This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
Latest Jun-27 by SameSteve G
Latest Jun-26 by SameSteve G
Latest Jun-25 by smartyslew
Latest Jun-25 by Wintertrian
Latest Jun-23 by pianot
Latest Jun-21 by RAESFAN
Latest Jun-19 by Wintertrian
Latest Jun-19 by Wintertrian
Latest Jun-18 by SameSteve G
Latest Jun-15 by princeofdoc
Latest Jun-12 by princeofdoc
Latest Jun-11 by smartyslew
Latest Jun-11 by princeofdoc
Latest Jun-10 by sovereign1
Latest Jun-6 by SameSteve G
Latest Jun-6 by Wintertrian
Latest Jun-5 by Wintertrian
Latest Jun-5 by SameSteve G
Latest Jun-2 by Wintertrian
Latest May-30 by Wintertrian
How Message 1148 did in the Preakness
Performance on The Track did the best
easily The Tri in 1st 3, and the super with the next line.
I had a very Good Preakness and the BES / Preakness I had 9 with all.
Did this help anybody ? Let me know.-
Preakness winner Early Voting 9b P/N : Mr P/ Tiznow
Gun Runner/ Tiznow : Sire and Bms both improved racing as they got older and this might suggest Early Voting's
best is yet to come. However on a closer look at his pedigree one could say he's a Storm Cat, Nor Dancer and
Princequillo influence. Storm Cat is on each side of the pedigree 4sx3d 18.75% blood 3x4 influence and Remember
Secretariat is His BM sire with the Xfactor Lh from Princequillo. Also Early Voting has Silken Doll 3rd Dam another source
Of Princequillo and WarAdmiral Thru Chieftain/ Buckpasser Daughter Silken Doll bred to Storm Cat, the 2nd Dams Sire.
The Chart Below Shows a Strong Nearctic Family Blood Line Storm Cat, Nor Dancer, Lyphard, Nearctic with Chieftain on
both sides with The Princequillo Influence.
I'm Showing This because The Sire/Bms Line alone doesn't tell you who The Mares are and their influence isn't shown
in the Mr P/ Tiznow P/NP in this case Tiznow Who's Non Phalaris line is Godolphin ..
Who does Early Voting remind you of Gun Runner or Tiznow ?
EARLY VOTING C, 2019 DP = 0-0-4-0-0 (4) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.00
what worked in the Preakness on message 1147
The Winner Early Voting has a Mrp Sire Line thru his Son Fappiano a strong linefor almost any line in This case a
Non Phalaris line Tiznow BMS, Thru the flow of excellence to Man O War's Sire Fair Copy a Godolphin line Sire.
next Contenders with Improving speed numbers looked pretty good.
Bris improving Numbers 3 races or more. only 3 listed
Early Voting 86- 91- 111 WON
Epicenter 90-93-98-101-101 -2nd
Equibase Improving Numbers- 5 Qualfiers
Early Voting & Creative Minister With 20 point+ Jump in the numbers 1st &3rd
Early Voting 79-81-*102 First
Epicenter 79-95-97-97-97-97 -105 2ND
Creative Minister 84-88-*108 3RD *20 pt jump in last
Skippy and Armagnac OTM
Beyer Improving Numbers
Early Voting 76-87-96 WON
Creative Minister 76-82-93 3rd
Armagnac, Skippy OTM
Variant Equaled or better in a race. (Shows they belong imo)
Early Voting in last 0 variant (100) +8 over track distance Variant WON 96 Beyer
Creative Minister 94 +2 92 Beyer 3rd
Epicenter Missed in the Derby 89 -3 from Variant, Met variant in 5
CMP s/s index 1.00 or less positive
all But Creative Minister
High Cmp stamina Number 1.06 or Higher negative
Creative Minister 1.53 NEGATIVE for the win
1.00 below with 20 dosaqge points positive angle
Fenwick , Happy Hack OTM
Graded Stakes Winners
-Secret Oath g1 win, g2 win -- 4th
Early Voting g3 win WON
Epicenter 2 g2 wins 2nd
Simplification 1 g2 win OTM
No graded stakes Races -negative for the Win
Reine mares 5 Generatio and TFF total 10 or more
Early Voter 16 WON, Creative Minister 12, 3rd,Epicenter 11, 2nd
Secret Oath 10, 4th, (Happy Jack, Fenwick, Armagnac -OTM)
Stamina Chef within 4 Generations
Epicenter 2, & 4 stam Chefs on Dam Side
Happy Jack, Armagnac both OTM
No Stam Chefs within 5 generations Negative
Skippy only one
Large Heart Mares And Sires in 5 Gen. in a passing Position
Early Voting 3, won, Secret Oath 5, 4th, Creative Minister 1, 3rd
4 otm- Fenwick 1,Happy Jack 4,Armagnac 5,Skippy 1
Big 4 Large Heart in a PP 6x6 or closer -positive
Secret Oath Princequillo 4th generation -4th place.
OTm Happy Jack, Skippy
!0 + female family Positions within 5 generation did not work out
Missed The Top 3.
Who does Early Voting remind you of Gun Runner or Tiznow ?
Neither one…Storm Cat.
AH HA, That's what I thought !
I found this Interesting about Early Voting, Winning the Withers Stakes by 4 1/2 lengths over Un Ojo on a Muddy Track,
by a slow 9f time in 1.55.90,In Hand 3-4 wide held being clear Comes Back and wins the Wood same distance 9f in 1.47.96 about 40 lengths faster raw time. In the Withers the track variant is 28 (100-28=72) he is given a 68 -4 from the variant geared down 3-4 wide and clear from the field, awarded a 87 Beyer,
in the Wood a very fast track, he gets nipped at the wire by Mo Donegal perfect dream trip by
by a neck, in a very fast 1.47.4, with good splits, they gave a variant - faster than the last 3 year variant they have for use
the -- is the distance variant 100 on a level playing field . Early Voting +8 is a 108 variant ,awarded 96 Beyer, Skippy in the same race
3.5 lengths behind EV 104 to the variant +4, 88Beyer.
In the Withers He was geared down and had room to run faster on the Muddy Track, Meanwhile as Steve Colbert says
Un Ojo 2nd to EV in the Withers races first and Wins The Arkansas Derby and touted by Many because it was a Surprise to many
including Me, IMO later this was a distraction from E V before the Wood.
Off track, Super fast Track He belonged. Here is the results for his 3 graded stakes races. g3-g2 g1 in order.
His Preakness Time 9 3/16 1.54.54, is faster than his off track 9f Withers time 1.55.90 geared down My track. 4 1/2 Length win.
|022||WITHERS STAKES||G3||EARLY VOTING||CHAD C. BROWN||9-b||9 F||UN OJO||GILDED AGE5||1:55.90||MY, 11R, BY 4½ L.|
|2022||WOOD MEMORIAL STAKES||G2||MO DONEGAL||TODD A. PLETCHER||3-g||9 F|
How Message 1136 data did in the Preakness. data for the Win.
Early Voting 12 Positive angles from this list
-Must have run in the Derby. The six that didn't, were Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini and Red Bullet. Cloud Computing,
Swiss SkyDiver(F), RomBauer
Winner Early Voting did not run in The Derby, Fresh horse worked out
Add Early Voting to this list, a recent trend.-----Carrying the RAN sire line is a positive factor. A winnerFenwick, Early Voting WINNER, Secret Oath, Armagnac, Skippylongstocking---
Beyer figure of 103 or higher in at least one of last two starts. 17 of the last 18 Derby winners qualified on this factor. Prairie Bayou was the only Preakness winner of the last 18 that did not qualify on this factor.
none Epicenter 102 just missed. No qualifiers in This Race EV a 96, Now 2 Prairie Bayou & E V,---
Won last start before the Kentucky Derby. : NO 2nd in last
Secret Oath, Epicenter,
Carry War Admiral in the X passing position on the dam side for all colts or on either side for a filly because she gets two X chromosomes
Secret Oath, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting, Happy Jack. Yes for EV
La Troienne In a passing position not noted above with War Admiral- yes
Simplification, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting WON, Happy Jack
Carry Princequillo in The X passing PositionsSecret Oath, Fenwick, Early Voting WINNER, ArmagnacSkippylongstocking
-final Q qualifiers 25.39 or faster
Simplification 25.05 Derby, Creative Minister 24.13, 5.97 1/16Secret Oath 25.38 1/8 12.96 Oaks, Early Voting 24.37,1/8 12.35- WinnerSkippylongstocking 24.31 1/8 12.23 Wood------Speed numbers -------Bris---Beyer--Equibase
Bris high Early Voting 111 Winner, Beyer Epicenter 102 -2nd, Equibase Creative Minister 108 3rd
Top Number for each Got the Trifecta..
Simplification 98 96 ---- 101Creative Minister 101 92 108Fenwick 63 88 54Secret Oath 103 94 105Early Voting 111 96 102Happy Jack 81 83 81Armagnac 97 93 92Epicenter 101 102 105
Skippylongstocking 107 98 97----
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 104/ 93 SPEED 104
*Early Voting 95 104/111 111- WINNER, *Skippylongstocking 88 97/111 107
Just Missed Secret Oath(f) 101 109/93 103
* Wood Souped up track imo
----Back Speed :111 Early Voting WINNER107 Skippylongstocking 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Secret Oath 97 Happy Jack 97 Armagnac 74 Fenwick-Speed Last Race :111 Early Voting-WINNER 107 Skippylongstocking 103 Secret Oath 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Armagnac 81 Happy Jack 63 Fenwick--Early Pace Last Race:103 Epicenter 101 -2nd Secret Oath 95-4th Early Voting 95-First, Armagnac 91 Creative Minister 90 -3RDSimplification 88 Skippylongstocking 84 Fenwick 76 Happy Jack--Late Pace Last Race :111 Early Voting 111 WINNER Skippylongstocking 102 Creative Minister 93 Secret Oath 92 Armagnac 88 Simplification 86 Epicenter 65 Happy Jack 38 Fenwick-Average Distance Surface Speed :Early Voting 111- First,Creative Minister 101,Skippylongstocking 101,Epicenter 100Simplification 95, Secret Oath 94, Armagnac 94, Happy Jack 89, Fenwick 69-
Days Off :Early Voting 42 Winner, Skippylongstocking 42, Fenwick 42. Resting Worked out this year.
--Rasmussen Factor; Not the Winner
Secret Oath, Simplification, Creative Minister, Happy Jack
How Message 1124 Data did in the Preakness for the Win:
good angle For Early Voting He had both Angles. Conduit 9b Idle Fancy B classification
has 2 Preakness Winners.
: WINNER P/N E8 Early Voting had 2 Previous Long Nick Preakness Winners
MR P / Man O War (S) is the long Nick
Early Voting: Fappiano/In reality is shorter nick
Smarty Jones 2004 : Mr P/ Inreality Short Nick
Real Quiet 1998 : Fappiano/ Inreality Short Nick
Note 2nd and 3rd Place Epicenter and Creative Minister Had Long Nicks also
6 entrants Had nicks/
Preakness previous Condit Mare Tfemale Family
Early Voting CMP Conduit 9b Idle fancy Hill Prince 1950
Skippy was the only other one with this
2022 Preakness 5/21/22 Race 13: by post position
Who said Belmont Stakes !
4 or more Tf Families in 5 generation chart listed,: at least 4 horses counted
For each TF family listed within 5 generations, 1st family listed Tail Family 6 or more
if more than 6 listed it got help somewhere else within 5 generations
the same for Sire family tf more than 5 and Bms Line if more than 4.
2nd Family listed Sire Family 5 or more 3rd Family listed BMSire Family 4 or more.
also listed families with at least 4 horses or more within 5 generations.