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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 150336 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-8

This cracks me up  !

1 Rich Strike $1,932,500
2 Life Is Good $1,755,000
3 Epicenter $1,480,000
4 Secret Oath $1,130,250
5 Zandon $913,500
6 Olympiad $786,800
7 Cyberknife $785,000
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RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

May-8

Well every horse is “inexperienced” when it comes to that particular experience. I get it, it’s worse for a horse with two lifetime starts. However, I’ve seen a lot of horses freak out on those kinds of days. A lot of it comes down to temperament. Remember Quality Road at BC?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-8

A few have asked me How this did in the Derby ! Lasix free

First 6 were Lasix free racing,, 8th,,9th, 

Lasix users were  Tawny Port 7th, Zozos 10th,Taibia 12th, Happy Jack 14th, Charge It 17th,
Cyberknife 18th Place, last 2 Wins were on Lasix,, 19th Pioneer Of Medina. Check out
who the Trainers are. 
-----------------

edit to add Rich Strike  First and Classic Causeway  11th place, Rattle N Roll
I think 13 entrants L free
Lasix Free Contenders. Never used Lasix in any race :
_____
IMO: They Should change the Rules to No Lasix in any race.
Stop these Trainers from racing in Lasix every other race when not
a sanctioned race. We Need Transparency for cappers. One might think
they are masking something and we just don't know.
Somebody Should ask Pletcher and Cox why do they do that
with Some of their crop and not others.
I don't like it when a Horse I really like races in a un sanction  race on lasix
I wonder Why? Is He a bleeder or is something else is going on.
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 103/ 93 (103
-
Rich Strike   First Place
Epicenter 21a IP 164  Louis Derby  9 3/16   Rosario  L free    2nd Place 
23.67 47.65 11.99  36.16 54.38   102 by   87 90/106 (101
23.67 23.98 24.34 24.17 (3/16 18.22) Last Q 24.31
Zandon 4d  S       114  BG 9f      Prat       Lfree    3rd Place
24.87 49.30  13.75  38.06 50.35   98 by
24.87 24.43  24.45  24.31 12.29 lastQ  24.45  
-
White Abarrio 9e S  112 flor D. 9f, fast in middle  Gaffiolone   L free
24.18 47.66 10.99* 36.55 50.64   96 by    96 110/77 (96
24.18 23.48 23.33 25.56 14.09 Last Q 26.84
---
Mo Donegal 3g  S   112  Wood  9f  I Ortiz     L free  5th
25.07 48.76 12.50 36.03 47.96    96 by
25.07 23.69 23.74 23.53 11.93  Last Q 23.67
--
Tiz The Bomb 3L BP 110  Jeff Ruby AW 9f  Hernandez  L free   9th
23.96 47.78 11.58 35.89 48.60   94 by   86 93/105 (101
23.96 23.82 23.80 24.31 12.71 Last Q 24.87
--
Simplification 16g Is  74   Flor Derby  9f J Ortiz    L free    4th place
23.77 47.25 10.69 36.56 51.09   92 by  100 113/70 (93
23.77 23.48 23.44 25.87 14.53 Last Q 27.47
-
Smile Happy 6d S   70  B
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PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

May-8

I am not sure what the insinuation on the lasix is.  I would guess some are inferring running on Lasix is affecting them later?  I would interpret that as more those horse were not running well enough to run in races where lasix is banned and used lasix in lesser races where it is allowed.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-9

13 raced without Lasix. 7 used lasix in some races, Why did those 7 trainers use Lasix, are they bleeders ?

You said :

I would interpret that as more those horse were not running well enough to run in races where lasix is banned and used lasix in lesser races where it is allowed.

I suggest what you said is one might think it helps their performance in the lesser races and I suggest maybe they are masking something to give them a boost for their next race a lasix free race with time wears off for detection. I can't sit here and say they are cheating, It makes me wonder maybe they are and why does Cyberknife run with lasix every other race up tp certain race before he finally runs good  in a sanctioned race and runs so crappy in the big dance without lasix. It bothers me when Pletcher gets many of the well bred horses
I really like and races them with Lasix their first  2 races or first race, why not lasix free, Why.

I think  Mo Donegal may have been his only Horse that raced without Lasix, I ask why is that , I don't get it.

Maybe the 13 without Lasix  were up against it and the first 6 finishers from that group were the best horses 

and didn't need help from a vet. We really do not know, But Maybe.......

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

May-9

Like Steve, I couldn't have picked Rich Strike to win, regardless of time spent handicapping.  I didn't hear a single analyst give him a chance, and no one on this forum either.  I did predict a fast pace, and thought a dead closer could win, and that's why I included Mo in all my tickets.  I really think the jock made the difference, bravely took the rail, and timed it perfectly.  Also, the track looked a little wet right before the race, and perhaps the rail was the best place to be?

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

May-9

I think this race proved that the new gate is fair.

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

May-9

My understanding of the Lasix rule is that they were not allowed to use it as 2yo.  At 3 they are not allowed to use it in stakes races.  I very well could wrong about that.  I see Cyberknife ran on Lasix  Dec 26 2021, so obviously it is not about not using at 2.  That race was in LA, so maybe that states rules are different.  His alternating races were MSW at FG, G3 stakes (lasix not allowed), OC50k (lasix allowed), G1 stakes (lasix not allowed)

On TAPs horses, Mo ran in all stakes at 3 so he could not use lasix at 3.  PoM ran in NJ in his first MSW with Lasix, so perhaps that state is different?  His first race at 3 was an OC50 (lasix allowed) then stakes where lasix was not allowed.  Charge 1st 2 races were msw at 3, lasiz was allowed.  Then G1 race lasix not allowed. 

Look at what trainers did when lasix was allowed everywhere.  When they did not run well in a stakes, they would drop down in an ALW or OC, then if they did well, go back to a stakes, same pattern we see this year, except lasix rules have changed.  A lot of trainers are going to use lasix whenever they can.    I'm seeing trainers doing the same thing they have always done and having to follow local lasix rules.  You're seeing them running in those races to mask something.  If so, then why is the pattern the same pattern pre lasix rules?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-9

I'm against using Lasix because its a Masking agent and its use down grades The crop imo being passed on to the Progeny

does not help the crop. I don't know all of the rules for Lasix either. I would like to see its use Banned

and I know when its used its legal for that race. Why go half way, ban it  for all 2 and 3 yr olds , is the next step

in the process of getting rid of it. There are stories that many use lasix in their works and we need to change that to.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-9

How message 1012 did

the 1/8 pole chart was terrible this year, I think because of the Hot pace.
by far the worst one I ever did. The Winner is usually in the first 7. this year 19th.
--

1/8 pole chart 2022 derby 10f time based from 1/8 pole  fast track only
------
1 Epicenter         2.00.47  -2nd       winning time 2.02.61
2 White Abarrio   2.00.87
3 Messier            2.00.92
4 Taiba               2.01.06
5 Zozos              2.01.42
6 Crown Pride     2.01.48
7 Tiz The Bomb   2.01.50
8 Charge It         2.01.50
9 PioneerOfMED. 2.01.50
10 Mo Donegal    2.01.63  5th
11 Simplification  2.01.82   4th
12 Zandon          2.02. 51  3rd
13 Smile Happy   2.02.60
14 ClassicCause   2.03.10
15 Cyber Knife     2.03.42
16 Tawny Port      2.03.58
17 Barber Road    2.03.78
18 Happy Jack     2.03.85
19 Rich Strike      2.03.95  1st
20 Summer Is Tomorrow  N/a
--
   

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