This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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Prince I just have this strange feeling that CT won't make the Preakness. Can't put my finger on it but something not right with that horse.......I think he may have breathing problems and/or in addition to not being able to pass horses going 9F. Something isn't adding up here.
I'm usually about as far afield from conspiracy theories as you can get.........but when it comes to Baffert.......
Remember guys, there are two horses that have the initials "CT". Concert Tour and Crowded Trade. Both are being pointed to the Preakness. Just for clarity, we might want to write their names out.
Perhaps BB is finally thinking about the horse, perhaps with help from the owners. He got started late, rushed into stakes competition, and he may need more time....OR, as you say, there is something wrong with the horse.
Now that i drafted Helium I watched the TB replay. Looks like he ran 1 1/8 being so wide plus he toyed with everyone . He bolted to the lead after the last turn and then said oh well ho him mow what?? and the the Stash pulled up and Helium said no way here I go again!!!! Im biased for sure but if this horse is like I hope I better put some action on him atb. He may surprise!!!! North
Northof64 said...I watched the TB replay
He went 5 wide and just ran everyone down. Why I started the topic on him......because he "belongs" in the race.
I never ignore an undefeated horse. However, he's a tad shy on a number of the "factors" that people use. But that's heck of a lot better than using a horse based on nothing more than "the Baffert factor" esp. when they haven't run well.
As I was thinking about the KY Derby, I just saw the prohibitive favorite in an Australian race toss his rider.
Well gosh, steal my horse for the contest and now you're a fan. LOL Just kidding.
Hey I went back and watched his early races in the Display Stakes where he stalked then went 3-4 wide and burst past everyone by 4 lengths.
Then I watched his earliest maiden race. He "dueled" with Excellorator, a horse who really "digs in" and just won the Frederico Tesio Stakes last week at 1-1/8 (but was DQed to 2nd) but Helium won that maiden race against that horse by over 3 lengths as a maiden.
Just saying I don't think Helium is a wimp. And his Tampa Derby was great. Helium is still one of my longshots if he draws close to the rail. i acutally like both of Casse's horses.
By the way everyone hates Leparoux it seems??????
Can you find the topic where we discussed the horses who did better at 1-1/16th that (maybe dumb, maybe not) angle you and I came up with? I lost the topic!
Message 176 under dogs derby diary we talk about it. You definitely got me looking at helium. I appreciate it.
When I watch the TB Derby I see two things. The first, a horse came wide around the turn, angled in and held off a challenger to win. The second thing is except for Moonlite something, every horse that was near the front in the early going finished up the track. One makes me think he could be one to watch while the other makes me think he was just picking off lower class horses but I don’t know. Brisnet and the Racing Post just gave it a meh.
Oldbettowin said...Brisnet and the Racing Post just gave it a meh.
Is this the same Brisnet that had Animal Kingdom as 8th choice at 30-1 in 2011? And said he was switching to a low % jockey?
(despite Alborado rode him in his first 2 races where he did great when horse was with Catalano).
Motion put him on Turf in Florida, then ran him on all weather at 1-1/8 in the Spiral where he won.
And went BACK to Alborado for the Derby. (I forgot why?)
I look at their stats on the horses for data........ not their opinions.
Hey, not saying Helium is my pick to win. I don'tknow yet. I like another AW horse in here as well as a few of the pletcher's too.
Well what I just posted was my opinion. I don’t know anything about Brisnet’s opinion except to the extent it’s reflected in their speed rating. AK was kind of the “exception that proves the rule” as far as AW runners go. His best race after the derby was the Dubai World Cup (which was tapeta at the time) but boy did he take to the CD surface, which is probably what drove his odds down from the 30-1 ml to 21-1.
If you hear anything similar about one loving the Churchill surface, all weather or otherwise, make sure you let us know lol.