This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
Latest 4/8/21 by Wintertrian
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I really like Crowded Trade's Pedigree and I hope he has a full Sister ,I like that better
for breeding matching up all of the 1x thru Buckpasser, Big Red with Princequillo
and the family of Miswaki up the middle, imo MTR as a Bm Sire. not to take anything away
from Crowded Trade as a G1 Runner Prospect. MTR is getting better Mares .
Getting back to the UAE Derby. I just watched it again. Let's just say that I hope Essential Quality wins the BG is a romp. If he gets beat, Godolphin might decide to bring the winner of the UAE Derby to America, which I don't think they plan to do at this time. I'm not sure I want that horse in the Derby. He was wide the entire way around, and was able to win going away in good time. I don't care who was behind him. This horse seemed to grow up around two turns. That was an amazing performance!
I think we will know more after this weekend when 2 of their runners are competing.
For years he tried his way, an entrant from Dubai Prep to win the Derby.
I don't know how to answer this, I can't see 3 of his entrants in the Derby, I wonder if he feels like
its getting away from him ! Time changes people. That was a g0ood performance and he belongs if he comes imo.
They have tried to win the Derby their way. Wouldn’t it be something if they had two top candidates running in America, yet the one that they brought according to their earlier efforts, is the one to break through? How much satisfaction would that provide? If they have three that qualify, I won’t be mad if they all run. They all have shown themselves to be more legit contenders than most of the rest in my opinion.
I would like to see all three this year, they are all well bred for the classics and no Lasix
race day. That could be the edge the Sheik is waiting for and It's something I would do
and top it off with the Trifecta/ LOL.
RAESFAN said...If he gets beat, Godolphin might decide to bring the winner of the UAE Derby to America, which I don't think they plan to do at this time
Actually, I don't suspect many horses will come over this year but there are 2 from japan that would be worthy if not killer opponents but I just don't see it happening this year?
My objective appraisal of Rebel's Romance, is that he may be a real player in the Derby. I know about the history of the UAE Derby, but I think some things are different with this horse. The Meydan track is known for having a lot of kickback. One expert actually said that Rebel's Romance benefitted by being in the clear, where he avoided that. Of course, he's ignoring the fact that his wide trip carries with it, its own disadvantages. This horse closed gradually on the leaders from the back of the pack, while about six wide. Yet, he was able to kick clear by open lengths. His time was impressive when considering that there was no runup this year, according to an article I read.
From a pedigree standpoint, I would think a lot of the gurus would love this son of Dubawi(Dubai Millennium), who's out of a Street Cry mare. His sire has thrown some true distance horses, and Street Cry, his dam sire, has distance breeding all over, albeit on turf. This horse should want every bit of 10f. Heck, I've convinced myself. If Crowded Trade doesn't make it into the starting gate on the 1st Saturday in May, I will be all over this horse if he comes.
EDIT: We like to look at horses sired by the likes of Curlin and AP Indy as the "run all day" types, both racing 12f once in their lives. If you look back through RR's first four generations, you'll find at least a dozen Grade or Group 1 12f races. I think that he'll not only run all day, but he won't take all day to do it either.
I think the Covid protocols makes this an especially difficult year for foreign horses to compete in the Derby. I was certainly impressed with the race, but I also think this was a weaker field than in the past too. Not saying he couldn't hit the board, but I would be surprised.
This weekend's races should show us a lot about the main contenders, so I may feel differently after :)
When it comes to the “who did they beat” argument, I am always careful. If a horse loses a lot of ground in a race, and still runs fast time, I don’t think the performance is a function of its competition. The point to me, is that the horse ran well beyond 9.5f, and did it fast. He wasn’t a loose on the lead horse that faced no pressure, and saved ground all the way around. I don’t know what better horses could have done to keep him from running the time he did, or could have run faster than he did. Some performances are all about the horse itself, and I think that was one. He is bred to legitimately get a distance of ground. At Classic distances, the stretch out sprinters that often contest the TC races in our country, would be up against it, facing a horse like this, in my opinion. At 9f and under, not so much, but in these three races, he could be a real player at a good price!
If he is coming here ,Learn from the past and come real early, like today, don't wait until race week.
Get acclimated to North America, don't take the starch out of him. I agree with your observation
Of the race and to me the connections know what they have and executed it and I don't know
if they knew how strong the field was. They knew what they have and where they should be at
every pole and ran their race plan.