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KY Derby Leaderboard   Triple Crown

Started Apr-4 by Wintertrian; 4926 views.
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-7

Colts that get off at the 9 furlong bus 'Stop at less weight and distance, an additional furlong 8+ pounds won't win at Bus destination Derby wire. 

This crop offers (hope rain) who can last underneath  vertical ala clunk up and/or just one moderate not having his day.

I did go for the Home Run ticket as I said and as I analyzed the Wood. Even more to my surprise and it was the largest win price ever on my exotic in over 50 years. 

  • Edited April 7, 2021 2:09 pm  by  DogsUp
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-7

DogsUp said...

I did go for the Home Run ticket as I said and as I analyzed the Wood. Even more to my surprise and it was the largest win price ever on my exotic in over 50 years. 

50 years! Congrats. 

I think he can do the Belmont. What say you?   Won't get those odds though. 

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-7

The Wood I said track slow both days before.

I said if there was an over under bet of  the Wood at 6 fl at 13.4. I'd bet the over... 

It was 15 and change. G1! FIFTEEN.

The Derby will be (fast track if) 111.2 say conservative par. Mile 1:36 perhaps ticks. Throw in bugs and termites 20 runners.

Wood winner will not be in the race.

*Albeit my ticket construction is always home run in Derby. And if it comes short paying..have short ticket and the bomb ticket might yield just a few bucks.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-7

Did you notice in the Excelsior, a graded race, the 6f went in 1:17????? Ridiculous! What did they prove last weekend. If I had a horse running on that surface, I would have considered that a throw out race moving forward. Not every horse handles a muddy track, and in its own way, that was an “off track” as well!

  • Edited April 7, 2021 2:32 pm  by  RAESFAN
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-7

smartyslew said:

the breeding improved a lot since they went to this point system and imo there isn't enough classic distance races to show case what we have, It's a shame.

Very important point.  Like breeding dachshunds & saying they cannot dig in the dirt.  The singular beauty of the thoroughbred is its ability to run fast across a very wide spectrum of distances.  We're choking on 5 to 9 furlong races in the US & going begging for 10f & up.  Wonder how many true routers & stayers never get a chance to express themselves & perhaps even their excellence?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-7

There is nothing for 4,5,6,etc yr olds in their prime years except the BC classic.

that Pegasus race at 9f is a joke. Someone could start a series like the TC

for 4 yr old's run the same months as 3 yr old's series. and a 4 and up series.

The crop is dwindling each year, get rid of the drugs and save the T'breds.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-7

Surface is what it is. And-when it is.

A great example was now defunct Calder.

The dirt; sand, soil created about a 2 second slower par time against other know tracks. Say Calder horse moves to another track. New surface 'may give him 2 seconds better. Visa versa horse runs at Belmont..goes to Calder. Surface say takes 2 seconds off his time.

Track variants count. 

If one wants to test. Add the the speed rating and the track variant in the Wood for example. The Parx horses times not as good as the favs but they were running priors on lesser card days = race conditions, and the surface added. Slow track.

They show up in the Wood and 6 fl is 15 and change. Hell The Husk and I would have moved up in the final chart. 

The Kentucky Derby is not kind and unforgiving to colts that can't handle 1:11 at 6 furlongs, crowded by tiring colts in front of them carrying 8 more pound package, needing a KO punch and not having a surgical big time jockey a top.

Great example Run Happy. Not Kentucky Derby.  Ran at EIP plastic track. Goes to Saratoga 7fl G 1 dirt makes him fam-ous. Same for Gold Box from EIP el plastico to BC filly win. This 'notion always surfaces in my capping.

Could make an example for conversation case for surface being the game changer as in a turf surface to dirt or visa versa.

As said some turfers can't even stand up on dirt. Then there's like Doug O'Neill who sees Lava Man's runs on the lawn and claims him to put him on the top soil. And the horse proved him right. Think about the connections that lost him. This kind of thing surfaces to my attention. And I wish I'd had that thought when grasser Animal Kingdom moved to dirty in his KD win. Then to Dubai was time to get it right 

Surface outcome times are a big deal in my book diary.

See my Wood memorial comments. Handicapped at prior 2 day times and surface. Said it be a home run ticket construction. The race became 115+ at 6fl = endurance and race riding for the next 3 fl. 

If the Prior Wood races were on razor sharp times for 2 days..a different posture. 

The Derby is in our back yard. No waiting for the 1st Saturday in May.

Comes the first day.

If anything double down on wearing a mask. The new virus strain is here. 

Best (d)

  • Edited April 7, 2021 4:01 pm  by  DogsUp
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-8

SameSteve G said...

Wonder how many true routers & stayers never get a chance to express themselves & perhaps even their excellence?

I think about this all the time.   

It esp. bothers me that horses "capable" of this are largely disrepected here because they don't beat out the 9Fers in prep races.  They run 3rd or 4th and they fall completely  off the radar. 

Obesos is actually a perfect example.  Pedigree wise he's got it, just like Country House did.(his races at OP,  he was always coming on before stretch....but not enough to get 2nd or 1st..he need a bit more track.   Mr. Big News, anohter example, in the bluegrass).     But only the Mandalouns and Hot Rod Charlies will get noticed......9Fers of course.   

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-8

Something Steve Roman said to me comes to mind. 

To paraphrase:  Imagine if Yeats had been bred in Maryland.

Instead of 4 straight Gold Cups at 2 1/2 miles, he likely would have toiled & raced in obscurity in the US.

I'd also add that as a fan & bettor, I get bored watching the everyday US sport.  Dullsville.  

DogsUp said:

Hell The Husk and I would have moved up in the final chart. 

You give me too much credit.  Your insights are much appreciated, though.

And, I agree 100% on the new strain of the coronavirus.

(I DID have Animal Kingdom in the Derby, however.)

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