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Triple Crown Series   Triple Crown

Started 4/18/21 by smartyslew; 26059 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/21

Thanks, I'll correct it !

In reply toRe: msg 164
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/21

RAN BM Sire Line:1 negative pt       neutral
Bourbonic, Essential Quality, France Go
 Rock your World
--- 
dosage points
2008--DaTara--12-----4-2-5-0-1
2005-Afleet Alex-14--5-0-9-0-0
1966-Amberoid--14---1-3-6-0-4
1959-Sword Dancer-10--2-0-2-5-1
1950-Middleground-12--6-0-4-0-2
1944-Bounding Home-10--2-2-0-5-1
1943-Count Fleet(TC)--4--0-2-1-1-0
---------
1 negative pt   the winner was good
,Hot Rod C 10,
Rombauer 10 Incomplete, some Argentina pedigree
--
 
belmont winners
...[Message truncated]
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In reply toRe: msg 167
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/21

Afleet Alex,Sarava,Thunder Gulch ,ruler on ice
these are the only 4   0-0 Belmont winners without a
stamina chef in 5 generations. In fact they are the only 3
without a stamina chef going back thru 1940. 3 others
Jazil(RF),Point Given,Hansel going back thru 1970, have only one
stamina chef in 5 generations.those 3 and Touch Gold,Danzig Connection
that don't have a stamina chef on the Sire side.thats 8 winners
without a stamina chef on the sire side.add ruler on ice to this,union rags
-- 
0-0 stamina contender without a stam chef in 5 gen.1negative pt--EQ is good
Bourbonic, Hot Rod Charlie,
- 
only one stamina chef- 1negative pt  winner is good
Brooklyn Strong, Overtook, Rombauer,
- 
no stam chef-sire side- 1 negative  winner is good
Bourbonic,Hot Rod Charlie,
- 
stam chef 4 gen------------------- 1 positive pt   
Brooklyn Strong, Essential Quality-1st, Known Agenda,
Rebels Romance, Rock Your World
 -
dominate  classic pts -1 positive pt 
None, I mean nobody
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 only 8 winners have a cmp stamina 1.07 or higher, highest 1.17
Hot Rod Charlie 1.31 -2nd winner good
--
Horse cmp s/s more speed pts than stam-1 negative pt
 0
------------------- 
Grand Sires Dams more speed than stam:1 negative pt
-
 Essential Q good
Hot Rod Charlie-2nd
--
  the X passing position on the dam side- 1 pt 
-All
-
contenders with conduit belmont winners-1pt
--
Essential Quality 1x La troienne; 2 Bimelich(son) Easy Goer !st
(This is 3rd Belmont Winner for Conduit La Troienne 1x (BPT)
11th TC winner for Her 4 derby, 4 preakness .3 Belmont) Greatest of all time
move over Doxa..   :)
...[Message truncated]
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In reply toRe: msg 168
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/21

-
ran sire line with la troienne in a passing position  Winner not here
Known Agenda,  Overtook, Rebels Romance
Rock Your World, Rombauer, 
no la troienne in a passing position-  winner is good
,France Go De Ina
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 generation black type winners:23
Essential Q. 31 
reine 5 gen 10:1 pt
-
BPT conduits in 5 gen
Essential Q 13---1st
--
big 4 large heart in a pp= 1 pt
 all
--
6sx 6d : big 4 large heart or closer=1 pt:
0
big 4 lh in a pp  6th generation or closer:1 pt
Overtook- Prince   otm
--
2 daughters or more of big red on each side in 5 generations
Essential Qualty  3          winner
-
10 gen dc mares Dam Side in a PP-20= 1 pt
--
Overtook      49
Essential Q. 38----1st
Known Agenda  29--4th
Rombauer     21---3rd
 Bourbonic 20---5th
Hot Rod Charlie 20--2nd
-
5 gen Double copy Large Heart  Mares
Overtook 8   0tm
Knownj Agenda 4--4th
Essential Qu.  3   1st in race
--
In reply toRe: msg 169
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/21

byerley and godolphan 5 gen. line 22-32-1 positive pt
Rock Your World  10
Essential Quality 7       winner
Overtook   7
France go  3
Known Agenda 6
Rebels Romance 4
Rombauer  5
-- 
n/p and byerley, godolphan lines-top 3-1 pt 
N/A
-- 
La Troienne & family 1x within 5 gen
dam side in a pp
Rombauer--3rd
Essential Q. 2    the winner (Strong Angle with 2)
Hot Rod Charlie-2nd
Known Agenda-4th
Overtook 2   needs a trainer
Rock Your World
--   
bms family 1x--positive in a passing position
Rock Your World
Rombauer  3rd
Essential Qu  1st
Known Agenda  4th
Overtook
---- 
trainers-past winners--no neutral angle
Bourbonic, Known Agenda,Overtook
-------
jockeys-winners : new jock winner, these 5 are jealous with that perf. and ped.
Rosario-Rock Your World
Mike Smith-Rebels Romance
John Velazquez- Rombauer
Irad Ortiz-  Known Agenda
Manny Franco- Overtook
--
here is where it gets tricky for belmont winners at the time they were  3 yr olds
some have CMP stamina numbers lower than 12, like Tapwrit, Creator.
NONE
----
In reply toRe: msg 170
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/21

you still need to carry speed a distance of ground and having some speed helps most years to get 12 furlongs

or be a grinder like drosselmeyer. am pharoah is a freak with the B at 8 and the P at 2 off set with a 12/12 s/s

but his s/s index at 1.35 and help from his S number of 10.(Am. Pharoah incomplete Sire PON BMS is Argentina)

Not a stand alone angle.

Hot Rod Charlie    B 10,  P 3-  2nd outran his pedigree and was in great shape 
Rock Your World   B  3,   P  9  Incomplete some Argentina Pedigree
------
-
-
In reply toRe: msg 171
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/21

top  (CMP)conduit Mare Profiles furlong distance- pt  scored from the 16 horses in the
4th generation Sire and Mares Conduits .. Surprising front Runner Rock Your World is bred to go the
furthest distance 15.4 furlongs, Rombauer is next 14.16 furlongs. Known Agenda 13.40 furlongs.
--
In reply toRe: msg 172
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/21

Belmont Historical performance numbers leader board
Without my 1/8 pole Chart
1st 4 in order ,cold superfecta.
--
1st  Essential Quality           --
2nd  Hot Rod Charlie           -1 behind 
3rd  Rombauer                   -2
4th  Known Agenda            -6
-------
5th  Overtook                    -9
6th  Rock y. World             -11
7th  Bourbonic                  -12 behind first
8th  France Go                   N/A
In reply toRe: msg 173
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/4/21

  ↵

Belmont Contenders pedigree score.

The lowest knocks from historical guidelines for 12f win.

---

Essential Quality   7   1st   best angles first in Belmont

Overtook             11

Rock Your World   11

Known Agenda     11

Rombauer            16

Bourbonic            22

France Go De Ina  22

Hot Rod Charlie    26   8th  2nd place, scored 2nd in performnce angles

In reply toRe: msg 174
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/4/21

2021 Belmont contenders historical performance and pedigree  totals
low score has the best number and least knocks and strikes.
1st is the best score to win the belmont and all scores is for the Win only .
-
 This combined score is used to see who has the best chance to get 12 furlongs
combining Performance and Pedigree Historical  scoring to project the 12f winner.
--
1st Essential Quality       10  yup the winner
2nd Known Agenda         20
3rd Rombauer                21
4th Overtook                 23
5th Rock Your World       25
6th Hot Rod Charlie        30
7th Bourbonic                 37
8th France Go De Ina      41
-----
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