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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 126850 views.
pianot

From: pianot

May-18

I think Epi might break this pattern.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-19

Thanks  I know Empire Maker and Tiz the Law skipped the Preakness and both finished 2nd in the derby.

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

I just love We The People.  

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

I think so too.  Absolutely.

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

I'm liking Skippy more and more!    sunglasses    And Secret Oath of course.  

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

Wow, smarty.  Your data is so fabulous.  Thank you for the food for thought!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-19

thank you, You are Welcome, and good luck !

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-19

4 Northern Dancer, 5  Mr P entrants
1st & 4th Mr P, 2nd &3rd Nor Dancer
-
Nor Dancer Sire line 
Simplification, Creative Minister, Happy Jack,
Epicenter
----
Mr P, Nor Dan, Seattle Slew at least one in the Sire or Bms position
2 of these 3 is   better .
----
Di 4.00 and up:
Secret Oath 8.60  24 dosage pts  neutral
-
Di 2.00-2.99:
Fenwick 2.50., Happy Jack 2.38  positive
-----
cd points over 1.00: 
none
--
Bris improve  numbers  Positive
-
Early Voting 86  91  111 last 3 races
Skippylongstocking 77  85  94 107
-----
(close) Epicenter 90  93 98 101 101
--
Equibase Improving Numbers or not backwards  positive
-
Skippylongstocking 93-96-101
Creative Minister 84-88-108
Early Voting 79-81-102
Armagnac  60-83-92
Epicenter 79-95-97-97-97-97-105
-
Beyer improving Numbers positive
-
Creative Minister 76-82-93, Early Voting 76-87-96
Armagnac 55-83-93
Skippylongstocking 79-88-91
-
Variant equaled or better  positive
-
Creative Minister last race 94 +2  92 beyer
Secret Oath missed last 2 races  94 beyer last
Early Voting last 0 variant +8      96 beyer
Skippylongstocking 104 zero variant  91 beyer
89 +3     88 beyer
Epicenter Last Derby 89  -3  100 beyer,
104+5   , beyer 102
101 +3  98 beyer
Equaled or beat Variant next 3 races    beyer 88-87-80
-
Cmp s/s index 1.00 or less positive
all but Creative Minister
---.
a high cmp stamina number of 1.06 or higher must have
20 dosage points.   negative
Creative Minister 1.53 , 16 points
--
the ones below 1.00: 20 dosage pts or more positive.
-
Fenwick  28 pts, Happy Jack 22 Pts
-
Graded Stks  winners  positve
-Simplification 4 gr races 1 g2 win
Secret Oath 4 gr races, g1 win ,g3 win
Early Voting 2 gr races g1 2nd,g3 win
Epicenter 4 gr races 2 g2 winsg1 2nd, g3 2nd
--
No graded stakes races  negative
Creative Minister
-
reine 5 gen & tff 10  positive
Creative Minister 12, Happy Jack 17,
Fenwick 13, Secret Oath 10
Early
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-21

Preakness Stakes
--

pedigree and historical guidelines on the track scoring
-
1 Early Voting     14
2 Epicenter        13
3 Skippylongstocking  12
4 Secret Oath    11
5 Armagnac , Creative Minister 10
_______
Performance on the track scoring very close
-----
1st  Epicenter
2nd Early Voting, Creative Minister
3rd Simplification, Secret Oath, Skippy
-
 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-22

How Message 1148 did in the Preakness
Performance on The Track did the best
easily The Tri in 1st 3, and the super with the next line.
I had a very Good Preakness and the BES / Preakness I had 9 with all.

Did this help anybody ? Let me know.-

pedigree and historical guidelines on the track scoring
-
1 Early Voting     14-1st
2 Epicenter        13-2nd
3 Skippylongstocking  12
4 Secret Oath    11-4th
5 Armagnac , Creative Minister 10- 3rd
_______
Performance on the track scoring very close
-----
1st  Epicenter 2nd
2nd Early Voting-1st, Creative Minister-3rd
3rd Simplification, Secret Oath- 4th, Skippy

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