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Monday Morning Quarterbacking -- The Ice Cold Trifecta   Handicapping

Started May-3 by zowcownow; 379 views.
zowcownow

From: zowcownow

May-3

From the si.com derby pics website.

"On the flip side, the entrants who benefited the most from the draw were Bob Baffert’s Medina Spirit (15/1) who drew No. 8, Brad Cox’s Mandaloun (15/1) who drew No. 7, and Doug O’Neil’s Hot Rod Charlie (8/1) who drew post No. 9. Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie could very well duel for the opening lead which sets up perfectly for their running styles drawing in these slots."

https://www.si.com/gambling/2021/04/30/kentucky-derby-best-bets-breakdown

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-3

No takeaway from the SI observation. The man deserves an atta' boy on gate handicapping a stampede.

Again Dogs mentions the odds to win for an undefeated/5-0 Derb fav were far too high. Considering the Mattress guy PR and past experience of public one time shooters.

In future will consider more gate position for potential bumping, breaking in a tangle..and colts with better gate to get to front consistently. 

Also here are pictures of da horse.

https://amp-usatoday-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/4906737001?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=16200340360203&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fhorseracing%2F2021%2F05%2F01%2Fkentucky-derby-mattress-mack-bets-favorite-essential-quality%2F4906737001%2F

  • Edited May 3, 2021 10:28 am  by  DogsUp
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-3

It was perfect for the way the track was playing but normally the winner has some good LP figures.

In reply toRe: msg 2
ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

May-3

Well, we have a year to figure that one out Dogs unless we're applying a similar but smaller stampede in the Preakness. Early bets will be on Baffert's two colts entered at Pimlico. Speed kills!!!

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-3

I'm on full. 

zowcownow

From: zowcownow

May-4

Good point.   I was most impressed with Keep Me in Mind.  He came from the back and passed a lot of horses in the stretch to end of 7th.    50-1 in the wagering.    A horse that had come in 3rd behind Essential Quality, and Hot Rod Charlie in the BC Juvenile.  Plus won the KyJC at Churchill as a 2-year-old.   Took off his blinkers and had a blistering 46.1 workout.  His speed figures suspect but with the pace, he had a pretty bang-up race.  I played him in a lot of 1 on 1 prop bets to make a chunk of change.  Keep Me In Mind will win a major race this summer......guaranteed.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-4

zowcownow said...

I was most impressed with Keep Me in Mind. 

I agree with this.   One of the few who didn't appear to lose ground. 
 

I'm pretty familiar with Diororo since he is a staple at OP which is my local and which I follow closely.  He's more of a G3 level trainer but still has a very high % with certain jockeys riding, esp. Ramon Vazquez, Cohen and sometimes Cabrera.  But he uses all the various jockeys there.

Rank Trainer Name Starts Starters 1st 2nd 3rd Earnings Win %
1 Steven M. Asmussen 233 -- 56 34 30 $5,585,643 24% 120 -- --
2 Robertino Diodoro 146 -- 40 30 16 $1,597,300 27% 86 -- --
3 Brad H. Cox 100 -- 26 16 15 $3,229,134 26% 57 -- --

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

May-4

I can see Keepmeinmind in the final mix in the Belmont Stakes. Kind of reminds me of Ruler On Ice.

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