This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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I would be worried about Brooklyn Strong not having had a race since Fall of last year. Everyone else has raced in 2021.
the last 8 winners prepped in Florida and not New York.
Wintertrian said...BTW, Breadman (who Brooklyn Strong ran against in the Sleepy Hollw Stakes last year), is running at KEEN in the Transylvania on Friday, R9, along with Fire At Will (who I won $$ on @30-1) in the BC Juvie Turf. There's only 1 horse in the entire race with recency, every other one hasn't run since last year. Might see how that one turns out.
okay reporting in. It was only a 6 horse field, and Breadman didn't even make the superfecta.
Fire at Will ran 3rd.
McGuagheys Scarlet Sky ran 1st, Mark Casse Palazzi ran 2nd.
smartyslew said...the last 8 winners prepped in Florida and not New York.
That would be Prevalence, CandyManRocket, and Dynamic One,
other than the longshot Market Maven who has only raced at Parx, where Brooklyn Strong does his workouts. It just still bothers me that Brooklyn Strong has not raced since Dec 5 of last year. That's a full 4 months and he'll be first off the layoff. .
Weyburn does not interest me at all with an almost 20pt jump in last race and doesn't look like a good runner for the KY Derby anyway
The Big A is fortunate enough to have casino money stream to support substantial purses providing NYRA 'winter based racing.
The track is treated/winterized or they'd be vying for the Stanley Cup.
The big time jocks head South.
In years past a jockey like Ramon Dominguez or Irad Jr would stay back. Clean house. Then have all the good ones for State bred races and the better brands. By the time they finished up at Belmont and headed to Saratoga they were made jocks. Riding for everybody!
If the Wood had an Over/Under proposition for time at 6 fl of 12.3.
I'd take the over.
The track Thurs/sloppy + Friday/good and Saturday will be good. But slow times to date the 2 days for dirt races. Turf , yet normal. With windchill the Big race will be weather cooler than normal for downstate at Ozone Park NY. I love that city name. Must be cool to say I'm from Ozone.
So. Rarely in a G1 (but I do place importance on what mother nature sets up for her good terra); the surface to me says the jocks will ride for endurance against the field as it shakes out.
I even blogged earlier that I thought a horse would go out and stay out to force closer(s) to exhert themselves too early. Come home in a parade.
With a chess game for endurance possible I'll bet a Home Run ticket.
Well good luck Dogs.
I wouldn't even begin to try to cap AQ, a track I play about once every 5 years.
Ditto, GS or Tampa.
I've *tried* to play Fairgrounds and SAR but I can't win there. So I learned to not even try.
Over the years Ive done BEL, Woodbine, OP and sometimes CDX......and those are tracks I have at least a passing acquaintance with. But I keep a stable at racenet so I keep track of some of the aussie races, too.
Aqueduct is a strange track. When it is dry it can play really slow. The other day no mile race was completed in under 1:40. It is often faster when wet or drying out. On most days this year, 1:12 for 6f would have been flying. I would definitely say it will be slower than that. Nevertheless, they need to be careful of giving Market Maven an easy lead. He is improving, and can take them a long way at a huge price. He might be disrespected and allowed to lope along on the front end, and be difficult to run down. Worth a show bet, I think.
When all is said and done, I think the Gotham form will stand up. The number was very good, and a lot of people looked at the actual running time on a track that was running slow. Crowded Trade got beat by a booger, and I think he ran the better race, losing more ground, and galloping out better than Weyburn.
You got me second guessing the Woodie
At first.went with..winner goes to lead and forces closers to overwork on dull track..
Tonight said nobody goes out and a grind it out by endurance and jockey smarts.
I'm thinking the surface can make polenta of the legs and a exotic price emerges.