Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 479
    MEMBERS
  • 25679
    MESSAGES
  • 0
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Triple Crown Series   Triple Crown

Started 4/18/21 by smartyslew; 24810 views.
In reply toRe: msg 162
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

28 day or less layoff or derby  all itm ok
all but Rebels Romance, 
--
gr1 races:
all but
Overtook, 
----
raced 3 times at 2
Bourbonic, Essential Quality,--1st
France Go De Ina, Known Agenda--4th,
 Overtook,
--
106 beyer:
none
-
beyer top:last
Essential Quality 100-=1st
Rombauer  102--3rd
Hot Rod Charlie 100--2nd
Overtook  84
----- 
2 or more 100+ beyer
none
-- 
92 beyer at 2:
Essential Quality  95--1st
Hot Rod Charlie  94..2nd
-- 
3 to 6 races at 3:
all but
, France Go de 
--
stakes win at 3:-----------------------------------1st 5 qualified
Bourbonic, Essential Quality, H R Char.
Known Agenda, Rebels Romance,
Rock Your World, Rombauer
---
stakes win at 2:
 Essential Quality  front line winner
--
raced at belmont:  weak this year
Bourbonic, 
Known Agenda,-4th    Overtook,
-- 
career wins,no. 100+ beyers,no 106 beyer-neutral
n/a
----- 
stalking style---1st 3
 Essential Quality
HR Char, Rombauer,
-- 
beat how many rivals-1 pt-leader
n/a
- 
lost ground in last:  all out of the money good angle
Bourbonic, ,France go
Rock Your World,
 --
 won on the lead and not on the lead, no mdn
Essential Quality   yup
-- 
races in a row on the improve-beyer
Essential Quality 6, 69-88-95-96-97-100  1st
Rombauer 3, 84-88-102    3rd
Hot Rod Charlie 3 ,94,99,100   2nd
Overtook 4, 46-70-83-84
-----
races in a row on the improve-bris
Hot Rod Charlie 3, 93-96-103    2nd
Overtook 4, 69-80-88-95
Rombauer 3, 91-96-100    3rd
---- 
belmont contenders variant.last race only
3 yr old races-routes
parenthesis is horses number, plus or minus is the variant
listed the ones who beat the variant
-
Essential Quality var 4, 3 +1  97   100 beyer-- 1st 3 still a good angle
Rombauer     var 3, +1  98   102   beyer
Hot Rod Charlie  var 4 +1  97,    100 beyer
----- 
plus or minus of variant last 3 routes-dirt-no scoring
important to see those 3 races and added dd
---
 Bourbonic  -14, -1(won),  +5,
Essential Quality  +1,+6(won) +2 (won) slop
Rombauer  +1,(won)  0, N/A,
Hot Rod Charlie +1, +9(won)  +3
Known Agenda -9 (Derby) +2 (won) 0 (won )
Rock Your World -22 (Derby), 0 (won) +4 (won)
Overtook   -4,-4, -2(won)
-------
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
In reply toRe: msg 163
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

1 pt-tt-quarter only last race    scored on another page
 Essential Quality 23.85,Hot Rod Charlie 24.53,
Known Agenda 24.74,Overtook 24.81, Rombauer 23.51
---
lead at 1/8 pole, 9f or longer, any 3 yr old race
--
Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie,
Known Agenda, Rock Your World
Rombauer, Rebels Romance
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Jun-2

aces in a row on the improve-bris
Hot Rod Charlie 3, 93-96-100
Overtook 4, 69-80-88-95
Rombauer 3, 91-96-100
 
Rombauer’s should be 91-96-103.  
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

Thanks, I'll correct it !

In reply toRe: msg 164
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

RAN BM Sire Line:1 negative pt       neutral
Bourbonic, Essential Quality, France Go
 Rock your World
--- 
dosage points
2008--DaTara--12-----4-2-5-0-1
2005-Afleet Alex-14--5-0-9-0-0
1966-Amberoid--14---1-3-6-0-4
1959-Sword Dancer-10--2-0-2-5-1
1950-Middleground-12--6-0-4-0-2
1944-Bounding Home-10--2-2-0-5-1
1943-Count Fleet(TC)--4--0-2-1-1-0
---------
1 negative pt   the winner was good
,Hot Rod C 10,
Rombauer 10 Incomplete, some Argentina pedigree
--
 
belmont winners
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
In reply toRe: msg 167
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

Afleet Alex,Sarava,Thunder Gulch ,ruler on ice
these are the only 4   0-0 Belmont winners without a
stamina chef in 5 generations. In fact they are the only 3
without a stamina chef going back thru 1940. 3 others
Jazil(RF),Point Given,Hansel going back thru 1970, have only one
stamina chef in 5 generations.those 3 and Touch Gold,Danzig Connection
that don't have a stamina chef on the Sire side.thats 8 winners
without a stamina chef on the sire side.add ruler on ice to this,union rags
-- 
0-0 stamina contender without a stam chef in 5 gen.1negative pt--EQ is good
Bourbonic, Hot Rod Charlie,
- 
only one stamina chef- 1negative pt  winner is good
Brooklyn Strong, Overtook, Rombauer,
- 
no stam chef-sire side- 1 negative  winner is good
Bourbonic,Hot Rod Charlie,
- 
stam chef 4 gen------------------- 1 positive pt   
Brooklyn Strong, Essential Quality-1st, Known Agenda,
Rebels Romance, Rock Your World
 -
dominate  classic pts -1 positive pt 
None, I mean nobody
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 only 8 winners have a cmp stamina 1.07 or higher, highest 1.17
Hot Rod Charlie 1.31 -2nd winner good
--
Horse cmp s/s more speed pts than stam-1 negative pt
 0
------------------- 
Grand Sires Dams more speed than stam:1 negative pt
-
 Essential Q good
Hot Rod Charlie-2nd
--
  the X passing position on the dam side- 1 pt 
-All
-
contenders with conduit belmont winners-1pt
--
Essential Quality 1x La troienne; 2 Bimelich(son) Easy Goer !st
(This is 3rd Belmont Winner for Conduit La Troienne 1x (BPT)
11th TC winner for Her 4 derby, 4 preakness .3 Belmont) Greatest of all time
move over Doxa..   :)
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
In reply toRe: msg 168
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

-
ran sire line with la troienne in a passing position  Winner not here
Known Agenda,  Overtook, Rebels Romance
Rock Your World, Rombauer, 
no la troienne in a passing position-  winner is good
,France Go De Ina
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 generation black type winners:23
Essential Q. 31 
reine 5 gen 10:1 pt
-
BPT conduits in 5 gen
Essential Q 13---1st
--
big 4 large heart in a pp= 1 pt
 all
--
6sx 6d : big 4 large heart or closer=1 pt:
0
big 4 lh in a pp  6th generation or closer:1 pt
Overtook- Prince   otm
--
2 daughters or more of big red on each side in 5 generations
Essential Qualty  3          winner
-
10 gen dc mares Dam Side in a PP-20= 1 pt
--
Overtook      49
Essential Q. 38----1st
Known Agenda  29--4th
Rombauer     21---3rd
 Bourbonic 20---5th
Hot Rod Charlie 20--2nd
-
5 gen Double copy Large Heart  Mares
Overtook 8   0tm
Knownj Agenda 4--4th
Essential Qu.  3   1st in race
--
In reply toRe: msg 169
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

byerley and godolphan 5 gen. line 22-32-1 positive pt
Rock Your World  10
Essential Quality 7       winner
Overtook   7
France go  3
Known Agenda 6
Rebels Romance 4
Rombauer  5
-- 
n/p and byerley, godolphan lines-top 3-1 pt 
N/A
-- 
La Troienne & family 1x within 5 gen
dam side in a pp
Rombauer--3rd
Essential Q. 2    the winner (Strong Angle with 2)
Hot Rod Charlie-2nd
Known Agenda-4th
Overtook 2   needs a trainer
Rock Your World
--   
bms family 1x--positive in a passing position
Rock Your World
Rombauer  3rd
Essential Qu  1st
Known Agenda  4th
Overtook
---- 
trainers-past winners--no neutral angle
Bourbonic, Known Agenda,Overtook
-------
jockeys-winners : new jock winner, these 5 are jealous with that perf. and ped.
Rosario-Rock Your World
Mike Smith-Rebels Romance
John Velazquez- Rombauer
Irad Ortiz-  Known Agenda
Manny Franco- Overtook
--
here is where it gets tricky for belmont winners at the time they were  3 yr olds
some have CMP stamina numbers lower than 12, like Tapwrit, Creator.
NONE
----
In reply toRe: msg 170
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

you still need to carry speed a distance of ground and having some speed helps most years to get 12 furlongs

or be a grinder like drosselmeyer. am pharoah is a freak with the B at 8 and the P at 2 off set with a 12/12 s/s

but his s/s index at 1.35 and help from his S number of 10.(Am. Pharoah incomplete Sire PON BMS is Argentina)

Not a stand alone angle.

Hot Rod Charlie    B 10,  P 3-  2nd outran his pedigree and was in great shape 
Rock Your World   B  3,   P  9  Incomplete some Argentina Pedigree
------
-
-
In reply toRe: msg 171
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

top  (CMP)conduit Mare Profiles furlong distance- pt  scored from the 16 horses in the
4th generation Sire and Mares Conduits .. Surprising front Runner Rock Your World is bred to go the
furthest distance 15.4 furlongs, Rombauer is next 14.16 furlongs. Known Agenda 13.40 furlongs.
--
TOP