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Triple Crown Series   Triple Crown

Started 4/18/21 by smartyslew; 26029 views.
In reply toRe: msg 175

From: smartyslew


I still like Essential Quality to Win This race , he is the last one left from the 4 I liked at the Start of the Year. I can't bet him at the odds I think he will go off at. I will use him in my exotics. He is my pick

and I don't think anyone can beat him and when I feel this strong  about a horse I use in Picks,

Doubles,  and of course Exactas, tri's, Supers, etc. Sometimes in 8 horse fields when I 

Strongly like a horse I'll wheel him in a tri .. him with all/with all . It depends on how many horses

are single digits in the field and the final odds and right now 5 are single digits and 2-1

on EQ is to low. $1 cost is all/ with 7 x6 =$42 per $1 unit . I might do a longshot play

with Overtook ,he could be ready to wake up. If I make money playing other races

I might use that for the Longshot play.


From: Oldbettowin


It doesn’t bother you that an api-ran has never won the Belmont?  I think if I bet it at all it’s just going to be another $20 on Rombauer lol.  And even then probably only if he goes off at least 4-1 or so.


From: smartyslew


Not at all I like this better Whats in the 5 generations
I use before The Sire and Bms Nicks its what is fed from the Engine room

the 6th and 7th Generation In this case all of the sires and Mares from family

branches 13c and family 2f  9 of one and 7 of the other within the 5 generations

8 from family 1x is a bonus  and seven (7) foundation of family 8 and 5 meets the

Standards I use. Also I like at least 2 daughters Of big red in the window of time

today, but there is 3 daughters of big red all in the 4th generations Dams of Sires all in the 3rd

Generation API, Gone West, Storm Cat all 3 from different Sire Lines, 2 on the dam side one on the Sire line, one in the Bms line, Storm Cat bred to the 3rd  Dam 1x who also traces  to Princequillo and LaTroienne.

for me this trumps  Sire/Bms nicks. when the occasion comes up.

Essential Quality  Tapit/ Mr P 1x(8)3o,13c(9) 7 2f,              (7)



Wasn't confident on 2nd/3rd, so made my third largest win bet ever on EQ. loved 9/5 as they loaded, disappointed in 6/5. Trakus data supported the tri, but I tried to get creative with the 8 in all spots.


From: smartyslew


The odds were all wrong for my strategy, see my message 173 for performance numbers

My pedigree angles stopped me from using those top 4 , Hot rod Charlie was fit like the winner

He was last on my ped score and I kept looking at 12f , and thought it was to far for Itm

But the 4 fittest came in. I Didn't bet EQ it was so stupid. I passed. Congrats on your win !


From: Wintertrian


Essential Quality showed the field what happens when you have a superior quality 12F horse on the track.  

I bet he'd do fine on the grass?  They should send him over to some classy races on the lawn over the pond.    


From: princeofdoc


I can never understand the big drop in odds AFTER the race goes.....seems like with everything computerized, prices should be immediate.

I found a bet on line Thursday that had EQ at 2.60, so I made my bet then, quite happily.....

The 7.50-1 on the exacta was rather low, but the 21-1 on the tri was better....and the 60-1 on the super was very good, all things considered


From: Plus2lbs


Ended on a High Note..for sure..

But is it over...

Who won the Derby?..

In reply toRe: msg 80

From: smartyslew


Mr P / Nor Dancer

That was easy..

In reply toRe: msg 184

From: smartyslew


Starting with message 121 in this thread I scored the angles that worked and the ones that didn't

work for the Belmont stakes this year, for those interested in both performance angles and pedigree

scoring from placements in a pedigree that work for the belmont.