

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Mar-25

And to All. IMO

"E" Gads! YES..Noted you are not putting attention to the numbas.

The numbers (from different races) show only who was early but in perhaps in many cases did not continue on to Win. Or hit the board. And..Early Es Don't account for bad break out of gate, bumping/blocked, carried out/in or just runners style of intentionally lagging behind as a closer style.

And there is no, say, track variant to make a comparative number. How fast the track. Speed is a timed factor.

The ultimate winner Greatest Honor held along (with measured jockey positioning and timing) the rail and made his right hand turn to the outside, then finished out as he is a closer to convincingly win. This 3 second maneuver can only be a negative number outcome in the calculation.

In my post last week. My pick of Hot Rod Charlie noted he 'lost' 3 critical seconds in his last race going into Louie Derb. And would relish the near Derby distance 

As for Greatest Honour, recent posts here noted the pros and cons of jockey and horse race riding compatibility.

Jose Ortiz and Greatest Honour are connected like Legos.

  • Edited March 25, 2021 11:04 pm  by  DogsUp
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-25

DogsUp said:

"E" Gads! YES..Noted you are not putting attention to the numbas.

are you kidding I have all their races right here in front of me.

I posted this exercise because so many on here talk a lot about bris

designated racing types and used the last race as an example

Every thing else you said is obvious cappin.

Like you are the only one  that uses the type of tool box you talk about.

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