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Triple Crown Series   Triple Crown

Started Apr-18 by smartyslew; 23792 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-19

That's fine.  Understand. 

I wasn't addressing the question *directly* to you but thanks for sharing.........

I am/was wondering how other people do it.  How do you come up with a figure when there is none that fits into the "publishing" mode on PPs. 


It's like my comment about mud/slop.  People only look at races.  Horses who are stabled at tracks in barns where it rains cats n' dogs work and gallop in slop very frequently.  PPs don;t tell you that.  It's uber important, as is their breeding for such a task, even if they don't barn where there is a lot of rain. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-19

I'm sorry I thought you were talking about things like late pace and geared down not on the PP's, 

or similar like bumped at start, track bias, bumped at turn or 8 wide coming home,

The PP's are usually for once on the track. 

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-19

I don't use the PP's at all for the Derby.....I watch all the races, make notes, go from there.  PP's, for me, are for races where I don't know the horses, and am unfamiliar with their races

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-19

An example of something the PP's don't disclose.....Known Agenda's race in the Sam Davis, coming in 5th.  Watch the race, see just how full of run he was.  Not a surprise how well he ran next out.  Not sure how I feel about his chances in the Derby, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran well

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-19

I read the race charts first, write down the tidbits, bumped wide on turn, etc watch the replays looking for them (tidbits)

Off the race chart I  write down the splits and note small adjustments, the last few years I compare the Raw time

with  bris ep numbers and late pace numbers , supposedly the numbers include track variants, class, g1,g2, and the

distance, wide trips, bumping, blocked etc. the fastest raw time doesn't always have the best speed number.

Thats the  last prep race  only.  I use those numbers for my 1/8 pole chart., i do after the draw 

the last few years I compare all speed figures.  if you look at the late pace raw numbers

I put on here I think they noticed what you did, he has the highest late speed  number in the field,  112

Since Dr Roman Retired I started using Bris numbers  recaps for Early, EP, and late pace numbers against the Raw Time.

Anybody like  another sight better for that ?

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-19

You are smart to use your eyes, not paper data.  

 

princeofdoc said...

Known Agenda's race in the Sam Davis, coming in 5th.  Watch the race, see just how full of run he was.  Not a surprise how well he ran next out.  Not sure how I feel about his chances in the Derby, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran well

That's the luck part.  Field of 20, most look to be mid-pack runners this year, not a whole lot of upfront speed demons left, so that means traffic.  Any horse can run into a wall of horses and get blocked, even if they are the best horse in the race.  

I usually stick with the "quality" speed, and trackers, and sometimes a closer to wipe up in case everyone tires in the stretch.   Midpack runners give me *worries* in a field this large but will put 2 on my ticket. 

In reply toRe: msg 14
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-19

9 top closing 3f time for 9 f preps,   and 3 3/16 f time for 9.3/16 preps
Bris   Raw time  with the  bris number LP number last prep
 last 3 f time, La Derby last 3 3/16 f, Ruby last 2.5 f,
------------------Raw Time --------Bris late pace number
Essential Quality     36.32                    106
Highly Motivated    36.43                     105
Known Agenda        36.66                    112
Hidden Stash         37.47                       94
Soup And Sandwich  37.71                   101
Like The King        37.87 aw                   95
Bourbonic             37.89                       109 wood
---------
O besos                  43.21            9 3/16 f          96
Midnight Bourbon 44.01          9 3/16 f             95
In reply toRe: msg 16
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-20

Remember preps Like The Louisiana Derby with the 9 3/16 distance is still a Grade 2 event .

I suggest use your own judgment if you think the race is on par with the grade one preps

and the numbers speed figures , some speed figures are adjusted for that.

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Apr-20

I think with all the speed this race has entered, Essential Quality E/P4 and Known Agenda P3 are mostly must use horses. Brisnet is my go to pp source. Too much info there to digest.

In reply toRe: msg 18
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-21

Looks like Baffert gets special treatment again.

Hozier was Taken off the Derby Board a few days ago at the Official site

and we had a few defections and King Fury was moved up to number 21 .

Today Hozier was back on listed #21, one ahead  of King Fury, anybody know why?

Get on it Kenny McPeek..

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