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Bluegrass Stakes   Triple Crown

Started 3/31/21 by princeofdoc; 3400 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/31/21

princeofdoc said...

I like Highly Motivated here,

Well he may just be right for this race.    If he makes the gate, I'll have an easy toss in the Derby, cuz I think the Gotham @1mi and that other stakes race he won as a sprinter is more up his alley than 10F.   


I remember getting this race WRONG (a lot!)  in the past.  Cherry Wine stands out as the one I left off.  Unfortunately, after that TC series,  poor horse never ran ITM again.  :(   Not even once.  

I'll try anyway. 
 

I think Essential Quality is the deserving favorite here and has already won 2x at KEEN
I also like 2 closers, Rombauer (good late kick) and Keepmeinmind (forgiving his Rebel) and seems to like KEEN.   Sire Laoban made it into the superfecta back in 2016.   

There are some fun longshots here that could fire.  I tossed Turfway horse-for-the-course Hush of a Storm.  Not feeing it for him. 
Roman's Sittin On Go would have to be a changed horse to hit the ticket on Sat. 
Lobo's Leblon was tempting as he appears to be a natural router.  But I dont' think he's ripe yet. 
Highly Motivated has every chance of running ITM here but I just don't like him to take up a spot in the Derby gate. My bias will be similar to when I didn't have Cherry Wine but I'm willing to leave him off my ticket since my ticket is only an exacta and going for value.  
Pletcher horse Untreated I just don't have enough data to go on.  Moving up in class on the basis of 1 route race which wasn't even that long...I had to pass. 

So that left Hidden Stash.   Vicki Oliver doesn't have great stakes race stats, but I am rooting for her and am taking the horse on the basis of Bejarano and fact that he ran ITM in all 4 of his routes. 


Exacta box:  Essential Quality, Hidden Stash, Keepmeinmind, Rombauer   (if track comes up muddy I will not play this)

 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/31/21

Spend $ 1 on straight Super those 4 listed in order of your Exacta box.

Doxa,Doxa, Aspidistra 2f strength, 9f strength With 13c and 23b families.

Or dime Super box = $2.40.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

3/31/21

I don't see much early speed in here. HM could steal it on the front end!

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/31/21

smartyslew said...

Spend $ 1 on straight Super those 4 listed in order of your Exacta box.

Doxa,Doxa, Aspidistra 2f strength, 9f strength With 13c and 23b families.

Or dime Super box = $2.40.

2 longshots in my lineup and closers in a race with little speed make me think that is not a good idea to expect all 4 to hit. 

1-1/8th isn't classic distance, but I chose the horses as if it were.   Probably more about my wishful thinking in terms of good pedigrees for the Ky Derby and who I'd like to see in the gate than about this race in particular. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/31/21

Slip Highly Motivated in there. your 4 a,b,c,d, a/b/ c.e/d/ or  d e/ or slip him in a or b

not much front runners in here. I've wheeled 5 or 6 in Supers for $1 units similiar to

this cheap bet. 

Don't forget Doxa is 1-s conduit, Your first 2 are La Troienne 1x, Doxa is part of a joke

Somebody use to think Doxa covered both 1-s and 1-x.

In reply toRe: msg 1
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

4/1/21

A little surprised at the morning line......I think that both EQ and HM are too low at 3/5 and 3-1.....I expect EQ to go off at even money, and HM at 9-2.

I will be playing those with Hidden Stash, way too high at 20-1.  He'll be bet down, probably to 12-1, but he figures here, along with Rombauer, though I think the win will come from my top 2 choices, EQ and HM.  Rooting for HM!

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

4/1/21

 If EQ goes off at just even money...high chance to lose.

I wouldn't bet him at even money. Suspect. Board screaming.

Was 4/5 in last.

"When there's a lot of money on the table, strange things happen." 

  • Edited April 1, 2021 3:33 am  by  DogsUp
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/1/21

smartyslew said...

Slip Highly Motivated in there. your 4 a,b,c,d, a/b/ c.e/d/ or  d e/ or slip him in a or b

not much front runners in here. I've wheeled 5 or 6 in Supers for $1 units similiar to

this cheap bet. 

 

Well I already said not using HM would be the hole in my ticket, but I think it might be "safe" for an exacta and I actually LIKE my ticket. 

The good thing about playing OP meet is that we have a scorekeeper in our 22-something group, and i've been able to see which kinds of wagers I do best at.  
 

Dogs, the favorite wins the BG about 60-something % of the time I think?   Art Collector (filly was 2nd fav),Vekoma, Good Magic.......Irap was a surprise because everyone ignored Sunland and he was there for his last 2 races so spent over a  month there, building LUNGS...(Romans was copying Mine That Bird perhaps with that high altitude training?) (everyone was on Trapwrit or McCracken that year.)  Irap paid big. 30+-1.
Then Brody's Cause was 2nd favorite, Carpe Diem was favorite, and so on.  

I had no idea what to do with the Tapeta horse because I really don't know Tapeta to dirt conversions, and if that would be different in cold season or warm season. 

What's good about this race:  we finally have some horses with some race recency and regularly scheduled works.  Trainers for #4, 3 and 9 have killer (but almost equal) stats for 2nd off the layoff.  

What's bad about this race:  It's the Bluegrass.  



 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/1/21

smartyslew said...

Doxa is part of a joke

Somebody use to think Doxa covered both 1-s and 1-x.

Haven't seen that dunce around for a while but he usually comes out of the woodwork around now.  I only participate on 3 sites now, so I won't run into him.   I think everyone has had enough of his repetitive hawking.  He missed his calling in the carnival world.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/1/21

smartyslew said...

Doxa is part of a joke

Somebody use to think Doxa covered both 1-s and 1-x.

Haven't seen that dunce around for a while but he usually comes out of the woodwork around now.  I only participate on 3 sites now (with sane people)  so I won't run into him.   I think everyone has had enough of his repetitive hawking.  He missed his calling in the carnival world.  

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