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More Derby reflections   Triple Crown

Started May-5 by princeofdoc; 581 views.
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

May-5

Interesting to note......6 of the Derby horses had 2 or more races with 90+ Beyers.  They filled out the super, then 6th and 10th place.  A $1 super box of the 6, and a $1 tri box....combined with a $4 exacta box would have netted nearly 12K.

The winner had the most races of 90+ (4).....sometimes betting speed ratings pays off :)

pianot

From: pianot

May-5

Excellent point!

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

May-5

Factoring in the fastest horses is never a bad strategy.  To play on that single factor is not a good strategy over the long term.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-6

You are talking dirt only right ? How about this one only strategy ?

What about the Dummy that Boxed the 4 from the LA Derby with Essential Quality and Rock Your World instead of Medina Spirit

4 of those 6 filled out the super, tri, exacta, 6 filled the first 6, if you used Medina Spirit instead of Rock Your World.

La Derby was the Key for the Exotics with Essential Quality and the speed from the Santa Anita Derby if you used the right horse.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-6

Right on. LOUIE Derby mile and three sixteenths...an extra 1/16 of a furlong (vs all the 9 panel Derb point races) and a gallop out is a great tune up for Derb dis. 

Formally ran at mile 1/18.

At  40/1 Commanding Curve  ran 2nd to Calf. Chrome in his Derby. Came out of the clouds.

CC ran third in his LOUSIANA Derby and the 2 ahead of him were also in the Chrome Derby.

  • Edited May 6, 2021 5:24 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 5
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-6

Watch all the preps in that circuit and add the head case Proxy to the mix before Druggo sent  Hot Rod Charlie (good Move)

Eye ball to Eye ball group of preps , They were all sound and Battle tested.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

May-6

LMAOROF

Given 'nick names 

  • Edited May 6, 2021 7:03 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 7
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-7

Medina Spirit really is a beautiful horse, you don't notice it at first because he's not "flashy".  This is a very nice photo of him here:
https://www.instagram.com/p/COX_mpThOjv/

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

May-7

I do look at speed figures, and I am also a bit of an old school guy relative to preparation practices. We make much of the changes in breeding, but I think the changes in preparation has also contributed to the "slowing" of Derby horses. Horses need to be fit to take on the challenge of 10f, especially if they are not particularly bred for it.

The 1,2,5, and 6 finishers had 3 preps. I still believe that to be optimal. I believe the 3rd and 4th finishers to have been the best two horses in the Derby, and could have benefitted from a third prep. I think HRC also benefitted from the 9.5f La. Derby, while EQ benefitted from a tough Bluegrass race. The 2,3,5, and 6 finishers came out of the La. Derby, which is the longest prep. I think horses need to be tested in their sophomore year, in preparation for the Derby. Even though horses today don't often wheel back after just two weeks, we see that Derby winners succeed quite often in the Preakness, after racing at the longest distance of their young careers, and coming back after two weeks. I think a benefit to their stamina is more likely than them being spent.

Now, as it pertains to the "new shooters", I still like Crowded Trade; and it's not just my MTR bias. He has now had three races this year, all on what I believe to be a very tiring track. He stretched out to a mile in the Gotham after a 6f debut sprint, and hung a bit in the stretch. I thought that was understandable, it being only his second race, yet his Bris number jumped considerably. Then came the Wood, his first start around two turns, and I believe the track and the added distance got him. Again we forget that he skipped the allowance ranks to race in a graded race, and lost by a nose in the Gotham. A small step backwards was quite forgivable in the Wood. Everyone assumes that distance is his issue, perhaps because of his sire. I don't think so. With a seven week gap from his Wood to the Preakness, he should be sufficiently freshened, and able to fire his best shot. His stamina should be improved after those three Aqueduct races, so I believe he will finally be able to finish off the leaders this time around. I expect at least 10-1 odds, so I may put as much as $50 to win on him come next Saturday! Win one for the old man, Crowded Trade! I mean MTR, not Raesfan! :-) 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-7

track variant last prep before the derby with the winners number
-
Florida Derby -Ave          12 Known Agenda    10 2 faster than Variant
-
Jr steaks turfway AW   5  (thats fast) like the king -2 slower
-
Wood Memorial       24 slow     Bourbonic 25    1 slower than Variant
-
Louisiana Derby      2        very fast new track record, Hot Rod Charlie 107 + 9
-
Santa Anita            11 ave.   Rock Your World  11 ran the variant
-
Tampa Bay Derby    3 fast  Helium 8,  5 slower than variant
-
Blue Grass  fast        9    Essential Quality  3    +6 faster 
-
Arkansas Derby    15 slow     Super Stock 15    -
-
Louisiana  Derby  fastest track of the preps with a good field
(First 3 +9,+7,+7    Made Mandaloun look bad  -5,  3  slower than variant
-
Tampa fast track 3   
Blue Grass was fast  9 (91)  Aw track was fast
-
Santa Anita Derby  11 variant(89)  That's not a fast Track  for S A
I don't know if they had a Bias that day.
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