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Off track for Derby   Triple Crown

Started Apr-15 by princeofdoc; 833 views.
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-15

I could be wrong, but I think the last 3 Derby's held in May were on sloppy/sealed tracks.....any specific handicapping for this trend?

I love Street Sense colts on off tracks, so I would move Concert Tour up, if he goes....

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-15

If it rains then EQ is a complete and utter shoe-in. IMHO.    or his other horse, Mandaloun though not likely.
Highly motivated (one you like?) has run on slop. 
I wish King Fury would get in.....he won on mud.  

Actually I dont' even make wagers at Oaklawn, a track I play DAILY and know very well.......I would completely pass opening my wallet on Derby Day if it's slop.   

 HRC, SuperStock, Concert Tour, Bourbonic, Dream Shake and Helium might probably work, too.  

chroses

From: chroses

Apr-15

He arrived Tuesday

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-15

As Winter says and has said, the good ones, the winners can go on any surface.

This field has limited slop runs. Could look at breeding. There is a DRF number that scores breeding for slop. Useage can be for a full field of maidens to experienced runners with some never on the mud.

Dog's is coining a new word tonight. When the 20 horse field can put mud weight and water on horse and saddle, change footing, create crowds, jockeys looking for best paths...just construct an Evil Can Evil ticket.

My tickets for DQ Derby had the #20 in Win hole - Wheeling tixs, had my horse that finished 5th place 4th in DQ (Johnny Bee had to pull a safety check) so didn't get fourth. Tri was Mine.

Handicap as if the ticket will be run on terra perfect or in a tsunami with volcano erupting. .

When I call a horse the Delta Horse it's the 1 in 20 in this case that if all happens above will hit the board. And it can be also the other horse. Example Secretariat is the horse. So of the 19 left one determines the next Delta#2.

Bet Sect/#2/All

Sect/All/2

Or have a couple of Delta 2s.

In some cases both tickets be winners 

Or put 3 Deltas to win on top and garnish 2nds and 3rds for tri..or add 4th for super.

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Apr-16

Bourbonic too a ton of kickback in the Wood albeit dry dirt. I would assume he can handle slop. 

I'll be checking weather reports 1 week out and pp's as well.

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Apr-16

Of the 6 you mentioned for possible slop runners only Bourbonic fits that criteria one on turf and one on mud.

top mudders...EQ, HRC, KA, Mandaloun and HM---those that have 100+ Bris Sp. #'s

Bourbonic, MS, HS, O besos and Like the King have mud figs that are below 100 Bris Sp. #s.

Just pointing that out.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-19

ChiefsCrown said...

Bourbonic too a ton of kickback in the Wood albeit dry dirt. I would assume he can handle slop. 

But that's the thing, Chief.  
You do not KNOW the emotional/psychological *effect* that has on a horse in their next race. 

There are horses who can take it.   There are other horses who, having taken all that dirt like Bourbonic did, and having sand up their nose and in their eyes for days afterwards, say to themselves in the gate for their next race:  "No way I'm doing THAT again."

See what I mean?  i know this from training dogs.  They have emotional memories and sometimes just one episode of a very bad experience can take months, or even years, to get them *right* again.   PSTD type stuff if you will.  I have friends who train search and rescue dogs and some of them are unable to repeat or even do their jobs after certain experiences.   

So because they did it once, does not mean they will do it again. 


When we all saw the photo of him at Bloodhorse, and declared "that is a warrior".........doing something once does not a warrior make.    In combat, it's all about doing it over and over and over again.  THAT is what makes a war horse and true warrior.  

 

ChiefsCrown said...

Of the 6 you mentioned for possible slop runners only Bourbonic fits that criteria one on turf and one on mud.

top mudders...EQ, HRC, KA, Mandaloun and HM---those that have 100+ Bris Sp. #'s

Bourbonic, MS, HS, O besos and Like the King have mud figs that are below 100 Bris Sp. #s.

Just pointing that out.

you are going on PPs, something a horse did once. 

I am putting breeding/pedigree into the mix, which BRIS cannot predict.   I can go back to BRIS and DRF pp's and look at off track ratings and prove how they didn't work.   Like I said above, doing something once does not prove anything.  

The other important thing is:   how often do the horses work in the rain and mud?  What tracks have that a lot?  (I know Oaklawn does because I live here)    How often they encounter mud/slop in the course of their training is uber-importnat.  They only race once in a while.  They work and gallop on a regular basis.  

I always to the early morning works at OP .....I can tell you which horses works well in slop......and others who did it once in a race and will never do it again, becasue that race just happened to "set up" for them.......mostly because they hated mud less than the other horses in the race.  That doesn't mean they love it.   

Mine that Bird.......well he loved it......SPLISH SPLASH.......just like some children do.

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Apr-19

Derby slop...General Quarters first and foremost comes to mind. Dug mud out of his nostrils for 2 days after the race.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-20

GQ was a good horse.  Many won't notice but he is in the rarified air of horses who have won graded stakes races (1 G2, 2 G1s) on 3 different surfaces.   Thus a horse who can "run on anything."

THere aren't a lot of those, not in the graded stakes category.  Lava Man, Einstein, Monterey Jazz, Mushka, Panty Raid, Sydney's Candy, and a few others....... who have won GRADED STAKES on dirt, synth and turf.  (in the U.S.)  There just aren't a lot of them who have won graded on 3 surfaces and they don't get enough attention for doing so.  To me, these are real champions.   

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Apr-20

Loved "The General", used him in the derby. Loved the fact his trainer had but one horse and that was Quarters!! Too bad the track wasn't dry, think he might have got ITM.

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