smartyslew said...

Un Ojo 2nd to EV in the Withers races first and Wins The Arkansas Derby and touted by Many because it was a Surprise to many

Nobody touted Un Ojo in the Rebel.  If they did, he wouldn't have gone off at 70+ odds.   

I played him is that he was the only horse in the field who had actually run 9F ---  2nd in a graded stakes race (Withers).    Just seemed logical.  Never even had to look at his pedigree or figures. 

EV didn't run in the Rebel so he wasn't a consideration.  (and Un Ojo didn't run in the Preakness).   However, anyone making a "pedigree play" in the Rebel would have put Stellar Tap on the ticket, which would have been a mistake since he ran 9th. 
 

I remember after the KY Derby we all went "looking" for why Mine That Bird won.  Before the race, nobody had him.  He belonged, but nobody saw it.   Thus, looking for why a horse belonged in a race, after the race, isn't part of my handicapping anymore.  Becuase there is ALWAYS a reason a horse wins, just that we have to be able to see it BEFORE it happens.  :) 


Moving on to the Preakness, Creative Minister was basically an unknown horse;  AFTER it became widely known that the connections supplemented him for $150K (which included knowing the trainer McPeek had 10% ownership and was also kicking in part of that fee), there were still plenty of people who were asking "who is creative minister? I never heard of that horse" before the race.   

Some wagered him based on his 20 point figure leap.   (I actually thought that was a BAD sign....huge speed figure leaps often denotes a horse headed for a regreession, same reason I didn't trust EV).   Combined with his mare index (way over the limit for classic distance, more speed than stamina) he was never a win candidate for me in the Preakness.      If I had not already been "on" him since February, when I saw his work against Rattle N' Roll who was a G1 winner at the time and he just looked better to me and had not even raced yet,  I would not have used him at all.   

Finally (the problem I always have, from playing Oaklawn daily) is that Bris figures and track variant just don't work most of the time.  During the season I experimented using Bris data "by the book".  I had from January 22 to May 1st to test it out, so I used that "formula" about 1x a week.    I went home with empty pockets.   If they worked, more people would have winning trifectas.  But, they don't.   

 I guess if you trust the Bris figures you can go by them.   I don't trust them so I don't.   That's when I just trust my eyes.  Only reason I stayed on CM to run ITM in the Preakness was because it was pretty obvious he had a lot of upside watching his workout before he ever raced in a race at all. 

I think post-race analysis should include not just pedigree and Bris figures, but what do we *see*.   Sometimes our eyes are right and sometimes wrong.  Seeing how easily Mo Donegal mowed EV down in the stretch in the Wood was what made me get off him.   Would I do that again?   Probably.   I win plenty of races using my eyes that way...... and not figures or pedigree.   (Stellar Tap in the Rebel had the pedigree......he ran 9th).  If Stellar Tap won the Rebel, we would all be sitting here pointing out that "he had the pedigree to win the Rebel".   :) 

Just sayin', it's never one thing.  Or even 2 or 3 things.     

I have my notes from every Preakness and Belmont in 15+ years.   Sometimes, the forumula for the trifecta is actually very simple.  Sometimes, not.   On pedigree, Pleasant Prince was one of the best in 2010. Finished off the board (over-raced, IMHO).   Only 2 horses qualified on final 3/8 time in big 6 prep race (Fla Derby, Ark Derby or Wood Memorial),  Dublin and Ice Box.  Both ran out of the money.  So did Super Saver, who had won the KY Derby that year. 

Lookin at Lucky won the Preakness that year.  He had run 6th and 3rd in the Ky Derby and Santa Anita Derby respectively.  He had a troubled trip in the Ky Derby (got knocked around) but many tossed him because at least 2 horses run by him in the KY Derby stretch.  First Dude ran 2nd at big odds (24-1) after running 5th in the Florida Derby and 3rd in the Bluegrass (on AW).  He made no sense to most (obviously)!  
  
THe stats on Preakness at the time gate to wire horses win quite often,  but Lucky was a very off the pace kind of runner.  Then we have the stat about works between the Derby and Preakness.  Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex did not have any works between those races.  

I just looked at KY winner splits  

24.655 48.19333 72.25667 97.75167 122.61

             23.53833 24.06333 25.495 24.85833

Looks like his 2nd qtr was faster than the leaders quarter which I found hard to believe, but on the chart he went from 17.5 to 17 behind.  He maintained a good pace with a slow turn time which very well could have been traffic incurred.  He should be able to maintain a BEL pace, unless they do as Rosario did in the Preakness and get too far behind early on.  With a jock unfamiliar with BEL, good chance that could happen, along with the early move factor.

The figs look formatted now, but I know when I post it will mess up..  First line is adjusted time for RS second is splits.

He will need a Jazil's Belmont-type of run.

sovereign1 said:

He will need a Jazil's Belmont-type of run.

10Þ06=11Bel fst 1¶ :47¦1:12 2:02¨2:27© Belmont-G1 102 8 12¦¥ 7§õ 1Ç 1ô 1¦õ 

Above copied from Jazil pdf PPs, not a great copy

First call 10 back of a 47 half

I guesstimated

24.85333 49.02667 72.515 97.53 122.69 147.86

                  24.17333 23.48833 25.015 25.16 25.17

So 49 first half for Jazil, who cannot do that?, move in 3rd quarter I believe would be in the backstretch.  Rest relatively moderate 25 qtrs

Yes, pretty much and evenly sustained run with the exception of maneuvering for position in the backstretch. He surprised Bluegrass Cat and made them move before they wanted to.

I like the back and forth you and Pistol are doing for the 2 6f (12F) Belmont.
 

Pistol has a crazy Slide Rule and knows what he is doing.   10Þ06=11Bel fst 1¶ :47¦1:12 2:02¨2:27© Belmont-G1 102 8 12¦¥ 7§õ 1Ç 1ô 1¦õ 

Here is two  3 yr old Races carded tomorrow 6/3/22
-

Race 11 Saturday at Churchill  3 yr olds

11th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, June 4th, 2022