This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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Oldbettowin said...One other thing to keep in mind about Helium—and Hidden Stash— is that the one he edged out in Tampa came back four weeks later and lost to EQ & HM by 10 lengths in the Bluegrass.
That's a good point.
But it also relies on what your thought of that race (Bluegrass) in general, and hence, the horses coming out of it. I did due dilligence and watch all his other races by pulling up replays on my twinspires account. Horses who win at Woodbine tend to get ignored anyway, as we saw with mine that bird.
As I've noted, Helium is short a few straws on so many angles, including his pedigree on both sides for this, he's an almost in so many ways. Being an "almost" is usually not good enough in the KY Derby.
It's just that I can't "un-see" his race at Tampa, running 5 wide, inhaling ground, his first time on dirt and first time in a route. When a horse does stuff like that, "first time" in more than one area, I have to notice. Born in April, by the way. Different than being born in January.
Also Jon white gave him only 1 strike. But there are others he gave good scores, too, Like A King has zero strikes, another horse I like......and there are other horses I do like since I don't think Helium has the speed that many of this bunch has.
I'm just responding since I started the topic. I could / should have started a topic about Obesos (will put Midnight Bourbon to shame), or Sainthood (born in May), both of whom I like a whole bunch! Both run off the pace.
Obesos - been at CD since early April:
--5f, Mar 12th, in 1:00.80 @FG
--4f, April 5th, in 49.00 @CD
--5f, April 13th, in 1:00.60 @CD
I still like Helium and he was supplemented into the Derby.
This is not the right race for him, the Belmont might be though.
.I realize he is probably not Street Sense, who went from Tampa Derby to KY Derby winner......but horses coming out of that race at Tampa usually do great in the Belmont....(Tapwrit, Destin, Tacitus). It will be interesting to see how he runs in the Derby which requires more speed...... then I hope he goes in the Belmont.
A big difference with Street Sense and Helium regarding their racing pre-Derby.....Yes, they both won the Tampa Derby, but 4 weeks later, SS raced in the Bluegrass, coming in 2nd. Helium is trying to do the near impossible and work up to the race.
I'll do some research, but I certainly cannot remember the last Derby winner who hadn't raced in 8 weeks
Not only has Helium not raced in 8 weeks, it was his only start at three. I can't overlook all that.
Two others in this race as well.
princeofdoc said...big difference with Street Sense and Helium regarding their racing pre-Derby..
And that's why I said: "I realize he's not Street Sense" in my post. :)
To quote myself: "This is not the right race for him (Helium), the Belmont might be though. .I realize he is probably not Street Sense, who went from Tampa Derby to KY Derby winner......but horses coming out of that race at Tampa usually do great in the Belmont"
Not sure how you misinterpreted this to mean I thought they were alike in any way.
Helium sure didn't embarass himself.
Ran right up there with the top 3 for much of the race, I was watching his saddle cloth.
I have to wonder what Casse was thinking when he under-prepared this horse for the race. This one could have been a contender in the superfecta. Meanwhile Casse literally gave him no prep, no bottom. Given that, the horse did very well.
Ran out of steam around the time EQ passed him.