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Derby Talk   Triple Crown

Started Apr-28 by Ticketman; 1189 views.
Ticketman

From: Ticketman

Apr-28

Noticed how similar Highly Motivated CMP is to last year's Derby Winner , Authentic

Same sire too ...Into Mischief

CMP ..Highly Motivated

Conduit Mare Profile = 2-8-9-7-3   Speed = 10   Stamina = 10   Index = 0.95   Triads = 19-24-19

CMP ..Authentic

Conduit Mare Profile = 4-7-9-7-3   Speed = 11   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.09   Triads = 20-23-19

In reply toRe: msg 1
Ticketman

From: Ticketman

Apr-28

Also few other minor things I noticed in which I usually get bashed on .... when I post it

Since 1980

Just One horse has won derby with Female Family # 9 ...that was in 2019 on a DQ ...Country House

Horses under the Female Family # 9 this year .... drum roll ....

Rock Your World 9-f

Known Agenda 9-f

Like The King 9-f

pianot

From: pianot

Apr-28

Both of these posts I find interesting. Thanks for the input.

In reply toRe: msg 3
Ticketman

From: Ticketman

Apr-28

Wow ... positive feedback .... thanks bro ....

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-28

Family 9 is a producer line, not a running family , its good to kinow things like that.

Nasrullah, Mahmoud,   dark ronald, hill prince,  royal charger, alydar, tudor minstrel, el senor

grand slam, war eagle, fair play Distorted Humor, Tom Rolfe, etc.

going back to  1980 is a slice of pie , why not 1976 , his RF with  family 23b was more important than his tff.

That family branch has won  the most derby 's and highly influence many derby winners where it isn't  the tail female family

like Country House. Even Though he won by DQ, he beat everybody else'

Also his sire has family 9f , so that's a strong influence. In a 5 generation pedigree the TFF has 6 lines

If a horse has more than 6 lines  in 5 generation that's positive. he had 11 with both his Sire and Bms and  23b-rf 

Country House MR P/Danzig  9f (11), 9f,4r, 5 23b-rf*,4 7a,4 8f,

Country and Rock Your World have the same 9f  conduit Germicide (P classification) love that for a front runner.

The Other 2's 9f conduit is Saint Astra (A BP classification) I think there style is different'

I don't know where they laugh at you at. You Need  more than one only stand alone idea to pick a derby winner.

You picqued my interest  when you said people laugh at you. good luck.

Ticketman

From: Ticketman

Apr-28

Thank you Smarty ... I'm really not the most experienced capper with pedigree breakdowns , so your input helps ...

Unsure what you mean ....., his RF ( Unsure what that is )  with  family 23b was more important than his tff (Unsure what that is ) ??

I looked at pedigree 5th Gen of RYW ... I see the 11 lines you are talking about ....

So a good gauge on front runners would be anything over 6 lines in the 5th Gen ?

Can't thank you enough ...for the help ?

I'm trying to learn ...even at age 60 ...LOL

Ticketman

From: Ticketman

Apr-28

I also noticed with Rock Your World ....in the CMP .... his Speed # 5 ?

since 1980 .. just one Derby Winner ( 1981 Pleasant Colony ) ....has Speed # 5

that's 1/41 Derby Winners

Just trying to help.... I'm not saying RYW will not be on top of my tickets

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-28

The cappers lingo for the newbies, sorry for that,

Rf = Rasmussen Factor, this explains it better than me.

  • The Rasmussen Factor (RF) occurs when a horse can trace it's genetics to a common superior matriarch through different individuals, i.e. full or half siblings, within five generations (5x5 or closer). Thus the duplicate superior matriarch is traced to the horse via different individuals from the same dam.
  • tff = tail  female family , The Dams Female family branch for Country  house for example 9f , follow all of the dams line to Vinter
  • born before 1700, on that trip you will find his conduit the first born in the 20th century, in this case Germicide  1907.
  • The 6 lines in 5 generations is for all horses , not just front  runners.
  • What site do you get your 5 generations info from.. ?
Ticketman

From: Ticketman

Apr-28

Thanks Smarty ...again ... appreciate it

using https://www.pedigreequery.com/

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-28

I have always felt that racing experience/results trump all pedigree capping by the time the TC begins....love the analysis for the preps, and certainly for the early races.

However, this year's crop is so inseparable as regards experience/results, that I think your insights surrounding pedigree should be weighted more than normal.  As long as potential, as identified through breeding, has not yet been negated by simply slow/poor racing.  I am always vexed by trainers who cannot find a reason for poor performance, like Cox with Mandaloun, saying they just want to put a line through the race.

My tosses will always be the horses who have been consistently under-performing regardless of their cost or excellence in pedigree

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