This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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Nice stats, smartyslew!
Question: How does one estimate closely late pace figures for a horse like RYW when he was geared down.
Is there a method by which to do that?
Because obviously I can't go with what my Brisnet PPs say.
I use my eyeballs and look for a replay to refresh my memory if I haven't noted it ,in this case I did note it i
even tho I'll never forget this ride. I noted also in his gallop out he was 20 lengths ahead of anybody else, so many
little things for ones DD. I save some dd for myself, any data I put out, It's nice to get feed back,
you said "Because obviously I can't go with what my Brisnet PPs say. "
I can't either, I do dd from the Race chart for the race. not from bris and note the tidbits from the chart
and then I watch the replay and look for highlighted notes from the chart and most of the time I don't
put that in public. My data is for others to look at and choose to either run with it or do more of their DD,
from it. I will do highlights from the charts on some data like bumped at start, etc after the draw with
a full field.
That's fine. Understand.
I wasn't addressing the question *directly* to you but thanks for sharing.........
I am/was wondering how other people do it. How do you come up with a figure when there is none that fits into the "publishing" mode on PPs.
It's like my comment about mud/slop. People only look at races. Horses who are stabled at tracks in barns where it rains cats n' dogs work and gallop in slop very frequently. PPs don;t tell you that. It's uber important, as is their breeding for such a task, even if they don't barn where there is a lot of rain.
I'm sorry I thought you were talking about things like late pace and geared down not on the PP's,
or similar like bumped at start, track bias, bumped at turn or 8 wide coming home,
The PP's are usually for once on the track.
I don't use the PP's at all for the Derby.....I watch all the races, make notes, go from there. PP's, for me, are for races where I don't know the horses, and am unfamiliar with their races
An example of something the PP's don't disclose.....Known Agenda's race in the Sam Davis, coming in 5th. Watch the race, see just how full of run he was. Not a surprise how well he ran next out. Not sure how I feel about his chances in the Derby, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran well
I read the race charts first, write down the tidbits, bumped wide on turn, etc watch the replays looking for them (tidbits)
Off the race chart I write down the splits and note small adjustments, the last few years I compare the Raw time
with bris ep numbers and late pace numbers , supposedly the numbers include track variants, class, g1,g2, and the
distance, wide trips, bumping, blocked etc. the fastest raw time doesn't always have the best speed number.
Thats the last prep race only. I use those numbers for my 1/8 pole chart., i do after the draw
the last few years I compare all speed figures. if you look at the late pace raw numbers
I put on here I think they noticed what you did, he has the highest late speed number in the field, 112
Since Dr Roman Retired I started using Bris numbers recaps for Early, EP, and late pace numbers against the Raw Time.
Anybody like another sight better for that ?
You are smart to use your eyes, not paper data.
princeofdoc said...Known Agenda's race in the Sam Davis, coming in 5th. Watch the race, see just how full of run he was. Not a surprise how well he ran next out. Not sure how I feel about his chances in the Derby, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran well
That's the luck part. Field of 20, most look to be mid-pack runners this year, not a whole lot of upfront speed demons left, so that means traffic. Any horse can run into a wall of horses and get blocked, even if they are the best horse in the race.
I usually stick with the "quality" speed, and trackers, and sometimes a closer to wipe up in case everyone tires in the stretch. Midpack runners give me *worries* in a field this large but will put 2 on my ticket.