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Derby Post Positions   Triple Crown

Started Apr-27 by SameSteve G; 4777 views.
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-27

Here is the result of the Derby draw.  If anyone can get past the top 4, there are prices all over the map.  Can someone explain to me why Essential is 2/1 on m/line & Highly is 10/1?  This is one of the most roughly drawn lines I can remember.  All the 30 & 50 to one shots are linemaker dart throws.

  1. Known Agenda – Todd Pletcher – Irad Ortiz, Jr. (6-1)
  2. Like The King – Wesley Ward – Drayden Van Dyke (50-1)
  3. Brooklyn Strong – Danny Velazquez – Umberto Rispoli (50-1)
  4. Keepmeinmind – Robertino Diodoro – David Cohen (blinkers off**) (50-1)
  5. Sainthood – Todd Pletcher – Corey Lanerie (50-1)
  6. O Besos – Greg Foley – Marcelino Pedroza (20-1)
  7. Mandaloun – Brad Cox – Florent Geroux (15-1)
  8. Medina Spirit – Bob Baffert – John Velazquez (15-1)
  9. Hot Rod Charlie – Doug O'Neill – Flavien Prat (8-1)
  10. Midnight Bourbon – Steve Asmussen – Mike Smith (20-1)
  11. Dynamic One – Todd Pletcher – Jose Ortiz (20-1)
  12. Helium – Mark Casse – Julien Leparoux (50-1)
  13. Hidden Stash – Vicki Oliver – Rafael Bejarano (50-1)
  14. Essential Quality – Brad Cox – Luis Saez (2-1)
  15. Rock Your World – John Sadler – Joel Rosario (5-1)
  16. King Fury – Ken McPeek – Brian Hernandez, Jr. (20-1)
  17. Highly Motivated – Chad Brown – Javier Castellano (10-1)
  18. Super Stock – Steve Asmussen – Ricardo Santana, Jr. (30-1)
  19. Soup and Sandwich – Mark Casse – Tyler Gaffalione (30-1)
  20. Bourbonic – Todd Pletcher – Kendrick Carmouche (30-1)
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-27

Must be Mike B. all over again.

4 single digit this year.

Value all over the place in a group of 16.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-27

The SA and Florida Derby winners will take money.  EQ has to be the favorite but HM sure looks like the value.

In reply toRe: msg 3
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-27

I’ve been warming up to HRC (no, not Hillary Rodham Clinton) but at 8-1 IDK.

In reply toRe: msg 4
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-27

For my ticket I hope he doesn't run first but the most *deserving* horse is Essential quality, he danced every dance and sparkled. 

IMHO Highly Motivated needed closer to the rail.  Maybe his odds reflect that. 

 

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-27

Considering that Highly made the pace in the Blue Grass, was inside in the drive & barely got beat by the consensus KD favorite while Known Agenda was taking a terrible whipping to get cracking & then drifted late.  I'd probably reverse those 2.  6/1 Highly & 10/1 Known.

2/1 on Essential seems an underlay & believe it or not, 5/1 is close to fair value IMO on Rock...I was thinking 6-1.  

Hot Rod is an underlay, again my opinion, at 8/1.

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Apr-27

Glancing at the post positions, i noticed Mandaloun and Medina Spirit seem to be in the garden spots, both @ 15/1 might be in my super.

Totally bummed about Known Agenda and the 1 hole. It'll take a miracle for him to win this.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-27

The gate has been changed out so #1 is no longer the dreaded post it once was, and after all, 8 horses have won from there. 

 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-27

SameSteve G said...

onsidering that Highly made the pace in the Blue Grass, was inside in the drive & barely got beat by the consensus KD favorite while Known Agenda was taking a terrible whipping to get cracking & then drifted late.  I'd probably reverse those 2.  6/1 Highly & 10/1 Known.

2/1 on Essential seems an underlay & believe it or not, 5/1 is close to fair value IMO on Rock...I was thinking 6-1.  

Hot Rod is an underlay, again my opinion, at 8/1.

It really depends on how much weight you give the bluegrass.  for me, it was a meh.   Paid workout for EQ 

HM still could not get past him, and nobody else did for that matter.  How or why this puts HM so high on lists is beyond me.   Keepmeinmind ran 2nd and 3rd to Essential Quality in 2 races....with a pretty good post position yet is 50-1.  .   

Agree with you about KA though.   

Both Pletcher "bookends" were not the Pletcher's I was planning on for my ticket anyway.  I like his other horses a whole lot though. Sainthood floats over the surface there, and Dynamic One enjoys running, you can see that after his work and his ears are pricked.   I guess you can say I don't go for the "flashy" horses most of the time.  

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-27

Chief, watch how Calvin Borel beat Lookin At Lucky to the sweet spot  in the 2010 Derby, right after the point where the inside rail bends & then after using some horse to achieve that position, he throttled back & found a pocket of calm a few lengths off the leaders, saving ground the entire way.

Known's best shot is if Ortiz follows that script early.  He's quick enough to establish that position.  He turns the one hole into an advantage if Irad can pull it off.

On the other hand, if he doesn't get out or if Irad allows the outside speed horses to come over before he can establish position, he will get shuffled back & shuffled back.  His chances go to slim to none if that happens, unfortunately.

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