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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 129908 views.
GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

I think so too.  Absolutely.

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

I'm liking Skippy more and more!    sunglasses    And Secret Oath of course.  

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

Wow, smarty.  Your data is so fabulous.  Thank you for the food for thought!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-19

thank you, You are Welcome, and good luck !

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-19

4 Northern Dancer, 5  Mr P entrants
1st & 4th Mr P, 2nd &3rd Nor Dancer
-
Nor Dancer Sire line 
Simplification, Creative Minister, Happy Jack,
Epicenter
----
Mr P, Nor Dan, Seattle Slew at least one in the Sire or Bms position
2 of these 3 is   better .
----
Di 4.00 and up:
Secret Oath 8.60  24 dosage pts  neutral
-
Di 2.00-2.99:
Fenwick 2.50., Happy Jack 2.38  positive
-----
cd points over 1.00: 
none
--
Bris improve  numbers  Positive
-
Early Voting 86  91  111 last 3 races
Skippylongstocking 77  85  94 107
-----
(close) Epicenter 90  93 98 101 101
--
Equibase Improving Numbers or not backwards  positive
-
Skippylongstocking 93-96-101
Creative Minister 84-88-108
Early Voting 79-81-102
Armagnac  60-83-92
Epicenter 79-95-97-97-97-97-105
-
Beyer improving Numbers positive
-
Creative Minister 76-82-93, Early Voting 76-87-96
Armagnac 55-83-93
Skippylongstocking 79-88-91
-
Variant equaled or better  positive
-
Creative Minister last race 94 +2  92 beyer
Secret Oath missed last 2 races  94 beyer last
Early Voting last 0 variant +8      96 beyer
Skippylongstocking 104 zero variant  91 beyer
89 +3     88 beyer
Epicenter Last Derby 89  -3  100 beyer,
104+5   , beyer 102
101 +3  98 beyer
Equaled or beat Variant next 3 races    beyer 88-87-80
-
Cmp s/s index 1.00 or less positive
all but Creative Minister
---.
a high cmp stamina number of 1.06 or higher must have
20 dosage points.   negative
Creative Minister 1.53 , 16 points
--
the ones below 1.00: 20 dosage pts or more positive.
-
Fenwick  28 pts, Happy Jack 22 Pts
-
Graded Stks  winners  positve
-Simplification 4 gr races 1 g2 win
Secret Oath 4 gr races, g1 win ,g3 win
Early Voting 2 gr races g1 2nd,g3 win
Epicenter 4 gr races 2 g2 winsg1 2nd, g3 2nd
--
No graded stakes races  negative
Creative Minister
-
reine 5 gen & tff 10  positive
Creative Minister 12, Happy Jack 17,
Fenwick 13, Secret Oath 10
Early
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-21

Preakness Stakes
--

pedigree and historical guidelines on the track scoring
-
1 Early Voting     14
2 Epicenter        13
3 Skippylongstocking  12
4 Secret Oath    11
5 Armagnac , Creative Minister 10
_______
Performance on the track scoring very close
-----
1st  Epicenter
2nd Early Voting, Creative Minister
3rd Simplification, Secret Oath, Skippy
-
 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-22

How Message 1148 did in the Preakness
Performance on The Track did the best
easily The Tri in 1st 3, and the super with the next line.
I had a very Good Preakness and the BES / Preakness I had 9 with all.

Did this help anybody ? Let me know.-

pedigree and historical guidelines on the track scoring
-
1 Early Voting     14-1st
2 Epicenter        13-2nd
3 Skippylongstocking  12
4 Secret Oath    11-4th
5 Armagnac , Creative Minister 10- 3rd
_______
Performance on the track scoring very close
-----
1st  Epicenter 2nd
2nd Early Voting-1st, Creative Minister-3rd
3rd Simplification, Secret Oath- 4th, Skippy

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-23

Preakness winner Early Voting 9b P/N :  Mr P/ Tiznow

Gun Runner/ Tiznow : Sire and Bms both improved racing as they got older and this might suggest Early Voting's

best is yet to come. However on a closer look at his pedigree one could say he's a Storm Cat, Nor Dancer and

Princequillo influence. Storm Cat is on each side of the pedigree 4sx3d 18.75% blood 3x4 influence and Remember

Secretariat is His BM sire with the Xfactor Lh from Princequillo. Also Early Voting has Silken Doll 3rd Dam another source

Of Princequillo  and WarAdmiral Thru Chieftain/ Buckpasser Daughter Silken Doll bred to Storm Cat, the 2nd Dams Sire.
The Chart Below Shows a Strong Nearctic Family Blood Line Storm Cat, Nor Dancer, Lyphard, Nearctic with Chieftain on
both sides with The Princequillo Influence.

I'm Showing This because  The Sire/Bms Line alone doesn't tell you who The Mares are and their influence isn't shown
in the Mr P/ Tiznow P/NP  in this case Tiznow Who's Non Phalaris line is Godolphin ..
Who does Early Voting remind you of Gun Runner or Tiznow ? 

EARLY VOTING C, 2019 DP = 0-0-4-0-0 (4) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.00

Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
STORM CAT 4S x 3d 2
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-23

what worked in the Preakness on message 1147
-- 
The Winner Early Voting has a Mrp Sire Line thru his Son Fappiano a strong linefor almost any line in This case a

Non Phalaris line Tiznow BMS, Thru the flow of excellence to Man O War's Sire Fair Copy a Godolphin line Sire.

next Contenders  with Improving speed numbers looked pretty good.

Bris improving Numbers 3 races or more. only 3 listed
-- 
Early Voting 86- 91- 111  WON
Skippy  OTM
Epicenter 90-93-98-101-101 -2nd
-

Equibase Improving Numbers- 5 Qualfiers 
Early Voting & Creative Minister With 20 point+ Jump in the numbers 1st &3rd
-
Early Voting 79-81-*102  First
Epicenter  79-95-97-97-97-97 -105 2ND
Creative Minister 84-88-*108 3RD     *20 pt jump in last
Skippy and Armagnac OTM
---
Beyer Improving Numbers
-
Early Voting 76-87-96 WON
Creative Minister 76-82-93  3rd
Armagnac, Skippy OTM
__

Variant Equaled or better in a race. (Shows they belong imo)
--
Early Voting  in last  0 variant (100) +8 over track distance Variant  WON 96 Beyer
Creative Minister  94 +2   92 Beyer 3rd
Skippy  otm
Epicenter Missed in the Derby 89 -3 from Variant, Met variant in 5 
previous races
----

CMP s/s index 1.00 or less positive
-

all But Creative Minister
-
High Cmp stamina Number 1.06 or Higher negative

Creative Minister 1.53 NEGATIVE for the win
-
1.00 below with 20 dosaqge points  positive angle
-
Fenwick , Happy Hack OTM
-
Graded Stakes Winners
-Secret Oath g1 win, g2 win --  4th
Early Voting  g3 win   WON
Epicenter  2 g2 wins 2nd
Simplification 1 g2 win OTM
_
No graded stakes Races -negative for the Win
Creative Minister
-
Reine mares 5 Generatio and TFF total  10 or more
-
Early Voter 16  WON, Creative Minister 12, 3rd,Epicenter 11, 2nd
Secret Oath 10, 4th, (Happy Jack, Fenwick, Armagnac -OTM)
--
Stamina Chef within 4 Generations
-
 Epicenter 2,  & 4 stam Chefs on Dam Side
Happy Jack, Armagnac both OTM
--
No Stam Chefs within 5 generations Negative
Skippy only one
-
Large Heart Mares And Sires in 5 Gen. in a passing Position
_
Early Voting 3, won, Secret Oath 5, 4th, Creative Minister 1, 3rd
4 otm- Fenwick 1,Happy Jack 4,Armagnac 5,Skippy 1
-
Big 4 Large Heart in a PP 6x6 or closer -positive
-
Secret Oath Princequillo 4th generation -4th place.
OTm Happy Jack,  Skippy

!0 + female family Positions within 5 generation did not work out

Missed The Top 3.
--


 


 

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-23

Who does Early Voting remind you of Gun Runner or Tiznow ?

Neither one…Storm Cat.

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